In This Thread Every Post Must Contain A Lockout Update

I tweeted this earlier, but I'll just add this to kill some of the buzz:

Reason for pessimism: If (according to Kessler) the "real" cap on the BRI split that the players could possibly enjoy under the league's latest proposal--assuming very favorable revenue growth--is only ~50.2%, then will the owners REALLY be willing to concede much on the system issues only for that 0.2%?

Also, the league's latest proposal had a 49-51 band, meaning that the players' share of BRI could go down to as low as 49% if revenue shrunk greatly enough. With the backlash against both sides over this lockout, it is entirely possible that the league faces an uphill battle to get revenue growth back on track. Hence, a "straight 50/50 split" proposal from the players may actually be WORSE for the owners, in a sense, then what the owners have offered.

Sorry to rain on people's parade. I'm certainly hoping for a deal today. But I think the chances are still pretty low.

 

YOU WANT TO BET LAW BOY?

 

My friend in Dallas met Jason Maixell's father -- he came to his shop.

Maxiell's dad said that Mo Evans called Jason and told him to be ready to begin in 2 weeks.

He also showed proof of being Jason's dad! And I checked...Jason went to highschool in Carrollton so it kind of adds up.

Take it for what it's worth..

 

Bet on WHAT, exactly?

I just stated certain facts that might--I repeat, MIGHT--make the odds of a deal being reached today less likely.

Believe me, I want a deal today sooooo badly. I would NEVER bet against that.


P.S. CH, your recent up-tick in "teasing gabs" at me is quickly moving you from "Friend" category to "Frenemy" territory. Do you REALLY want to be in that company?!?! My guess is that an NBA season will detract such self-destructive behavior.

(FYI, this is not meant to be any sort of threat. It's just a casual observation from someone who otherwise respects your takes and even some of your jokes on this BBS. The reference to you not wanting to be in that company solely refers to the disdain I know you have for those others who would be considered "frenemies" as opposed to me saying anything truly negative about you on this BBS.)

P.P.S. In answer to your inevitable response: Yes, once this lockout ends, I WILL, in fact, get my panties out of the bunch in which they currently are. We both need a season BADLY!

:grin:

 

Sorry. My comments were not meant to offend anyone. I just got annoyed at your plantation owner behavior. [/jeffreykessler]

Anyway, I was just kidding about all this. Agree that we both hope for a season. #howu

 

I'm not sure what Carl's problem is. All that you did was point out a few reasons why you think the chances are slim of a deal getting done today. I'd think most unbiased observers of this Lockout probably come to the same conclusions that you did. The deal getting done today is highly unlikely.

 

Yo, Bima, what would be the loss that the owners face if they lose the season? They will be earning no revenue but will still employ some personnel and will have maintain the facilities and everything.

I mean is fighting over 200 million dollars worth losing the season when they would lose more for losing a season?

 

There is no buzz to kill. At this point buzz is nothing more than algae growing on the rock of greed and hubris, trying like hell to create enough oxygen, so that interest might develop. Once we have interest, it can interact with buzz and create a new life called hope, and hope is the nutrient that fans need to survive, but we are long way from reaching that point.

 

The problem is that you don't "get" his sense of humor. Don't feel bad. While I do, many do not, apparently. Just look at it as CH channeling his "Inner Seinfeld," and imagine that that hipster goofus, Kramer, is hunched in front of a keyboard.

;-)-

 

It's all good. The significance of (and likely triumph of ego and stupidity over reason and logic) today has me on edge. Your usual brand of "good-humor-disguised-as-mild-abrasiveness" just doesn't have the same effect on me as it did when the NBA was, you know, a functioning entity that put on professional basketball games.

TMacOlajuwonFan, that's just Carl being Carl. I don't truly take offense to him. He's actually one of the "good ones" on this BBS. That is, when he's not trying TOO hard to make bad jokes.

Deckard, nice comparison. You know I'm a "Carl guy". Just blowing off some steam.

For the "hard-liners", it's not about how much of the league's AGGREGATE losses will be made up by the players' concessions on BRI. It's about the economic and competitive impact on THEIR INDIVIDUAL TEAMS.

For instance, the Bobcats (allegedly) lost $20 million last season. Plus, they cannot effectively compete for free agents if the tax-paying championship contenders can offer the full MLE to those same players. Michael Jordan hates to lose at anything. He doesn't want to lose at this.

I just hope Jordan fought this hard when the owners bargained among themselves for the new revenue-sharing plan.

 

One quote from classic russian literature:

Time that we have is a money that we don't have

 

... that's the only thing that should bother players right now

 

Sheridan said that they are estimating this season to bring in 4 Billion dollars Gross(assuming close to 82 games). A 50% split would be 2 Billion or somewhere slightly below. Thats very general accounting of course. This is, of course, the general sum of money the owners stand to lose as a whole.

 

You know what I would do if I were a player or working on their side?

Suggest that: (1) the Union approves the current deal, even though players are not happy about it, (2) after the deal is ratified, have several of the big names (preferably including some upcoming free agents) anonymously speak to the press about how they know who the "villains" among the owners are and this piece of information will be considered in future free agency decisions.

Basically, the goal would be to punish the hardliner owners.

 

If there is no deal after the sides got this close, it will be the equivalent of two guys lighting a $1 million pile of cash on fire because neither side would give the other $20 extra.

 

That (grudges against hard-line owners) is going to happen, no matter what.

Both the players and their agents know who the "villains" are. Don't think it won't affect many players' decisions in free agency.

The irony of all this is that the hard-line owners will need to overpay those players to get them to come to their small-market teams even MORE now, both to give up the big city life AND to overcome the grudges from these labor negotiations.

Bottom line: If the players are willing to agree to SOME restrictions on the use of MLE (both in size and years), then these hard-line owners need to just shut up and take those advantages now rather than lose an entire season under a system that could actually give them all of the benefits and protection that they realistically need.

 

Im pretty sure #2. is already bound to happen. Im sure Dwight Howard isnt waiting anxiously till July 2012 to sign with Portland, Charlotte, or Phoenix. Pretty sure Nash has already expressed his frustration to the Twitter world about Sarver.

 

If the deal goes down today, how long will this CBA last till???

NHL's expiring this off-season, do you think they get a deal done quicker this time???

I know it's off topic involving the NHL, but can somebody answer these 2 questions?

 

My guess is this: There will be a deal at the 50% number with compromises on systems issues. However, I don't think the deal will come today before that supposed 5 p.m. deadline. I think the sides will come out and say they've made some progress and want to keep talking and will reach a deal in the next few days.

I doubt the 50% offer actually gets blown up with the owners actually going to 47% and insisting on staying there-- and basically saying goodbye to the season-- simply because an artificial deadline has passed.

The remaining systems issue are not worth light the season on fire over, but they are worth making threats over and keep negotiating over.