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Inflation at its highest in 40 years…

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by LosPollosHermanos, Dec 10, 2021.

  1. adoo

    adoo Member

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    2019 wasn't that great, in which the US economy grew less than 3%.

    recall that we had an ineffective~~ 2-yr trade war, not just against China, but also Canada, Mexico, the EU and others.
    the trade war was a big road block to GDP growth; it did not end until ~ Jan 2020

    i submit that
    one of the reasons that the GDP grew so much in 2021 has been that the trade war was no longer in effect, coupled w re-opening
     
    #161 adoo, Jan 28, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2022
  2. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    fchowd0311 likes this.
  3. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    I agree with the CCP trade war, hopefully we can decouple completely from their economy in the next 5-7 years...
     
  4. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member

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    The problem with the Trump trade war was that he chose to fight it on multiple fronts. By definition trade requires partners. If you're trying to take down one of your biggest trading partners and piss off your other trading partners you're going to lose. That was the point of TPP that the PRC could gradually be isolated as the US increased trade with other countries, who also happened to trade with the PRC. The longterm plan was eventually the TPP group could wean themselves from the PRC through trade with each other. Instead Trump trashed that but it should be no surprise that the Trump's premier trade package, USMCA (NAFTA 2.0) included many of the features that were in the TPP.

    Also just a reminder that we lost the trade war with the PRC. The trade deficit ballooned under Trump while US farmers suffered from lost sales to the PRC. The PRC in the meantime set up new trade deals for soybeans and other resources with other countries including some of the countries who were going to be part of TPP.
     
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  5. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    Yeah, Trump's a moron but his intentions were good...like my brother in law who's an idiot. Anyways he went against policies and programs like the TPP just because Obama suggested or started them. If he would have kept a coalition of countries against them and united those for this cause like Biden is doing we would be in a much better position.

    I still laugh at the idea that China pays the tariffs and so many people believed it. It was just a tax on US consumers who imported certain goods from them...but the people of the anti-tax party failed to realize or really care.
     
  6. adoo

    adoo Member

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    just the facts that capture the multiplier effects of Fed's monetary policies, in particular QE

    [​IMG]
    no, as evidenced by the above chart (monitored by the Fed) which effectively tracks M2





    some informative links that do a good job describing / explaining the multiplier effect include
     
    #166 adoo, Jan 30, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2022
  7. MexAmercnMoose

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    The rest of the world is catching up quickly. Americans need to learn how to "own less stuff". Psychologically, they get tied to material things and get caught up in buying **** they don't need. I'm all for consumer Capitalism, but we need to be smarter overall in what we spend. Slowing down also helps, gives you more time to appreciate certain tasks/activities you didn't enjoy before. I think the most important is traveling, Americans think they are the center of the world, but there is so much to see, learn and discover when traveling. Also makes you appreciate the relatively good infrastructure/society/stability we get to enjoy here in the States. All about perspective.
     
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  8. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Wait...we have the same brother in law?
     
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  9. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    He must get around.

    DD
     
  10. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    Rents are up 40 percent in some cities, forcing millions to find another place to live
    Rising rents are expected to be a driving force in inflation this year and have been an ongoing policy challenge for the Biden administration

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/30/rent-inflation-housing/

    excerpt:

    Rental prices across the country have been rising for months, but lately the increases have been sharper and more widespread, forcing millions of Americans to reassess their living situations.

    Average rents rose 14 percent last year, to $1,877 a month, with cities like Austin, New York and Miami notching increases of as much as 40 percent, according to real estate firm Redfin. And Americans expect rents will continue to rise — by about 10 percent this year — according to a report released this month by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the same time, many local rent freezes and eviction moratoriums have already expired.

    ***
    While the Federal Reserve’s likely interest rate increases are expected to slow soaring housing costs — already mortgage rates have been trending higher, which tends to cool the real estate market — the restraint on rental prices is expected to be much less direct and take longer to filter through.

    In the meantime, the Biden administration has begun reallocating unused funds from its $46.5 billion Emergency Rental Assistance program to help residents with rent and utility payments in cities such as Washington, D.C., Houston and San Diego. President Biden has also vowed to add nearly 100,000 affordable homes over the next three years by providing low-cost funding to qualifying developers, and encouraging states and local governments to reduce zoning and financing rules for affordable housing.
    more at the link

     
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  11. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Member

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    We live in a credit based society. Consumerism is what drives the economy. Cutting back credit and/or consumer spending coupled with declining population growth could send the world into a generational recession. Less credit means less innovation. Post WWII, much of Europe, Russia and Asia were destroyed. Everything spent rebuilding this would be considered productive. The question remains is how do you capture net positive productivity (ie: a much higher percentage of people doing something constructive instead of spending money on food, entertainment and other expensive creature comforts like 2500+ sqft houses and expensive vehicles).

    The answer is excess capital needs to flow into emerging markets (think less of 3rd world countries and more into raising well educated children across the globe).
     
  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    He's my brother-in-law. Sent me a Q video once. Is anti-vax, caught COVID twice (as did his wife and one of his two adult sons). Wants to buy a brandon t-shirt.
     
  13. MexAmercnMoose

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    im down with that, more competition worldwide should wake Americans up
     
  14. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    REITs, robo crowdsourced REITs, foreign investors, investment banks are all crowding in the housing market for yield. This is totally different than pre-08 when Jane the part time realtor started scooping up 2nd and 3rd houses in Vegas or Arizona.

    It's getting filthy and I'm hoping for more Zillow style implosions. We'll need it, or you'll see more smash n grab threads created by gullible idiots who value their precious OLEDs over real human suffering.
     
  15. adoo

    adoo Member

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    this is how QE has affected my cash flow

    i re-financed my mortgage, at a new loan amount = (old outstanding loan balance + additional cash) at a much lower interest rate, then used the cash to re-model my home, vacation in Hawaii and buy some AAPL stocks.

    QE did enter the money supply, via the multiplier, effecting more money supply in circulation, a miniscule portion of which ended up in my pocket, which i used to increase economic activities / demand for goods & services
     
    #175 adoo, Jan 31, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2022
  16. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    You're seeing red for some reason adoodoo. Quoting me off different posts. Very tinman like behavior.

    I mentioned people with collateral can easily borrow or refi, it could be stocks or houses. But you aren't the average American who doesn't have assets that can adjust to the real value of the dollar. And it's not the Fed that gave you money. Banks are still the sole driver of the money supply and can print money whenever they lend. It's just with consolidation to mega banks while traditional savings and loans are drying up across the nation, you get this rich get richer BS and poor don't get the loans they need to take risks.

    I'm not gonna prove crap to you because the information for QE is out there, and it's not worth it for me to pick apart your superior modeling and college textbook that investors wipe their asses with or hope for God Jerome to save them.
     
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  17. adoo

    adoo Member

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    Invisible, u just contradicted yourself.






    you need to read
    [​IMG], when you do, you'll realize that, just like the Fed, banks do not print money.



    fyi, > 60% of American adults own homes, currenthvspress.pdf (census.gov)
     
    #177 adoo, Jan 31, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2022
  18. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    I felt the effects of the US economy today for sure paying my taxes and seeing my new mortgage via a new escrow due to property tax hikes.

    It’s obvious to me that the fed kept interest rates far too low for far too long.
     
  19. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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  20. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member

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    I wonder if blocking a major trade route with our biggest trading partner adds to inflation...
     
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