btw: those Videos auto-play for us one after another. Takes about 3 minutes to watch them all. Probably less time that to hunt down the stats for each player like 'holic did.
"Sin tax"? What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas? (To be fair, are you using voice recognition rather than typing?) In any case, which player(s) do you think we should be realistically targeting to help the interior defense? Not Thon Maker.
Go where? Yeah, I went to go watch the game. You didn't, and instead provided stats-only, out-of-context that doesn't prove anything that you claimed. #Context Matters #Watch the Game You were wrong about that game. What those videos show is Wizards wanted Capela off-ball and out of the play as a game plan -- that's respect. And only three of those videos show scores when Capela was on the perimeter defense defending the ball or PnR, and one of those 3 results in an initial miss. I wonder what happened all the other times he was on-ball on the perimeter. We don't even see those - obviously, not drives into the paint for scores. The 31 videos clearly show Wizards game-planned to get our rim protector completely off-ball and out of the play.
How do we fix this? This is like our biggest problem on defense(besides rebounding), dudes are just pulling Capela out and blow by their man to the rim, its nauseating how easy it is for them.
And I'm sure this is what Bzdelik is looking out; whereas guys like @basketballholic -- who are looking at boxscore stats and tying them to their own narratives -- are not learning anything of use to making the team defense better. Scouts don't study defensive boxscore stats 'holic, they watch film. (like me) The discussion is more about how our Switching Defense (and accompanying Trapping the Box double-team help for mismatches) has weaknesses, and how can Bzdelik shore that up so the clear advantages remain. The advantages are that switching can flatten 5-Out motion (a key to beating GSW) and Trapping the Box is a very strong means to send help on the mismatches.
Yes please, I'll take these discussion any day of the week. I'm actually learning things in this thread.
But that goes against Holic's master plan of going up against Golden State in the WCF with a small-ball lineup featuring Nate Robinson at center.
Also I just wanna say this is why House was playing so many minutes last night. I think he's legitimately one of the only people who can stay in front of their man on this team. Even when John Wall was scoring on him in the 4th I though hey, that's still pretty good defense.
Those stats I looked at were my own. Not only did I watch the game, but I rewatched the video and tracked every play. And the video proves my point. Capela is not a difference making defender. He doesn't help our rim protection. He gets beat on switches. OR he doesn't rotate to challenge. He is not a plus defender. And that is exactly why we're here. The whole idea that Capela helps our defense is false. Thanks for posting the video though. It validates everything I've been saying.
Im fine with that. But Capela stays. And just so you know, Capela is giving up .78 PPP on switches(well isolation possesions), that is better than Embid. He's fine on switches. The problem with dragging him out, has to be solved yes but that's a scheme problem we have to figure it out or we just have to get dudes who can stay in front of their man.
If we are going to be anything more than also-rans for the balance of the Harden/Paul era, Capela will have to go. No he's not fine on switches. Go watch the 2018 Western Conference Finals.
Simplistically, there are four places for Capela to be on defense: 1. At the rim or close enough to rotate there if a ball handler penetrates 2. At the rim with a big attacking him on a post up 3. On the perimeter and away from the primary action (unable to protect the rim) 4. On the perimeter with a ball-handler attacking him off the dribble In scenario #1, Capela does a good job of blocking/altering shots (opponent efficiency % at the rim over the past two years supports this) In scenario #2, Capela gets outmuscled at times, but statistically, these post ups are inefficient shot, so I imagine we're okay with this playing out In scenario #3, Capela doesn't really influence the play. I haven't seen many instances of someone catching Capela asleep and cutting to the hoop. In scenario #4, Capela has above-average lateral quickness for a big. He crowds the ball-handler more than I'd like personally, but his length and quickness give him some leeway here. Which scenario does Capela "fail"? And who is available that can do it better than Capela? I've seen you mention Thon Maker quite a few times, but where is he better than Capela defensively? Do you have any video/stats to back that up? I'm not trying to attack you here, but you state things as if they are a matter of fact and expect everyone else to fall in line. Would love to see the evidence that makes you hold these convictions so strongly.
thanks, the vids are awesome but they keep exiting out of full screen every single time, is there a way to fix that?
Good post. Worthy of sincere reply. Before addressing your points, I did not bring Thon Maker up. Some posters here (no doubt done of the same posters that are pissed off we lost Ariza) keep bringing up Maker because they think is some sort of proof that I don't know what I'm talking about. I suggested trading Capela for Maker at the time of the 2016 draft. Because I felt like Capela's ceiling was limited, and he was going into the third season of his rookie deal, and Maker was going to be an incoming rookie. I specifically suggested it for this time right now....to avoid paying Capela big bucks or losing him for nothing in free agency and for possibly maximizing Capela's trade value since he still had 2 years left on his cheap rookie deal. If....we had made that deal...we'd be sitting comfortably under the tax line at $118 million and we may have been able to retain one or both of Ariza/Luc for the same money we're now paying Capela. That's one reason why I'd still do the deal today. I'd rather have Maker and one or both Ariza or Luc over having Capela and James Ennis. We also wouldn't have drafted both Onuaku and Qi in that scenario. We would've likely signed a minimum salary center to slog minutes and would've perhaps either traded both those picks for a higher pick, or traded one of the picks (Onuaku, a pick that I felt was a wasted pick before it was made, that we had to pay Dallas a couple million to dispose of for us) for a future pick while drafting and stashing Qi. We could have conceivably signed Ariza at 2/18 and Luc at 2/10 with the money we spent on Capela. And in my opinion we would have been no worse than we are now with Maker having 2 seasons under his belt with Harden and 1 with Paul. So there's that. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Let's talk about your 4 points. 1. He has improved in this area. In my opinion as much as he's capable of. What he is not good at here is when he gets compressed in space by other bodies. As long as he has space to gather and enough time to get ready for a driver then he's decently effective. Where he's not effective is if he gets attached by a cutter from any angle other than zero or if a power driver fits right into his chest. How many times is he just hanging out by the rim though? Not very often. Practically everybody except Utah is running single big lineups. Even the Wizards, after their recent melee a week back have abandoned their double big lineup to go with one big and 4 perimeter players. So everybody is attaching those single big lineups by:.......putting the single big in switches and making them defend smalls in iso or sign-up shooters. So this scenario simply does not unfold very often and when it does it's usually the result of the defense being broken down and multiple bodies stacked up at the lip. 2. Another scenario that rarely happens. There's just not that many post up bigs. The really good teams that we have to beat in the playoffs know better. They pick their spots for post-ups when the efficiency of the matchup swings in their favor. Post-up play is not a issue. 3. Our defensive problems here are not unique. It's the nuance of a single big lineup. They do the same thing against AD, Embiid, and Draymond. The difference between Capela and AD/Draymond (and Tucker/Luc/Ariza) is that AD/Draymond (and Tucker/Luc/Ariza) find ways to be disruptive anyways. Capela can't. He can't take his man and still help. Capela has to deny the ball. And then if his man gets the ball, he has to either defend the drive and give up the 3 or he's got to commit too far to challenging the 3 and then he gets beat on the drive. Those guys like AD/Draymond/Tucker/Luc/Ariza can cheat off their man, help, disrupt driving and passing lanes, even invite the pass, and still recover to contest the 3 or pick up an attempted blow-by. Capela cannot. And that increases spacing for the opponent and makes him useless defensively. Yes, he's out of the play, standing around, and he's also off the defensive glass. Double loser. That's why I say his rim protection is meaningless. It's just not important. And it's becoming less important every day as the whole league shifts to single big lineups. But here's the kicker. More and more teams, just like the Wizards recently have, are spreading the floor with a big man that can shoot the 3. Markieff and Bryant last night.....can both pop the 3. Brook Lopez, yes, Thon Maker. Everybody is doing it......except Clint. Clint can't shoot. So opponents can keep a legit big man in to help hedge our PnR and then spread us out on the other end with their shooting 5. OR worse yet, switch Capela onto a shooter and then their big goes to the offensive glass and kills us. We're not countering. And Capela simply isn't good enough to counter. 4. I'm sorry. Capela may have MOMENTS when he's good for a possession where he gets switches into an iso. But over the course of a 7-game playoff series against the likes of Curry/Durant it doesn't work. And really against most upper class perimeter iso players it doesn't work. That's why when he gets targeted in iso MDA takes him out. 3 and 4 are what happens most often nowadays with Clint. Both are lasers for us. If he could shoot the 3 he might be able to mitigate the defensive mismatches enough to justify keeping him in there. But even we go up against legit playoff defenses like the Pels, Warriors, Celts, Sixers, etc., our vaunted PnR efficiency goes down and the opponent switch/iso efficiency and offensive rebounding efficiency go through the roof. Thanks for the question. Hope this helps explain my position on some of these things.
WE'VE GOT IT. The difference between you and the rest of us is that we believe in Capela despite whatever stats or situations you can come up with to prove your point. We believe his positives outweigh his negatives. Some of us like to see the team stick with the homegrown talent and actually see them develop. There is a tradition with the Rockets and the great international centers we've drafted, some of us like seeing the team attempt to continue that with Clint. We believe in him, you don't and you've made yourself very clear. Agree to disagree with the rest of us and stop beating a dead horse. Your act is getting old.
