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Iran Not Producing Nukes?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by A_3PO, Dec 3, 2007.

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  1. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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  2. basso

    basso Member
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    i'm pretty sure biggus dickus knows all about it. in fact, this might be viewed as a Bush success, using the invasion of iraq to get iran to halt its nuclear program. just a (subversive) thought.
     
  3. basso

    basso Member
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    more in ^^^^^ vein:

    [rquoter]Revisionism and The Iranian Non-Bomb [Victor Davis Hanson]

    The latest news from Iran about the supposed abandonment in 2003 of the effort to produce a Bomb — if even remotely accurate — presents somewhat of a dilemma for liberal Democrats.

    Are they now to suggest that Republicans have been warmongering over a nonexistent threat for partisan purposes? But to advance that belief is also to concede that, Iran, like Libya, likely came to a conjecture around (say early spring 2003?) that it was not wise for regimes to conceal WMD programs, given the unpredictable, but lethal American military reaction.

    After all, what critic would wish now to grant that one result of the 2003 war-aside from the real chance that Iraq can stabilize and function under the only consensual government in the region-might have been the elimination for some time of two growing and potentially nuclear threats to American security, quite apart from Saddam Hussein?

    War is unpredictable and instead of "no blood for oil" (oil went from $20 something to $90 something a barrel after the war, enriching Iraq and the Arab Gulf region at our expense), perhaps the cry, post facto, should have been "no blood for the elimination of nukes."

    In the meantime, expect a variety of rebuttals to this assurance that for 4 years the Iranians haven't gotten much closer to producing weapons grade materials.[/rquoter]

    http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTYxODUzNTYwOGU2Mjk3ZmUzZjNlNTExNDIzNjMzMzc=
     
  4. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    That is some serious spin you've got going on there, basso. I'm feeling dizzy. The president has been lying to the American people for 4 years, and it somehow gets turned into a story about how the Democrats are jealous and beaten? I think I'm seeing double.

    I am seriously chuckling at your bravado here. Well… I’m chuckling unless you really believe your spin. That would just be sad and I would feel sorry for you.
     
  5. FranchiseBlade

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    It could be seen the way basso was trying to spin it if Bush wasn't trying to still hype the threat as mc mark has shown.

    [offtopic] mc mark, How is the new job going? [/offtopic]
     
  6. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    Wonderful! Thanks blade for asking.

    It's a whole new world for me as I've always been on the production side of publishing. Now, being on the marketing side, I've got a lot to learn. But its exciting and I've been assigned five states as my territory. You're a teacher in Cali now right? We publish and market state and national study and prep material for K - 12 student assessment exams. Ever heard of the "Coach" brand of test prep? We're only in 22 states right now.. Trying to break into California. But they have some weird ass policies about test prep.
     
  7. FranchiseBlade

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    I'm not sure about what test prep I've seen. It's so hard with that stuff, because there are regulations about not being able to use test prep in the classroom if it is specific to the tests the children teach. however if it's general test taking strategies then it is OK, but there are some gray areas.

    Next time I'm at the Education Station I will check it out though.

    Is CA one of the states you were assigned? If you make it out here let me know. First beer will be on me.
     
  8. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    That's it, exactly! We can't even mention the name of the California tests on our material.

    We haven't assigned a CA rep yet (well, we have but that's another story)California apparently is heavy into online instruction, so we're having to create a whole new model for web instruction.

    But you never know about the traveling! :)
     
  9. jo mama

    jo mama Member

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    i know its not a "blog" or anything so basso probably isnt interested, but i thought it deserved reading...

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071204/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear
    Iran welcomes new US intelligence report

    TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's foreign minister on Tuesday welcomed the U.S. decision to "correct" its claim that Tehran has an active nuclear weapons program, state-run radio reported.

    Israel's defense minister said, however, that Israeli intelligence believes Iran is still trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

    A U.S. intelligence assessment released Monday reversed earlier claims that Iran had restarted its weapons program in 2005 after suspending it in 2003 because of international pressure.

    "It's natural that we welcome ... countries that correct their views realistically which in the past had questions and ambiguities about (Iran's nuclear activities)," Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said.

    Conservative lawmaker Elham Aminzadeh told The Associated Press that "it proved that Iran is not a danger to the world, as some members of the Bush administration claim."

    The finding is part of a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran that also cautions that Tehran continues to enrich uranium and still could develop a bomb between 2010 and 2015 if it decided to do so.

    The conclusion that Iran's weapons program was still frozen, through at least mid-2007, represents a sharp turnaround from the previous intelligence assessment in 2005.

    Then, U.S. intelligence agencies believed Tehran was determined to develop a nuclear weapons capability and was continuing its weapons development program. The new report concludes that Iran's decisions are rational and pragmatic, and that Tehran is more susceptible to diplomatic and financial pressure than previously thought.

    "Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," says the unclassified summary of the secret report.

    The findings come at a time of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which President Bush has labeled part of an "axis of evil," along with Iraq and North Korea.

    At an Oct. 17 news conference, Bush said, "If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them (Iran) from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

    Other Iranian officials also praised the new intelligence report.

    "This confession from within the U.S. administration's most sensitive ranks is proof ... that (Iran's) nuclear program is peaceful," top lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi was quoted as saying by the official news agency IRNA.

    Rand Beers, who resigned from Bush's National Security Council just before the Iraq war, said the report should derail any appetite for war on the administration's part, and should reinvigorate regional diplomacy. "The new NIE throws cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran," he said.

    In Israel, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said "it's apparently true" that Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program in 2003.

    "But in our opinion, since then it has apparently continued that program," Barak told Army Radio. "There are differences in the assessments of different organizations in the world about this, and only time will tell who is right."

    Asked if the new U.S. assessment reduced chances that the U.S. will launch a military strike on Iran, Barak said that was "possible."

    However, he said, "We cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence report from the other side of the earth, even if it is from our greatest friend."

    Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stopped short of disputing the U.S. assessment, playing down the new gap between the Israeli and American views.

    "According to this report, and to the American position, it is vital to continue efforts to prevent Iran from attaining (nuclear) capability," Olmert told reporters before meeting with Italy's deputy prime minister.

    On Monday, senior intelligence officials said they failed to detect Iran's fall 2003 halt in nuclear weapons development in time to reflect it in the 2005 estimate.

    One of the officials said Iran is the most challenging country to spy on — harder even than North Korea, a notoriously closed society. "We put a lot more collection assets against this," the official said, "but gaps remain." The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

    U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains "a serious problem."

    "The bottom line is this: For that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a solution," Hadley said.

    Bush was briefed on the 100-page document on Nov. 28. National Intelligence Estimates represent the most authoritative written judgments of all 16 U.S. spy agencies. Congress and other executive agencies were briefed Monday, and foreign governments will be briefed beginning Tuesday, the officials said.

    The intelligence officials said they do not know all the reasons why Iran halted its weapons program, or what might trigger its resumption. They said they are confident that diplomatic and political pressure played a key role, but said the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Libya's termination of its nuclear program and the implosion of the illegal nuclear smuggling network run by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan also might have influenced Tehran.

    To develop a nuclear weapon, Iran needs to design and engineer a warhead, obtain enough fissile material, and build a delivery vehicle such as a missile. The intelligence agencies now believe Iran halted warhead engineering four years ago and as of mid-2007 had not restarted it.

    But Iran is still enriching uranium for its civilian nuclear reactors that produce electricity. That leaves open the possibility that fissile material could be diverted to covert nuclear sites to produce highly enriched uranium for a warhead.

    This national intelligence estimate was originally due in the spring of 2007 but was delayed because the agencies wanted more confidence their findings were accurate, given the inaccuracy of the 2002 intelligence estimate of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program.

    Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Jay Rockefeller, D-W. Va., said the report showed "a level of independence from political leadership that was lacking in the recent past."

    Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell decided last month that key judgments of NIEs should not be declassified and released. The intelligence officials said an exception was made in this case because the last assessment of Iran's nuclear program in 2005 has influenced public debate about U.S. policy toward Iran, and must be updated to reflect the latest findings.
     
  10. Ubiquitin

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    Bush is a moron. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7127198.stm
    New intelligence saying Iran may not be developing nuclear weapons is nevertheless a "warning sign", US President George Bush has said.

    Anyone else understand this like I do. Bush is saying Iran has the potential to build a nuclear bomb because it is not building a nuclear bomb.

    Impeach Bush/Cheney.
     
  11. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    Problem is is that it's not new. The NIE assessment has been known about since at least last October.
     
  12. rimrocker

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    Here's the WaPo story...

    OK, first of all, if the report was done in October (or before) and Bush just saw it this week, he's a horrible president. What kind of president doesn't bother to get intel on a critical country that we may go to war with and also has the ability to disrupt world energy production? Either that or he's lying, which also makes him a horrible president. My guess is he's lying or he was briefed on the intel, but refused to look at the document so he could pursue his twisted agenda.

    Further proof of his horridness is this quote: "What's to say they couldn't start another covert nuclear weapons program." And these are the grown-ups?

    Not to mention, the war option is still on the table? Well, I guess absence of weapons really doesn't matter to this administration, as we've seen.

    Second, he's against the lashing, but hasn't talked to the Saudi government, but they know "our position loud and clear?" It's telling that Bush immediately references a ridiculous personal marker (his daughter) and doesn't mention the greater humanitarian issue or the rights of women or the barbaric practice. And please... the state didn't just not support the victim, they sentenced her to a whipping. To give him credit, I do suspect the Saudis know our position is indifference and they know it loud and clear. After all, we've given up the high ground on these kinds of issues lately.

    Worst President Ever. Yes, I guess I do hate him and what his administration has done to this country and the world.
     
  13. rocketsjudoka

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    The grounds for impeachment are whatever a majority of Congress thinks is grounds for impeachment.
     
  14. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Josh draws a reasonable conclusion...

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/060217.php
     
  15. ChrisBosh

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    Bush will never be impeached....the man went into Iraq based on ‘WMD’, if he can pull off a war based on sketchy reasoning’s….. how’s this a better reason for impeachment. Fact is everyone knows he’s doing the dirty work that needs to be done, the guy is Noah from Heroes….
     
  16. basso

    basso Member
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    but the spy chiefs told him iraq had WMD. were they wrong then, or wrong now? wrong on both accounts? odd that you place so much stoke in the NIE only when it suits your political goals, which is to make Bush look as bad as possible.
     
  17. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    poor bush and cheney duped by the treacherous spy chiefs.........I bet they would have bought a monorail if the spy chiefs bamboozled them enough. No wonder cheney had to cook the intelligence stew himself, who knows what those meanie spy chiefs might put in it.
     
  18. rocketsjudoka

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    And you? Do you believe the NIE now that it goes against the idea that Iran represents a nuclear threat?
     
  19. basso

    basso Member
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    i don't trust the NIE in either respect; not sure wht anyone else would either given their apparent track record.
     
  20. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    Here are a few articles posted by you in the past prominently featuring the National Intelligence Estimate. If you really have longstanding doubts about its value, why were you posting articles that cite it as proof instead of denouncing its value?

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=130526&highlight=national+intelligence+estimate

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=118263&highlight=national+intelligence+estimate

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=104398&highlight=national+intelligence+estimate

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=102998&highlight=national+intelligence+estimate
     

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