The strange thing to me is that since the joint naval task force monitors everything that moves in the the Waterway, why didn't the marines have any warning of the approach of an Iranian naval vessel and why was't there close air support within easy reach of the vessel since they were searching for contraband and had a high degree of probability to get into a firefight. I don't subscribe to the Sirshang conspiracy theory of scarificing British Marines for the face of Tony Blair but it does seem like awfully shoddy military tactics for forces under warfare conditions. How long would it have taken an F 18 under afterburners or even a Marine Super Cobra to reach the situation in this congested part of the world. Maybe the sacrifice was not blowing an Iranian ship out of the water. Apparently though, one time was all we are prepared to let them get away with this type of provocation. But the Iranians are pretty good at gamesmanship, they will probably ease back a knotch.
My understanding is the waterway isn't that small and coalition forces might be spread fairly thin making rapid response difficult. The Iranians are also using speedboats and during the Iran - Iraq war developed fast hit and run techniques against superiorily armed Iraqi naval vessels. As for the Royal Marines they might've been aware of the Iranians approach but might've thought nothing off of it and were too busy searching the vessel. Why they didn't fire back or run I heard an interview with one of the Brits captured in 2004 who said that the Iranian gunboats are faster and better armed than the British vessels doing interdiction and they figured running and fighting would be hopeless and also precipitate a far worse confrontation. I presume you mean the "Sishir Chang conspiracy theory." As I said that is purely speculative on my part but to flesh it out some more Coalition leaders might be willing to sacrifice some Royal Marines presuming that like the 2004 situation they would be returned eventually. In the meantime though they have an issue to rile up the British public with. Even if the Marines are returned anger over that they were captured in the first place would maintain political support for involvement in the region and having a hardline against Iran. As I said I'm mainly putting this out for discussion and don't think it is that likely myself but to point out that a confrontation like this wouldn't just benefit Iranian hardliners but also benefits many on the Coalition side too.
If I were Britain, then I would cut off all diplomatic activity with Iran going forward. Whatever Iran's reasoning for all this crap is, it's a bunch of hogwash BS. First, we know they weren't in Iranian waters. Second, even if they were, then the most that should have happened was they should have been escorted out of Iranian waters. Iran even shot themselves in the foot...so to speak...as the initial coordinates they provided to Britain were not in their waters. Then, they changed them and came back with new coordinates that put them in Iranian waters...when Britains coordinates show they were nowhere near those coordinates. I believe Iran has one agenda in all this...make the West look weak and make themselves out to look strong. Period. End of story. Oh...look at us...we are strong...we can capture a few Britain marines and sailors who are clearly doing boarding operations as part of UN-mandated operations for Iraq. This will show those Brits that we can defend ourselves and our territory. The alterior motives are this is likely linked to the US detaining their personnel in Iraq and the UN resolutions against them in the nuclear row. Iran even got the woman in the group to read a fake confession that doesn't really admit to anything. It says "we apparently strayed into Iranian waters". LOL. My message to Iran's government. You should not benefit from this. There should be a price paid. And, F**k You very much for doing this.
Now that I think about it, I think it is likely that the Brits were deep in Iranian waters. This explains why there was no immediate support or retaliation regarding to this abduction because they. The captured soldiers might very well be in some covert operation alone deep in Iranian waters. If not, then the Brits have no balls just like the Frenchies. We can envision that if Surfguy is on the boat or any boats nearby, there would have been some nice firework!
Thats why they had a female royal marine with them. Convert operations usually involve special operation forces, which dont include women. They didnt fight back because half of the captured were sailors and not royal marines. Even if they did fight back it would have been a bloodbath. Heavily armed patrol boats with iranian revolutionary guards vs a boarding party with only small arms.
This image looks nice but the GPS reading was not taken when the ship was surrounded by the Iranians. It is still a mystery to me that the Brits didn't put up a fight. If the ship is in Iraqi waters, that means there are many Iranian ships in the Iraqi waters as well, How could the coalition force allow that to happen?
I know they could fight by themselves but I was saying if they were in Iraqi waters, there should be plenty of friendly ships around that can support them or even retaliate after the fact.
Thats a good question, and without knowing the details and deployments of coalition forces, it cant be answered. Looking at the graphic you can see the boarding party's home ship was well over 5 nautical miles away. I don't know the operating procedures of the Royal Navy, but they should have had their helicopter covering the boarding party or at least dispatched when the Iranians were spotted. If the Royal Naval gave chase then they would have had to enter Iranian waters, which is what the Iranians probably wanted.
One thing that may not be obvious from the map... Most military ships can sprint at around 30 knots per hour. Based on the diagram, the Cornwall was between 5 and 10 nautical miles away from the boarding craft. Being a geek, I immediately checked a horizon calculator. Under these conditions, the sailors were near or beyond the horizon (depending on height above sea level), and if the Cornwall had figured out what was going on right away, it still would have taken 10-20 minutes at full speed to get to where the Iranians were. In any case, the Iranians would have been over the horizon until right about when they came to the British boarding party. The Cornwall appears to have a helecopter which might have gotten there quicker, but I don't know how long it takes for them to prep it to launch, and even so what could it really do once it got there? Are they going to shoot at Iranian boats with Royal Navy people aboard? To me, it does not unreasonable that the Iranians could have suprised and captured the sailors and left the scene before the Cornwall would have been able to respond.
The Iranian navy blundered and now Iran is stuck. They can't admit to it for fear of appearing weak. And thus forced to take a strong stance. I assure you the Iranians want a way out of this without losing face. China was in a similar situation when the spy plane being brought down and searched. Sino-American relations were a mess. Anti-Chinese sentiment was rampant. Then 9/11 happened, and everything was forgotten. Iran is hoping for someway out.....
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8O5FP200&show_article=1 Iran: Britain Must Admit Navy Trespassed Mar 28 07:37 PM US/Eastern By NASSER KARIMI Associated Press Writer TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran's foreign minister said Wednesday that Britain must admit that its 15 sailors and marines entered Iranian waters in order to resolve a standoff over their capture by Iranian authorities. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's announcement came on a day of escalating tensions, highlighted by an Iranian video of the detained Britons that showed the only woman captive saying her group had "trespassed" in Iranian waters. Britain angrily denounced the video as unacceptable and froze most dealings with the mideast nation. "First they have to admit that they have made a mistake. Admitting the mistake will facilitate a solution to the problem," Mottaki told The Associated Press in an interview in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. "But unfortunately the British have not admitted their mistake." Mottaki also backed off a prediction that the female sailor, Faye Turney, could be freed Wednesday or Thursday, but said Tehran agreed to allow British officials to meet with service personnel. His comments were the first confirmation that Iran agreed to a British request for a consular visit with the crew, though he did not specify when. Iran has not said where the 15 are being held. "We have accepted that (the British request), there is no problem. Measures are underway (to arrange meeting.) They can meet them," he said. http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8O5FP200&show_article=1 Its obvious that Iran is playing games, as in game theory. They know that Blair won't resort to military action to force the return of the servicemen, thus the Iranians have the upper hand. It seems like the UK admitting it was their fault, even if it wasn't, would be trivial in order to get their servicemen back, but has great consequence toward the future. If the west, principally the US and UK, won't do what is necessary(threaten the use of force) to get their servicemen back, then why would they use force to derail the Iranian nuclear program. Iran is just probing the west to see what they can get away with.
This type of thing doesn't really work that well . This is especially true with Bush/Cheney who make our country and way of life look selfish,war loving and foolish. I think the current USA is actually shown by polling to be viewed , by most people and countries of the world, as a greater threat than Iran.
Military dictators, qausi-god cults of personality strongmen, 13th century theocrats, unelected cadres of secret police, kings annoited by god...other than the democracies supported at one time or another by the US military, the rest of the world is one crazy assed place. I'd much rather have most of them think of me as the big drunk football player in the bar that no one wants to f*ck with. That being said, you can't screw with Iran, Any hostilitles would virtually shut down the world's oil flow and cause an overnight depression effecting every country, a new dark age possibly. Junkies can't rip off their supplier.