my 2 cents, in a recession, every economic metric (job creation consumer and business spending) would be down, such was the case during W's last year in office. currently, the US economy has been experiencing huge job creation and historic low in unemployment and huge increase in consumer spending, the antithesis of a recession.
We aren't in a recession by definition. But that doesn't mean normal folks aren't struggling due to inflation.
The Business Cycle Dating Committee in NBER is the recognized the authority for determining when recessions begin and end in the US. Spoiler I know many of you don't like it and likely will not let go of your attachment of the new profound insight from Twitter and Instant Media, but the WH is right. Now, let's do two things: 1- delegitimize NBER 2- point out that the determination mean nothing to ordinary folks that suffer through whatever NBER determines Who Determines When a Recession Begins and Ends? | Stock Analysis Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion? A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, we concluded that the drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that the downturn should be classified as a recession even if it proved to be quite brief. The committee subsequently determined that the trough occurred two months after the peak, in April 2020. An expansion is a period when the economy is not in a recession. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief. However, the time that it takes for the economy to return to its previous peak level of activity may be quite extended. Who Determines When a Recession Begins and Ends? | Stock Analysis How is a recession determined? Many people believe that a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. If the economy contracts for two quarters in a row, that means the economy is in a recession. However, this is more accurately called a “technical” recession. It is often used, but the NBER uses a different approach for the US economy. The NBER defines recessions as significant declines in economic activity that last from a few months to more than one year. They don’t only look at GDP, but also gross domestic income (GDI). In addition, they use some economic data that are reported monthly as opposed to quarterly. This includes industrial production, employment, and retail sales. Here’s what the top five economic indicators used by the NBER represent: Gross domestic product (GDP): The value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Recessions always come with negative GDP growth. Gross domestic income (GDI): This is the value of all income in the economy, including salaries and taxes. Industrial production: The manufacturing sector usually declines in a recession, which can be measured by reduced industrial production. Employment: Jobs are always lost in a recession, and unemployment goes up. Retail sales: People tend to have less money, so they spend less. This causes a decline in retail sales. Keep in mind that the NBER does not publish specific numbered criteria for these indicators. But they look at them to determine when the economy is declining. The normal business and economic cycles are characterized by growth in the economy (termed expansions), followed by periodic declines (called recessions). The expansions tend to occur slowly over 5-10 years, while the recessions are quick and last for a few months to over a year.
I hope Joe can lower the prices a bit more. I have 2 trips to san antonio scheduled in the next few weeks.
Part of it is because of the Phillips Curve, which the Fed still relies upon for their monetary policy. It doesn't work, at least not for the amount of effort and preaching they're putting into it. Recessions are also lagging indicators because you only declare it once you're inside one. Fed numbers and projections can and have been revised and generally, it's revised down. I'm not saying we're in one, but just providing context on why people/media like calling them. There's a trust gap with what the Fed is saying, and it continues to widen because economists and policymakers are attached to thinking that consumer spending is confidence based. So you treat the R word like Voldemort and only revise numbers after the fact in order not to spook the masses into delayed spending.
erick erickson has no standing on economic issues; the only thing he knows about economics is that he doesn't understand it. Erick Erickson knows less about economics than Trump knows about trade wars.
Transistory or not, recession or not....this admin is not in the business of humility or taking responsibility. If you think the country is heading in the right direction then re-elect these folks. We all have different perspectives.
so says one who was silent during the Trump admin, the poster child for hubris Mexico will pay for the southern border wall trade wars are easy COVID will just go away the irony is rich.
And did we ever declare a recession in 2020 once Covid started making its way through the system? Nope.
Bravo on the concern trolling.... when was the last administration that was in the business of humility or taking responsibility?
Seems to be a pattern of shaming average underpaid stiffs as "lazy workers". If the pay is fair enough, they will come. Meanwhile, no shame for companies hoarding trillions in the bank. Bwu-bwu-bwu when the corporation buys back stock, we all benefit! Share dilution and employee stock purchases (guess who gets most of them?) eat away most of that "benefit".
Saw some posts about workers' willingness to work and inferring that they deserve what they got. Everybody wants to work. We have a cultural crisis of shaming people that can't get out of low-paying jobs - jobs that don't pay enough to survive without dependency on the State or people that got themselves into too much debt. These people just hide their struggle with shame. Sometimes it's too much. I read that money problem is one of the highest reasons for suicide in the US. At the same time, while no one is comfortable with paying their employer so little that they have to depend on food stamps, that's happening because it's also a culture. There is safety in a group that has that as a norm.
The interesting part is that labor shortages are nothing new. The only thing new is the creative debt instruments the world creates to distort the economy. I feel like we are seeing three or four different narratives threading together which are all independent of each other, no matter how we want to try to piece it all together and go "aha, its russia ... its supply chains, its increase money supply". Its seeming like we have a massive global energy shortage that continues to disrupt many different industries.
I'm more worried about the prolonged economic consequences of an embargo than the threat of Russia "winning" Ukraine. It would be a repetitional blow for the US and the West, but the cold war posturing is a bit overblown. If US/West really thought Putie would start picking their noses at Poland, Lithuania, etc...we Ukrainians would be flattening their railroads in no time. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-russia-commodities-shortage/ Ukraine Hawks are projecting from a position of strength but Western countries are weak, weak, weak economically. Overall, 2022 might've been stronger without Russia disrupting commodities and food prices, but there's been too much "free" negative to low rate credit and bad loans to shrug it off as Putin induced. It's partly why Powell under oath (like it means anything these days) didn't point fingers at Putin as the cause for inflation. Archegos from last year focused a spotlight on suspect loan making (low collateral, high margin wheeling and dealing by "respected banks"), and one man flattened the nickel commodities market because he was too big to fail with his respected creditors.... The crypto busts in exchanges/banks retested history that boom times and credit expansion generally turns into poor loan dealing. China's economic wet fart is still ongoing...still silent, increasingly deadly. As you know, Canada and South Korea's debt ratios are sour milk that everyone's praying will turn into cheese or cream.
