Interesting contract note on Former Astro Beltran's Contract

I would think twice about comparing Lance and Beltran as equal hitters... as a pure hitter, using OPS, Lance is one of the BEST in baseball (top 10 basically every year). His WORST OPS year of the last 6 years (.927 in 2003) is BETTER than Carlos' BEST OPS year (.915 in 2004... which is significantly above his career average). Stop looking only at HR's (which Lance still beats Beltran at over the last 6 years anyways).

Now, take into account defense, which position they play, speed/base-running, looks, charisma... whatever... the MAIN reason Beltran is getting paid more than Berkman is because he hit like a GOD in the playoffs in 2004.

And, just to take it one step further, when you look at their career playoff performances... Lance has had TWO great post-seasons, compared to Beltran's amazing one... and the latter wasn't enough to get us over the hump, but the former was. We now know that Lance is an awesome post-season player... who's proven it more than once. Beltran could have just gotten into the hottest groove of his life... at the perfect time.

 

The difference is that Berkman doesn't have a positive career path. Berkman's career has been pretty flat, with his power numbers actually decreasing recently (his best two power years being 2002 and 2001). Beltran, on the other hand, has consistently improved over his years in the league, with last year being the one outlier. Comparing career averages is very misleading as a result. As I mentioned earlier, Berkman is better at getting on base (thus the higher OPS). But as a slugger, Beltran's slugging % is fairly comparable (outside of last year). Berkman's not the traditional power slugger. In fact, he's not even a top-tier slugger at his position: Pujols, Delgado, Konerko, Thome, Giambi, Howard, Dunn, Derrek Lee, and Ortiz (if you put him at 1st) would all be bigger sluggers. He's certainly a great hitter, but not the traditional slugger. As for the OPS - Berkman's been top 10 in OPS twice in career - not basically every year.

As for postseason performances, Beltran is 1-for-1 in terms of postseason success. But beyond that, making any decisions based on whether Berkman or Beltran are "good" postseason players is silly - its the ultimate in small sample sizes. You'll make some very bad contract decisions if you base anything on playoff numbers. Beltran was worth his deal because he was close to a 40-40 guy that year, with 100 RBIs (out of the #2 spot in our lineup and on a terrible KC team). Certainly the postseason helped the glamour aspect, but his regular season numbers - and the fact that he had improved in each of his years in the major leagues - spoke for themselves.

 

So basically, you agree that Berkman gets on base more (which is very important... but you treat it as if he led the league in outfield assists), you agree that Berkman has been a better "slugger" (but that is negated because he isn't the number 1 slugger at his position, and he's somehow he's on the downside of his career... let alone his great slugging numbers this year so far)... and you still think Beltran is possibly worth his contract, and Lance is overpaid.

Lance is in the prime of his career... a career that he has been in the top 10 (I meant to say in the NL) in OPS in 4 out of the 5 years he's been a full-time player (6th in 01, 7th in 02, 6th in 04, 9th last year... and he's on pace to be right there this year as well). You say he's on the downside of his caree if you're basing in on HR's, and that is a flawed argument... his pace in 05 was better than his other years... he just had less games. His pace this year is still great too.

We all know Beltran isn't the guy who was so hot in 2004... and if he continues on his upward "trend" (of course, excluding last year), he will carve out a nice career. But, at the end of both of these guy's tenures, Lance will own him in HR, walks, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and World Series appearences.

I don't care if you don't think Lance is the best first baseman out there, or you don't think he has many good years left but he's definitely worth his contract more than Beltran is worth his... and that was the original argument.

 

One thing you mention, Major, is that Lance's career path has been pretty flat. But it has been flat at a very high level. When he's been healthy, Lance has consistently been a very fine hitter. Beltran, on the other hand, cannot necessarily say the same thing. The guy can be very up and down, and while you might could make a case that Lance is overpaid somewhat, I think the odds are much better that, towards the end of his contract, Beltran will be considered much, MUCH more overpaid when he has a down year. Now, that's a projection, so no real facts to back that up, but just a hunch.

 

OBP is more important than Slugging, some say up to three times more important.

Carlos does have speed and position on Berkman though.

 

I already said Lance is a better hitter. He also is a better hitter at a much easier position to find better hitters at.

No, in fact, I said the exact opposite - that they are similar sluggers.

No, I specifically said his career has been flat, which it has, and that he hasn't hit more than 30 HRs in any of the last 3 years. Nowhere did I say he was on the downside of his career.

No, I very clearly said if you think one is overpaid, you should think both are, and vice-versa. I, personally, think both are reasonable paid.

If you'd like to have a discussion, fine. But don't waste my time if you're going to change everything I'm saying into what you want it to be - especially when I specifically say the opposite of your "translation". Beltran is one of the two best CFers in baseball defensively (Andruw Jones being the other), and puts up numbers you won't find anywhere else at that position. Berkman is a better overall hitter - but at a position where its much easier to find decent hitters. Beltran is a better defensive player at a premium position and better speed guy.

Bottom line is all the making fun of Beltran's contract started the day he signed with the Mets. If he had signed with the Astros at that price, most people would be thrilled with it, and everyone would be loving what he's doing this year. It's a load of crap because people want to believe the worst about him and will use anything they can grasp to do so.

 

Outside of last year, when has Beltran had a down year? The last time I can see was 2000, which was his second year in the league. Since then, it's been a pretty steady improvement in his numbers.

The point of mentioning Berkman's career has been "flat" is the silly aspect of comparing career numbers to see who's going to be better down the road. If one guy has consistently improved, and one guy has consistently stayed the same, comparing their career numbers to figure out how they'll perform is worthless.

 

Just to be clear, I have no problem with this - but I think its silly and will continue to argue for logic.

 

The question is...would you trade Berkman for Carlos, right now?

No way in hell would I do that.

 

i wouldn't either. if beltran dreams about being a better hitter than berkman, he should wake up and apologize.

 

Depends on what your alternatives are. Would this team be better with Lamb & Beltran over Willy T & Berkman? I think its a tough call. Also depends who you have waiting in the wings at those positions. I think with *this* Astros team, Berkman's also a better fit because of the lack of good overall on-base hitters that we really, really need. For the Mets, even if Berkman could fit in their lineup somewhere, Beltran's a better fit because they already have Wright, Delgado, and Floyd as middle-of-the-order hitters, so the extra defense is of more value.

 

I went to the Giants Mets game yesterday and booed Beltran

 

Look... if you go back to that time, I was putting more hopes of the Astros signing Beltran than anybody.... I'm not simply believing the "worst" about him, I'm just comparing his overall numbers at this point in his career (or at this point when Lance was his age).

I understand his "value" is enhanced because he plays CF... but c'mon... even you have to realize that the guy is getting paid what he is today because of those 2 weeks (where it was his HITTING, more than anything else, that impressed the hell out of everybody).

In the end, as long as Lance continues to perform as an elite hitter, I'm fine with his contract... and if Beltran doesn't continue to build on his season this year, and doesn't continue to improve (which is a bigger "if" than you may think... the guy doesn't get on base, he doesn't steal as many bases anymore due to injury, and his batting average has gone down consistently the last two years)... it doesn't look too good.

Remember... Beltran was signed to be a "savior", and perrennial MVP candidate... not just a "good" player.

 

I'm saying for the money difference he put up numbers that we can live with and did a damn good job of getting on base.

 

Beltran is stealing from the Mets. I said, before he made his final decision, it was stupid to put so much money into a career .260 hitter. Conclusion: The Mets were stupid. Beltan's agent turned a freakish once in a career hot streak into an additional $30-40MM for his client.

 

I agree with that completley... and I knew most of that could be a possibility that summer... but I STILL wanted the Astros to get him. \

I know its simply daydreaming, but had he signed in Houston... I really believe he would have had more AMAZING stretches like he did in that playoffs. Maybe its the low-key environment, lack of expectations/pressure, low mass media, no income tax... whatever it is, Houston is a place where you can just focus on improving your game, and not have to deal with all the other distractions.

Also, I'm still waiting for all those Beltran "endorsement" deals that were supposed to come out of him going to NY. While he had more opportunities to become a "god" in the big apple, he also has more opportunities for criticism and percieved failure.

 

wow, that's a great point i never considered, nick. i'm unaware of any local endorsement deals he got in NY. but this idea that he was about to become the new face of baseball on baseball's largest stage never materialized. i suppose i don't blame him for trying. of course, he still $ucks.

 

Aren't the Mets paying him for 10 more years or something. They have to pay him huge amounts of deferred money after his contract is up with them or something like that.

 

It would have been nice to have that bat here, but can't do anything about it...

Once bags salary rolls off, we can find a quality bat, but hell, we need one now...