Intelligence Analysts Say (Iraq) War Spread Terrorism

More from Josh. This is gonna get nasty.

Okay, it sounds like that Iraq/Terrorism NIE isn't the only one out there.

We've been making calls all morning. And it turns there's another NIE the White House is apparently sitting on. This one's entirely on the situation in Iraq. And the word we keep hearing to describe the findings are "bleak."

We'll have a full write up shortly at TPMmuckraker.

-- Josh Marshall

[update]

TPMmuckraker's Justin Rood has just posted his first dispatch on the other secret NIE, the one on Iraq.

Rep. Harman (D-CA) has just said she wants it released.

We've also talked to a number of Hill sources who tell us the report is being slow rolled, presumably to keep its findings from being released before the November 7th election.

Late Update: In the course of our reporting this morning, there was some question over whether this Iraq report was in fact an NIE. It now appears that it is an NIE in all but name, prepared in the same way, by the same people. But it's not been given the 'NIE' label because that would trigger reporting requirements to congress that the adminsitration has wanted to avoid. We'll bring you more updates on this question shortly.

-- Josh Marshall

The full report of the other report

http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/001603.php

 

More from Josh... What a bunch of cowards.
_____________

Let's review what we know.

This morning at TPM we got word that in addition to the already reported April Iraq/Terrorism NIE, there was another NIE exclusively on Iraq.

We talked to various Hill sources who confirmed its existence. And then Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), ranking member of the House intel committee discussed the report and called for its release at an event at the National Press Club.

Only there was another wrinkle to the sources. Hill sources tell TPMmuckraker that the administration has been sitting on the report, trying to prevent its dissemination before the election, presumably. And it turns out, from what we've heard, that this NIE actually hasn't been given the official "NIE" label because doing that would have required sharing it with various members of Congress.

The President has already said he's releasing "parts" of the April NIE -- which likely means it'll cleansed of all the important details. But both should be released. The April NIE and this NIE that dare not speak its name too.

And the only way that will happen is with pressure from constituents. Call your representatives and senators. Rep. Harman has noted the existence of the separate Iraq report and called for its release before the election. Find out from your member of Congress whether they want it released to or not. Where do they stand?

Let us know what you hear and we'll share it with readers here on the site.

 

Bush to declassify parts of leaked intelligence report

The call for declassfying the NIE has been bipartisan. Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kansas, on Monday called on Bush to declassify the report so that the public can "come to their own conclusions." Roberts, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he was negotiating with Negroponte's office to have a declassified version of the findings released.

Roberts said he believes the overall report is more positive about the war on terrorism than the portion leaked to The New York Times.


Three cheers for the NYT for not sitting on this story until ater the November elections

 

A contact familiar with the April NIE on terrorism says that buried in the discussion of the report so far is this dilemma: “The report notes that ‘victory’ in Iraq would be a blow to the jihadists, and that failure (especially if it led to the establishment of an al-Qaeda sanctuary or if veteran foreign jihadists dispersed out of Iraq to engage in terrorism in other parts of the world) would also be very bad. Thus, the report highlights the essential dilemma Iraq poses for the war on terror: staying fuels the al-Qaeda-inspired movement, creating a net increase in the terrorist threat; while leaving Iraq in chaos would also worsen the threat. The Democrats tend to focus on the first part of the dilemma; the administration focuses on the second part. They are both right (and wrong) -- and the debate would be greatly served by focusing on the dilemma itself.”

http://www.prospect.org/weblog/2006/09/post_1493.html#010073

We're screwed.

 

From the article. "It will stop all the speculation, all the politics about somebody saying something about Iraq; you know, somebody trying to confuse the American people about the nature of this enemy," Bush said.

Bush said he agreed with the report's conclusions that al Qaeda is becoming more diffuse and decentralized but rejected the interpretation that the Iraq war had made the U.S. less safe.

"This government is going to do whatever it takes to protect this homeland. We're not going to let their excuses stop us from staying on the offense," Bush said.

"The best way to protect America is to defeat these killers overseas so we do not have to face them here at home," Bush said. "We're not going to let lies and propaganda by the enemy dictate how we win this war."

Fox will play up Bush's comments which are on message that terrorists threaten the average Joe and he is fighting to protect them. The other stations such as ABC will show iBush's comments, too, since it is dramatic, but they will show the conclusion that his policies are increasing terrorism.
Only an educated and political oriented minority will bother to follow the latter part or be concerned about how Bush is selectively, holding back, classifying or declassifying for partisan political purposes.

I have my doubts as to whether this will sway any undecided voters.

 

Somebody needs to beat Bush with an irony bat after that statement.

 

fixed

 

I like the solid "whack" sound a traditional wooden bat makes.

 

Iraq is looking more and more like the tipping point issue for the midterms ...

Dem Calls for Release of Second Secret Iraq Report

Bush Orders Release of Iraq NIE

Dems Won't Block WH Torture, Spying Bills

BREAKING: Harman Calls for Release of Second Secret Iraq Report
By Justin Rood - September 26, 2006, 12:15 PM

There's a second damning Iraq report floating around the intelligence community.

At least, that's according to Rep. Jane Harman (CA), the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee. At an event this morning, Harman disclosed the existence of a classified intelligence community report that gives a grim assessment of the situation in Iraq, and called for it to be shared with the American public -- before the November elections.

The report has not been shared with Congress, although sources say a draft version may have circulated earlier this summer. It is a separate report from the one revealed by major news outlets Sunday, which is said to conclude that the war in Iraq has made the U.S. less secure from terrorist threats.

"This morning at the National Press Club, Jane Harman did say that there is an [National Intelligence Estimate] on Iraq," her spokesman, Ari Goldberg, confirmed. Golberg said he had not read the report, but believes it may be grim. Sources at the event say the document is not officially an NIE, although it was prepared by the National Intelligence Council, an community-wide intelligence body whose primary function is to prepare NIEs.

Dr. Lawrence Korb, a former senior Defense Department official now with the liberal-progressive Center for American Progress, hasn't seen the report but has discussed it with those who have. "It's a very bleak picture of what's going on in Iraq," he said.

Harman called for the White House to share a classified version of the report with Congress -- and to release a declassified version of the document to the American public, prior to the November elections.

Democratic sources on the Hill confirmed that the report has been a topic of discussion, particularly because of concerns that its release was being "intentionally slowed" by the administration. Attendees at the National Press Club event where Harman spoke -- a rollout for a new Democratic defense/intelligence policy group called the National Security Network -- characterized Harman saying the reported was "languishing" under wraps.

In late July, Democratic lawmakers requested the intelligence community to write a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, noting that such a report had not been done in over two years. The Democratic sources say this NIE was prepared separate from that effort. The NIE Harman is asking for "sounds a hell of a lot more complete" than the report being worked on at Congress' request, said one.

 

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/documents/Declassified_NIE_Key_Judgments_092606.pdf

.pdf of the released "Key Judgements."