I don't think anything is that new except for a few relative things. Debts (but both public and private debts are very high now and have been growing without inflationary pressure - in fact, inflation went down; Japan has a higher debt ratio and their inflation has essentially been zero for a decade). We have a shock in the global supply chain (relatively new) - supply constraints from labor to raw materials to basic materials are inflationary. This isn't a surprise - inflation happens every time we have a supply squeeze (major wars time for example). Then, of course, we now have a global energy shortage that is pushing inflation - again, nothing new here - we have seen this in the late 70s and early 80s when the price of oil tripled over a short period, leading to double digit inflation.
The credit expansion (bubbles) can't be sustained and will eventually be deflationary (bust cycles). We got a huge expansionary cycle that just happened. The fed "short term" fight against inflation with a hammer might come back and bite us with a double whammy.
the last recession was during W's last yr in office, when every economic indicator was down, 2 consecutive qtr of negative GDP; it may happen massive job loss / unemployment; currently, the opposite is true consumer/industrial spending down; currently, the opposite is true
You're probably right that it's a political message for the midterm. I'm not sure what is the technical definition of a recession (there isn't really one, just what people thought of as commonly the definition) but what he said about the NBER is correct. They use a range of data to determine when we enter or exit a recession, not just GDP. So, I don't agree it's lying or even gaslighting. None of this is going to matter in a few weeks to months when we know if we are still going up, peaked, and sliding horizontally or on the way down. But the funny thing is here we have the fed trying to slow consumers and businesses down while the WH is trying to help soften the ride or even can be seen as telling consumers to continue spending (maybe they are seeing advance data that show a sharp turn). Speak to the independent of the Fed.
Its amazing how people are already saying there isnt a real definition of recession. I was todays year old when I learned the USA has never been in a recession. Its only been 9 months since the bar room amature economist were talking about 2022 Q3 inventory surpluses and recession indicators that would some how be redefined. I didnt expect the white house to be so blatant to come out and say recession definitions are fake news.
When Covid hits the US, we entered a recession immediately. That was not even one quarter, but just a few weeks of a clear transition. The drop in economic activities was so severe and throughout the whole economy that there was no question that we entered a recession. You guys can stick to popular media definition of 2Q or go with the de-facto body that decides it. They specifically rejected the 2Q definition. Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions | NBER Q: What is a recession? A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition? A: There are several reasons. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but consider a range of indicators. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. The NBER definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in economic activity." Thus real GDP could decline by relatively small amounts in two consecutive quarters without warranting the determination that a peak had occurred. Third, our main focus is on the monthly chronology, which requires consideration of monthly indicators. Fourth, in examining the behavior of production on a quarterly basis, where real GDP data are available, we give equal weight to real GDI. The difference between GDP and GDI—called the “statistical discrepancy”—was particularly important in the recessions of 2001 and 2007–2009.
it's a bad look for the administration to go and clarify the definition of a recession is and how many indicators need to be negative or positive.. The average American is definitely feeling the effects of the current "CONDITION".
Trump and Biden admin both implemented policies that encouraged tight labor supplies. Simply put, “it’s complicated” or “all of the above”. I view the overall issue as efficiency vs redundancy. It was efficient to lower global energy capex spending pre Covid due to oversupply concerns. It was efficient to lay off tens of thousands of skilled US oil workers. Now it’s tough to scale back up since energy production requires constant investment and skilled workers. US oil companies actually have plenty of land and sea to explore and drill but don’t have the equipment or labor. Likewise, our supply chains are very efficient but something like Covid or Russian invasion caused them to really struggle. Redundancy isn’t cheap, but we certainly need a better a balance to being “too business friendly”.
Has anyone found a new car at a dealership that isn’t being price gouged, err I mean sold at “fair market value” of $6000-$50,000 above MSRP? I’m not blaming Biden on this necessarily but honestly we all need to keep track on which dealerships are doing this nonsense more so than others and put them on a list. Put those f.uckers out of business. - Sorry that’s my rant of the day for inflation normally I would be looking for a second vehicle for myself right now but I will be waiting for sure even if it takes years I’m not going to deal with nonsense
my wife bought a new Subaru about a month ago, it was exactly MSRP. pretty straightforward process but inventory is very low.
I was talking to a sales guy about a hybrid as my prospects for a second vehicle (I currently have my work truck and my wife has her 2021 Nissan Rogue- that’s it) and to his credit he was straightforward, he said look right now our inventory is so low that my goal is to sell every vehicle for as much as we can. The only thing they have at the dealership is trucks and they are moving but they are completely out of the hybrids and the dude told me quite frankly he’s not as happy as you think they would be because where they might be selling 30 vehicles per salesman in a month now they’re lucky if they do 1/3 of that or less. So they have to jack up the prices for as much as they can and they are instructed by the general managers or dealership owners to do just that as well…I went from being pissed off initially in the conversation to almost feeling sorry for the guy by the end of the conversation but it was kind of eye-opening and refreshing to hear the honesty. Not every dealership thankfully is doing this but most are, crazy that buying a new car at sticker is considered a win compared to only a few years ago
I've heard of it happening and it's a little like the housing market the past few years, demand is so high things are selling way above asking price. Where we live the super-desirable and rare models are selling above MSRP, and one- and two-year old used models are selling for more than what they originally cost. It's pretty crazy.
Recession.... stagflation... All terms economists throw after the fact to explain what happened. These ****ers are worse than climate scientists but they get so much a pass to the point where they're allowed to drive in the lane of Real Scientists. Who the hell is NBER? Are they an agency? Do they get fired for having too many revisions and false predictions? No Main Street American really cares about these terms. They don't GAF about Transitory inflation. They want to know why their money is cheapened, why their savings are getting tapped out and why their nerdy cousin got laid off a few weeks after accepting a job at a startup. All of this Orwellian sign posting is because the Whitehouse can't do much in the short term other than to act as cheerleader and both they and Congress rely on an overrated Fed. So they rally The Consumer to buy more, and making out your duty to spur the economy for fears of negative feedback from demand destruction... But hey, the stock market ripped up today despite shitty earnings. It was "priced in". Bad news was "better than expected", so the "predictions ran true". When stonks gud, things R gud. Volume is GREAT for the options casino market. See y'all next quarter folks. The market only matters.
i am (was) trying to get a new nissan z coming out as a 2023 model. a new version of this car in addition to with what you are talking about... it's absurd.
Japan didn't go through a depression. It was a "lost decade(s)". Post 08 US? Look at stonks! It ripped up!! Green shoots!! Green shoots!!
