Part of the inflation is cost-push inflation, which is caused by supply shortages of specific items, which result in higher prices for those items. This is worldwide in effect, and in fact is being experienced more severely in other nations than ours as a result of the increasing strength of the dollar, which is still for the most part the international trading currency of choice. This can be alleviated by solving the supply chain impediments, especially by bringing the war between the NATO and the Russians to an end as quickly as possible and the Chinese production and shipping issues, which are driven by poor policy choices being by the Chinese leaders which could be rectified reasonably quickly if they were willing to make the required policy changes. On top of that, the Democrats used the man-made coronavirus panic as a justification for ramming through trillions of dollars in wasteful spending, thereby depreciating the dollar, resulting in inflation across the board. Further, the consistent mishandling of the monetary system by the fed going back to at least 2008 has left the fed with its back to the wall with regards to interest rate policy, which in the face of the inflation from the other two sources just mentioned, have induced the fed to rapidly increase interest rates, which is itself a form of financial inflation, especially to anyone who has variable interest loans, or who is now experiencing the shock of trying to borrow money at much higher rates that are tied to fed driven rates. The increase in interest rates here in the US has resulted in a flood of financial resources into dollar denominated assets, as they are now producing not just a positive yield, but an internationally very competitive yield. This has caused the value of the dollar to go up, as demand to purchase the dollar is strongly higher, and correspondingly it has driven the value of other national currencies down for the most part, which puts all of these nations under extreme pressure to raise their rates to match or even better surpass those being driven by the federal reserve interest rate hikes. It should be noted that a weaker currency generally exacerbates inflation, while a stronger currency typically serves to counteract it to some extent. While our inflation is bad, despite the dollar being stronger, in some other countries their inflation is positively nightmarish, and their currencies are under severe duress. Everyone should be keeping an eye on the Euro, because the Eurozone is in a much worse financial situation than even we are and they really cannot afford to maintain the spending required to sustain their with high interest rates. Remember, until recently Euro denominated bond interest rates were actually negative. This is a precarious situation, which together with the Chinese real estate market meltdown currently in progress, could be the source of significant global financial issues in the months to come.
the intellectually dishonest Mojo would have the world to believe that only Dems do it, when in fact, Trump was the first POTUS to do it President Trump signed a massive $2 trillion emergency spending bill into law, promising to deliver a tidal wave of cash to individual Americans, businesses and health care facilities all reeling from the coronavirus pandemic. yet another nonsensical remark by an economic illiterate you need to heed the sage words of Abe Lincoln, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” you need to heed the sage words of Abe Lincoln, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” you need to heed the sage words of Abe Lincoln, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.”
just the facts, the fast recession in the US was during W's last year in office, massive job loss, to the tune of over 100K/months currently, the opposite is true, steady job creation towards the lowest unemployment rate ever, significant decreases in consumer / industrial spending currently, the opposite is true 2 consecutive quarter of negative GDP during W's time, the shrinkage was caused by downturns in all economic metrics; jobs, consumer/industrial spending currently, the shrinkage has been artificially induced by the Fed raising interest rate, the largest rate increase in 2 decades, to curb/contain inflation so far this year, the Fed has raised interest rate 4 times already; w one more rate hike expected before year-end
But GDP is the big one, as the NBER has said, including in 2008 when we were entering what would later be declared a recession. “We view real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity,” the NBER said at the time. “In determining whether a recession has occurred and in identifying the approximate dates of the peak and the trough, we therefore place considerable weight on the estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce.” And it’s rare for there to be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP without a recession. In fact, George Washington University professor Tara Sinclair said the only time on record appears to have been 1947. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/biden-administration-recession-pushback/
NBER exceptions to 2 consecutive Q or negative GDP as a trigger for recession (these are the more recent ones): 2001 - entered a recession after 3 consecutive Q of negative GDP 2007 - entered a recession after 5 out 6 consecutive Q of negative GDP 2020 - entered a recession after a few weeks of negative GDP AFAIK, we have never entered a recession with job growth.
so too is "the downturn across the economy" currently, the artificially induced economic shrinkage---resulting from 4 rate increases so far this year---has not spread into the employment dynamics;. as matter of fact, in the midst of this concocted shrinkage, job creation continues to grow (to the tune of 400K jobs last month) towards to lowest unemployment rate ever. the robust job creation indicates that , the downturn is not widespread across all economic activities, as was the case during the last recession in the last year of the W admin
This is what I am hearing. This recession isn't just like the last recession so therefore I am not wrong in declaring a recession is is not coming.
also, Not every recession follows two full quarters of negative growth (1947 saw the U.S. economy contracted for 2 consecutive quarters without going into a recession).
I mean call it a recession...don't call it a recession...the consensus seems to be that we are headed towards one in the next 12-18 months anyway in which case this argument over semantics seems pointless (except for politicians). The whole point of the interest rate increases is to slow down the economy (including labor costs) - that means eventually you will have layoffs and higher unemployment - Powell's testimony last month said as much when you read between the lines.
the NBER is the official declarer of recession, its definition of recession is downturn downturn across the economy, and corroborated by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP the NBER has not declared the current economic shrinkage, artificially induced by the Fed, as one, because the downturn has not affected the employment dynamics. ' in fact, the robust employment performance has led to the lowest unemployment ever. as noted by another poster, you can't have a recession when job creation is over 1 million a quarter
soft landing vs hard landing vs (they didn't say it or worse, refuse to ack the possibility) vs crash and burn soft land = no recession hard landing = some type of recession from short to severe crash and burn = deflation / depression The fed said this level of high inflation is NOT acceptable. I don't know why that's such a given. We've done a few years of 10% inflation before. It wasn't that bad relative to a severe recession or a depression.
consensus ???? the official declarer is the NBER; the consensus among NBER decision makers it that it is not one. the whole point to to slow down on the demand for goods and services, don't think there is a direct correlation w employment. case in point, the Fed has already raised the interest rat 4 times, leading to 2 consecutive decreases in GDP. but the employment dynamics continue to be robust you heard him wrong. Powell said that inflation is public enemy #1. containing inflation is the Fed's primary focus
Exactly. The purpose of the rate hikes is in substance, if not in form, to force the economy into recession.
The Fed has artificially induced an economic shrinkage to slow down demand; but the employment dynamics continue to trend favorably
The employment numbers that are relevant are the total employment numbers, not the unemployment rate. Just like virtually everything el.se, they have corrupted that number to the point that it is no longer useful. With regards to the total employment number, the economy is still below the totals of where it was before coronavirus overreaction hit. The natural growth in the labor force is about 4 million jobs a year. So multiply that times about 2 and that is about how many more jobs there should be right now. Combine all of this with the inflation and the other enormous social problems that the Democrat left establishment has imposed on our nation and the world, including the hysterically irresponsible coronavirus overreaction - which they would still be imposing to this day if they could get away with it - and the economy is very weak. That is a fact that the vast majority of people know and are not going to be gaslighted about by you guys.
