No. Do your own research and answer your own question. I don't like debating pricks and I'm aware what a deferred asset is.
amounts to admission that you have no idea what ur talking about with your convenient cut-n-paste job that "Fed’s balance sheet will be wrecked" when the Fed was in QE mode, it was buying up marketable securities from financial institutions, expanding the money supply in circulation. the Fed was expanding its assets base, as well as its liability to honor the increase in money supply. Fed's balance sheet, as of 2021, show that QT has started; a dramatic decrease in its asset base, as well as its liability to honor the money supply in circulation. note to Invisible Fan, while Fed's asset base has shrunk, so too has its liability Roflmao, it'd behoove you to stop using terms about which you don't understand
10 months in a row of inflation dropping. Will be normal by end of year. Right wingers hate America winning its sad
while 10 consecutive month of decline is impressive, it is still not low enought Fed's target inflation is a 2% CPI some time in the future, the target for the end of 2023 is ~~ 3.3%
You do realize not a single economist for the fed predicted we could keep unemployment this low while slashing inflation? What were seeing right now goes against every economic theory in the books. Cutting inflation while expanding job growth is something that's never happened in history. Having unemployment stay at record lows will be studied by folks for decades to come.
Kinda like 2008? Money contraction, job growth, lower CPI ........... growing deficits. I can only wonder what will happen.
you have no idea what ur talking about. the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007 and 2008 caused a deep recession, which sent the unemployment rate to 10.0% in Oct. 2008
Federal Reserve is holding off on interest rate Increases as inflation continues to drop. There still Is the possibility of more increases to try to get inflation down to 2% from around the 4% it is now. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/fed-rate-decision-june-2023.html
4 percent isn't great but it's not horrible. If they get inflation back to 2 percent within the next 2 years without a recession, it will be pretty amazing. I don't think they will raise interest rates again as long as the rate keeps trending down.
Hawkish pause. The surprise is expectation of additional hikes because the economy is growing stronger than expected and unemployment remain very strong and also better than expected. Inflation is still looking like a pandemic initiated V turn. US has managed it well compared to G7 and Europe/UK. Spoiler "The dots moved decidedly upward, pushing the median expectation to a funds rate of 5.6% by the end of 2023. Assuming the committee moves in quarter-point increments, that would imply two more hikes over the remaining four meetings this year. Bank of America said in a note after the meeting that it expects the Fed to move in July and September. FOMC members approved Wednesday’s move unanimously, though there remained considerable disagreement among members. Two members indicated they don’t see hikes this year while four saw one increase and nine, or half the committee, expect two. Two more members added a third hike while one saw four more, again assuming quarter-point moves." "Those changes to the rate outlook occurred as members raised their expectations for economic growth for 2023, now anticipating a 1% gain in GDP as compared to the 0.4% estimate in March. Officials also were more optimistic about unemployment this year, now seeing a 4.1% rate by year’s end compared with 4.5% in March’s prediction."
Banks are still on shaky ground due to commercial real estate so that also affects the overall economy. This essentially acts as a non central bank interest rate rise. It is interesting the global divergence between the EU, US, and China.
Weird how the GOP is always ****ING WRONG - economy thrives with democratic leadership and sucks under the GOP as they steal from people and give to their rich friends. DD
Banks are on shaky ground because of liquidity issues. MBS's are still a significant threat. CB's are in a jam. There is still a lot of ARPA money in business and municipalities waiting to be used. They have until 2025 to use it. This money WILL be dumped into the real economy. If CB's start dropping rates to ease liquidity concerns, they risk another inflation run when this ARPA money gets discharged. There was WAY too much COVID19 stimulus. And that doesn't account for the last stimulus being rejected when it was being used for political/election purposes to buy votes. Now the question remains: Can the CB keep rates high w/out something seriously breaking. Personally I believe there is too much energy pent up in the residential market. There is not enough reasonably priced inventory on the market (because nobody wants to lose their 3% interest rates) and this is keeping prices high in key markets.(ie: not oversold markets like San Fran, Seattle, NYC and Austin). If mortgage rates get back down to 4 1/2%, we could see another housing explosion as so many people are ready to put their homes on the market for various reasons.
The bank's liquidity issues (mid sized/regional) stem from a lack of preparedness due to a combination of lack of regulation (big banks have higher standards) and incompetence. CMBS are a real threat as we were over retailed before the pandemic. I'm not really sure how much is left in ARPA (I see $150 billion mentioned by EPI) but in terms of when it needs to be used, "Congress required that all funds be “obligated” by December 2024 and spent by December 2026". $150 billion to be spent in about 2 & 1/2 years isn't really helicopter money stimulus since it will be more targeted spending by states, cities, and municipalities. The student loan debt pause is ending in October so that will be taking money out of the economy. I won't disagree that we spent too much money on Covid, but I prefer that too the alternative; which is spending too little and having the destruction of a lot of small businesses and a bunch of longer term unemployment. Clearly we should have spent a little less and reacted less. We are almost certainly going to be in era of higher interest rates (which maybe just more of a return to normal) but I'm feeling more soft landing vibes. We really need to have better policies/remove barriers to enable more efficient land use.
for April, y/y m/m increase in CPI were >2%; tho it has been declining. in addition to another positive job report today, The inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose at an annual rate of just 1.2 percent in May. Inflation has averaged 4 percent over the past year, but, thanks to the success of Bidenomics, has been steadily declining. Let's go, Brandon !!!
The good news is this war in ukraine will be over by next year which means gas prices will be back to sub 3 dollars. Once we get cheap gas for good people will give biden credit for the transformation. Until gas prices drop people won't notice or credit biden. Americans are dumb people but very simple minded people
as a result of Trump ill-conceived / ineffective trade war---creating many global supply chain bottlenecks---the inflation floodgate was opened add to it, Russia's invasion of Ukraine that drove up the prices of gasoline and bakery goods, the inflation rate proceeded to reach its highest level in 40 yrs,. then came Brandon, w his economic stimuli paving the way for Bidenomics, which has reversed the inflatonary trend. Biden re-appointed a Trump holdover, Jerome Powell as the Fed chair; they took a 2-prong approach to combat inflation, as wel as continue growing the economy. raising the discount rate at every FOMC meeting since October 2021, pausing in this past Jun; also selling more securities in the open market urther reducing money supply in circulation to counter the recessionary effect of less money supply in circulation, pass more economic stimuli, such as the Chips Act and the Infrastructure act. In Jun 2023, the US economy experienced the 12 consecutive month of decline in the Consume Price Index. go Brandon!
