I wrote that because inflation is slowing largely because of gasoline prices leveling. Inflation is judged by the CPI but it's not just consumer gasoline but everything we buy in stores got to the store on a truck using gasoline. It's just a reminder but I'm also making the point that it's a simple analysis. Gasoline prices effect all prices
Gas prices have been elevated and have been coming down. However supply chains easing is a big reason why we’ve gone from ~9% to ~3%.
This is too nuanced for economic illiterates who parrot false narratives, such as the Fed is exploding its future balance sheet the Fed is wrecking its balance sheet Fed’s higher interest rates do not get all the credit for lower inflation, Since beginning its war against inflation two years ago, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 11 times, raising borrowing costs at the fastest pace in 40 years. Yet Job creation jas continued to be robut and inflation fell anyway, as snarled supply chains healed and more workers joined the labor force, developments that the Fed did not control. Consumer prices are now rising at an annual rate of 3.3 percent, down from a mid-2022 peak of more than 9 percent. Supply chains recovering from disruptions caused by covid and the war in Ukraine have done more to lower inflation than higher interest rates have. Now the relative impact of supply side gains and interest rates will shape the Fed’s decision on when, and by how much, to lower borrowing costs. Supply chains are operating smoothly, according to a gauge maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Improved readings on that index lead falling prices by about six months. In April, durable goods prices actually fell at an annual rate of 1.7 percent, which could mean lower inflation ahead. Last week, Fed chair Powell hinted that there will be at least one cut cut this year,
How normal people think about inflation Do Americans think of inflation as a rise in prices? Or, per my story from last month, has the vernacular meaning of the word changed to just mean high prices? The good folks at Morning Consult surveyed 2,201 Americans to find out. The big picture: Some 86% of Americans are worried about inflation, and many of them still define inflation as being a rise in prices, rather than just high prices. But they tend to look at that rise over four years, not one. And they're just as worried about high prices as they are about inflation — two things that often get conflated under the "inflation" banner. What they found: Less than half of Americans say that inflation is an increase in prices for goods and services. Even among consumers with at least a college degree, the figure is only 53%. The majority was split between people who think that inflation means prices being high (about 20%) and those who think it means prices outpacing wages (about a third). 69% think inflation is higher today than it was a year ago. (They're wrong about that; in fact, consumer prices didn't rise at all in May.) Between the lines: Only 23% of Americans think that inflation refers to the rise in prices over the past year. 28% think of it as being the rise in prices over four years, and fully 60% have a frame of reference that's two years or longer. The bottom line: 87% of consumers report that they're worried about prices remaining above pre-pandemic levels. In everyday speech, the word they use to refer to that phenomenon is "inflation." Free chart: These dummies can't look beyond their stupid fears and see Bidenomics! working for them!
that's not how economic illiterate think. they think that they sound kowledgeable when they parrot someone's description of the Accounting mechanics attendant to Fed's policies. the Fed is exploding its future balance sheet the Fed is wrecking its balance sheet
US inflation cooled in May in a sign that price pressures may be easing Inflation in the United States eased in May for a second straight month, a hopeful sign that an acceleration of prices that occurred early this year may have passed. The trend, if it holds, could move the Federal Reserve closer to cutting its benchmark interest rate from its 23-year peak.
Nationwide nixes 100K pet insurance plans, citing rising cost https://www.informnny.com/news/business/nationwide-nixes-100k-pet-insurance-plans-citing-rising-cost/ excerpt: Inflation remains an area of top concern for voters, per recent polling, and the Biden administration has faced ongoing criticism over its handling of the economy. more at the link
the link provides more context, “In addition to being named the most important financial problem facing their family,,” Gallup researchers wrote. “inflation trails immigration, the government (democracy) and the economy (jobs/unemployment/GDP growth) in general when Americans are asked to name the most important problem facing the country.”
The Covid stimulus packages (two under Trump and one under Biden) played a crucial role in preventing the economy from collapsing due to Covid. The last stimulus under Biden, however, might have been excessive or unnecessary. The exact impact of these stimulus packages on inflation remains uncertain. Key factors driving inflation include severe labor shortages (still affecting sectors like restaurants; this is why Trump's mass deportations and legal immigration restrictions are predicted to increase inflation) and material shortages (due to China's extended shutdown and global supply chain disruptions). While these constraints are gradually easing back to pre-pandemic levels, the timing—a surge in demand while supplies were limited in mid/late 2021 as the world reopened—caused the sharp inflation spike. Although the Biden stimulus likely contributed to demand, the extent of its impact on inflation is uncertain. Notably, other countries with less stimulus also experienced similar or higher levels of inflation, suggesting that the U.S. stimulus played a relatively minor role overall. Importantly, U.S. GDP growth has outpaced that of other G7 nations, indicating that the Covid stimulus helped achieve short-term economic gains. Overall, the Covid stimulus likely had a modest impact on inflation but significantly boosted economic growth, helping the U.S. avoid a recession even as the Fed raised interest rates to cool the economy.
Central Banking Forum is taking place at Sintra, Portugal; panelists include Fed Chair Powell, ECB Presidet LaGarde and Brazil Central Banking president Neto. They discuss on the monetary policy path forward, now that the global inflationary has been trending down for more than a year Brazil had been cutting rates and is pausing, waiting for data ECB just cut in Jun, waiting for data Fed has been pausing since last July, still on the "higher for longer" stance Powell said that the US economy has proven to be strong enough to grow without a rate cut; while not ruling out a rate cut, he has not committed as to the timing. it is all cut-and-dry monetary policies talk; none of that meaningless rhetorics---diverting attention away from the central banks's charter---so often cut n pasted by a certain poster exploding the future balance sheet / wrecking the balance sheet exploding the housing industry spending etc
in addition to containing the inflationary pressure, the Fed's "higher for longer" fine-tuning of the $ supply in circulation has also been wrecking the recent de-dollarization effort led by Russia/China/India. The high-for-longer US rates environment has been causing havoc among BRIC currencies, in particular those of Russia/China/India BRICS countries have been unable to save their local currencies from the rising US dollar.
Citi Bike raises prices by whopping 20% in latest crunch on NYC commuters https://nypost.com/2024/07/07/us-ne...hopping-20-in-latest-crunch-on-nyc-commuters/
The Federal Reserve has a two-part mission of keeping prices stable while keeping employment high. For the past two years, Federal Reserve have been focusing on the “inflation” side of its dual mandate; some have spinned the false narrative as the Fed wrecking its balance sheet. As the labor market cools/slows, it warrants more of the Fed's focus In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the central bank is now paying just as much attention to the slowing labor market as it is to inflation that is still running above the Fed’s target of a 2% annual growth rate. With unemployment rising and inflation still too high, the Fed is in a precarious position as it tries to set its key interest rate high enough to discourage spending enough to slow inflation, but not so high that it causes massive job losses. “The latest data do show that we've had considerable cooling in the labor market,” Powell said. “We're very much aware that we have two-sided risks now … we're determined to balance those as best we can.” one can infer that the Fed's next interest rate move will not be a raise.
not so obvious for those who have been parroting the false narrative that the Fed is wrecking its balance sheet !
