Inexperienced, very liberal politician files papers to run for President

It will be near impossible for Obama to win Southern states given his skin color. The South will have reservations about voting for a Black president.

 

Why?

 

how is this different than any other democrat in the field?

 

Good luck with trying to smear him with that.

 

they're the same thing, at least in my book, but your semantic mileage may differ. but now that we've moved away from the giuliani style, i do notice an uptick in the number of homeless on the subways, panhandlers, etc. of course, that may just be bush's fault.

 

Then your book must be the "FOR DUMMIES" version, because they're totally different.

Mayor Dinkins used community policing. Giluiliani EXPRESSLY ran AGAINST this form of policing:

"In his campaign for mayor in 1993, challenger Rudolph Giuliani characterized Dinkins’s community policing as “social work.”"
http://www.rockinst.org/publications/federalism/QuickerBetterCheaperChapter16.pdf

Of course, this ignores that crime dropped under Dinkins every single year, dramatically in the last two, after Dinkins created a much larger police force after the passage of the 1991 Safe Streets act by the state leg.

Giuliani has been gone for five years and crime has continued to drop in opposition to the national average at a rapid pace (roughly 25% since Giuliani left office), despite the fact that you have to smell nasty "Balack" homeless people.

I'm not sure if you've said a single thing that was correct on this subject yet. Want more?

 

David Dinkins was without a doubt the worst mayor that I ever lived through. The Safe Streets Program started after the Crown Heights Riots. Giuliani has many faults but most New Yorkers, even the liberal ones will tell you that he made the streets much safer than it was under Dinkins.

 

The Safe Streets program started after he lobbied the legislature to pass it in 1991.

After that, the decreases in crime that were reported in every single year of Dinkin's administration began to decrease even more dramatically. Those are facts.

.....And Bloomberg has made it substantially more safe the Giuliani. That's a fact.

What's also a fact is that there is very little empirical support for the "Broken Windows" theory accordign to most social scientists.

 

Well, Clinton won some southern states like La, Tenn, and Ark. Those will all go to the GOP since there is still a bunch of overt racism in the South unfortunately.

 

who said they were BalaCk?

 

you just compared the war in iraq with the civil war.

 

The Southern states are about 30% Black. Based on voting patterns elsewhere and he being the first Black Presidential candidate, I would think the remainder of the population only need contribute 21%. I think Obama could get 2 out of 7 non-Black voters.


If Obama loses I don't think it will be because he's Black. More likely because he's too smart or too honest to win. Apparently, both of those are difficult to come by in Presidents... at least in recent times.

 

Didn't feel like it to me nor to anyone else I went to school with. The early 90's were just a dangerous place for anyone to be on the subways. You're talking to a 5 time mugging victim from 1991-1992 (my first years in high school). They weren't the "give me your bus pass" variety either, weapons were involved, and the perps were always at least a few years older than me. There was no fear of the police at all under Dinkins' regime. He was a terrible, terrible mayor. If the stats went down it's because there was no possible way it could get worse after 1991.

It's easier to keep crime down when all the groundwork has been aid out for you.

 

The one problem with that is that historically, Blacks have not shown up well at the polls on election day. Only a fraction of that 30% will come out and vote. Meanwhile, the good old boys will come out in full force and vote in record numbers to keep Obama from being the next president.

 

I think a key would be getting the Black vote to go to the polls. It's always been a problem, although to be fair, it's a problem regardless of race, depending on where you are. So areas will have a tradition of strong turnouts, but far too many do not. If Obama can "connect" with the Black voters in the South, and elsewhere, and I think he can, it would make a big difference. You make a good point. All they have to do is vote. Obama can get a good share of the White vote in the South, IMO, but not a majority.

(unless Bush could run again!)



D&D. Cold Outside, Warm Inside.

 

Except that at the same time Guiliani was supposedly making the streets of NY safer, the streets in the rest of the country were getting safer at virtually the same rate.

 

I wonder how much of that National drop was because of the drop in NYC

 

1. John Edwards
2. Chuck Hagel
3. Barak Obama

 

Barack!

 

Well, you're wrong. It was worse in 1990 (the first year Dinkins took over from Koch) than in 1991. Then it dropped. Then it dropped again. Then it dropped again. From 1990 to 1993 the crime index dropped at a geometric rate

That pattern continued under Giuliani. It didn't acclerate much, but backed with the expanded force (and a booming economy and a nationwide crime rate drop - crime continued to decline as it had throughout all of Dinkins' tenure at a similar rate.

So then why does this logic apply ONLY to Dinkins and not Giuliani? Dinkins laid the foundation for Giluliani, crime started to decrease - You're totally contradicting yourself here. If Giluiiani laid "the groundwork" for Bloomberg - then facts (and stats) indciate very strongly that Dinkins did the same for him.