in my best elaine: things just. got. interesting... (astros)

^^I agree. I think loosing Backe could really hurt.

We dont have a definite 5th starter, loosing backe means we wouldnt have a 4th or 5th starter. This better mean that clemens is coming, cause if he isnt we are completely screwed.

 

I'd do it.

You always hate to give up starting pitching...that is what gives you the edge in the playoffs. But this team needs a bat like Abreu to make it through another regular season and get back to the playoffs IMO. Last years pitching was unbelievable...I don't know that we can count on that again, so we need more hitting.

I'd really like to make it Lane instead of Qualls, but I'll live with it. If that were to happen we'd still have Mike Lamb to platoon at 1B, and hopefully Luke Scott will step up so Berkman can play some 1B as well. If Bagwell starts that is a bonus...I think that's the way the club should look at it.

 

I don't mean to quibble but in my mind there's a difference between a "power hitter" and a hitter with power. According to my thinking, Abreu doesn't qualify as the former while clearly qualifying for the latter.

Baseball-reference.com lists statistically similar players through the same age. Current names that show up on the list include Bernie Williams, Lary Walker, Raul Mondesi, Mike Sweeney, and Magglio Ordonez. His career slugging percentage is .512. Compare that with Bagwell at .540, Berkman at .557, Morgan Ensberg at .493, Lane at .507 and Biggio at .436. I would say that everybody above has "hit with power" but not many are "power hitters."

If you eliminate the "Mile High" effect from Larry Walker you get a pretty reasonable comparison. I consider Walker to be a hitter with power (but not a power hitter). He's a line drive average hitter who hits the ball hard and so ends up with quite a few doubles. Because he hits on a line he doesn't have so many HR's but because he hits hard he gets some. From a recent Astros standpoint that describes Biggio fairly well as well.

Finally, I go back again to the fact that the guy drove in 102 runs, more than anybody else on the Astros in a down year. In 1992 Rob Deer hit 32 Hr's (which put him in the AL top 10) and 20 doubles in 393 at bats. Despite that he had 64 RBI's. Essentially he only hit HR's when the bases were empty and the other team's pitcher relaxed. To some degree the measure of a power hitter has to extend beyond basic raw stastics and be placed in context of the ability to generate runs.

In fact I think that functionally you have a fairly reasonable historical Astros comparison for Abreu in Craig Biggio. I would describe classic Biggio as a hitter with power as well. Biggio spent the late 90's shuffling between #1, #2, & #3 in the order and I believe that his strongest year statistically came when he hit third. Even though Bagwell was a better average hitter than Biggio he spent quite a bit of time at #4 because his ability to drive in runs was so superior.

In discussing batting order, I traditionally think in terms of the Whitey Herzog small ball ideal with a guy like Tom Herr who has some elements of #1 & #3 guys but specifically doesn't strike out and can lay a bunt and make contact on the hit and run. I appreciate that that role doesn't really exist any more, so I guess you put him at #2. I have an old inhibition against a strike out machine like Abreu at #2 but it doesn't really apply anymore.

I would be fairly sure, however, to place Abreu in the top 1/3 of the order because he has both the ability to drive in runs and the ability to score runs. Imagine we go Biggio, Taveras, Abreu, Berkman, Ensberg, Lane followed by whatever. (Though I am lothe to put Taveras at the top given his obscene strikeout numbers and pathetic OBP, but that's a different story.)

If either Biggio or Taveras get a single, and Abreu comes to bat, the pitcher will have to give him pitches to hit because they won't want to have to pitch to Berkman. Therefore he either gets a good pitch to hit where he can drive it to the gap giving Biggio or Taveras a chance to use their speed to try to push for a run, or he draws a walk giving the big bat an extra runner to drive in. (The only arguement against Abreu in this regard is the strikeout numbers.) Conversely, Biggio and Taveras both fail, you still have Berkman coming to bat with a guy on base who is very capable of acting like a traditional "run scorer".

In any case, the only truly poor outcome occurs if 1-3 don't get on. This shouldn't statistically happen often because my 1-3 hitters average greater than .333 OBP collectively but even so, is it really so much worse for Berkman to start the second inning with nobody on than to finish the first inning with nobody on?

If you move Abreu to the lower half of the order he will end up exaggerating his strikeout numbers as well as his walks and thereby creating a situation where the other team can neutralize him if they play it right. Teams traditionally put "free swingers" and bad pitch hitters below #4. If you have a runner on second and are facing #6 hitter followed by Everett and Ausmus you are going to pitch around #6. If #6 is Abreu he will take the walk and you end up with the two milquetoasts and their ineffectual bats. This provides an easy way to neutralize a.) Abreu's bat because he takes walks and b.)Abreu's base running because Ausmus and Everett are... Ausmus and Everett. Instead, if you have a power hitter in those spots whose flaw is bad pitch selection/inability to take a walk they might manage to drive in a run even when the other team is pitching around them. At worst they will simply suffer from the effects of flaws which would exist anyway. Additionaly, if they are slow as dirt and they do draw a walk, when #7 & #8 don't get a hit it won't matter that they can't run the bases.

That's why the Astros used to run up guys like Rafael Ramerez and Billy Hatcher at #6. I swear I remember Ramerez getting a double on a pitch that bounced 3 feet in front of home plate like a cricket throw. You want your "all or nothing" guys to have nothing behind them. If they are big slow lugs like Lane, Berkman or Ensberg then even if they are followed by a strong bat the guy better be a HR hitter because they aren't going to score from 1st on a double.

Also if Abreu follows Berkman, Lane, or Ensberg, they will only act as obstacles on the bases in front of Abreu again eliminating some of his skills.

Despite his strikeout numbers, Abreu is a "dual use" offensive player in that he is good both as a run scorer and a run producer. Since Biggio has gotten old and slow, there's nobody on the current roster that fits that description. I think therefore you would have to place Abreu in a position where he can use both skills. That would be below #1 but before #4.

 

I don't have an opinion on this yet. But my gut is nervous about trading away a guy who I think could be a very good starting pitcher...and a guy who has come up nails in his post-season appearances...along with a guy who could end up being a legit closer.

 

This would be a steal. I actully think that if the Phils are dead set on trading him, this deal fills 2 holes for them....a SP and a closer...or at least a guy who has shown closer stuff in big spots.

On the other hand, I think its a no brainer for us as well. We plug is a guy into our order who is one of the most feared hitters in the NL...we lose a setup guy and our 3rd/4th starter.

I hope this is true.

I also hope we are seriously looking into the other guys mentioned as well.

I think getting a guy like Abreu would trigger Roger to sign.

 

Can we please not talk about getting Zito? He's by far my favorite non-Astro and I'm freaking out now. It'd be the best post-season ever if we landed that guy somehow. He doesn't strike me as a Houston guy at all. West coast all the way.

As far as the rumored Abreu deal, MadMax summed up my thoughts perfectly.

 

You have to give up something to get something. Backe could continue to improve, but even then I don't see him being able to put together an entire season of a sub 3.00 ERA... he just has too many times where he loses grasp of an inning/game (hell, it happened in the playoffs... ATL game 4). Also, I recall Backe's name being brought up in last year's off-season... but after game 5 of the 2004 NLCS, we were all too nervous to trade him because he could be becoming a lights out starter. That feeling soon dissapered after 2005, but it is somewhat back after his last two playoff starts... basically, his trade value will never be higher.

Qualls is our blue chip right now... his trade value his high, he's young, and he still has the great P word used (potential) as a closer, because he hasn't gotten a chance to fail there. He probably could be more than adequate, but he's showed me LESS than what Dotel did... and I had serious doubts about Octavio being able to hold down the job when I saw just how different he acted when he had to come in the 9th inning rather than the 8th.

If we're going to make a run with Pettite/Oswalt/possibly Clemens as our pitchers (and I honestly can't see us making a run without those guys)... we'll need a pretty decent bat to go along with Berkman and Ensberg. Last year isn't going to repeat itself... and the offense must be addressed if we have this opportunity.

 

My only reservation is that Abreu is a player that will only decline from here on out. Qualls and Backe are still young players. While Backe has probably peaked, Qualls still has potential to grow. That being said, hopefully the trade goes through.

The Astros seem to have pretty good success with rotating middle-of-the-road starters with their farm system. Qualls was pretty amazing in the postseason, but like someone said -- having a guy of that caliber as your 7th inning guy is a luxury.

If the trade goes through, we're going to have to go out and get another reliable bullpen arm to get lefthanders out. Gallo blows

 

Abreu's 31. Thirty-one. Folks act like he's over the hill or something. He's still in his prime, and his best two or three years may actually be ahead of him. I do this deal in a New York minute, and I *love* Qualls and Backe.

 

Abreu is has a lot left in the tank...he will start declining in a few years. His contract is good for another 2 years, so by trading for him, we are getting a player in his prime.

Trading last years #4 pitcher along with a setup man for one of the best all around talents in the league??? You have to pull the trigger on that one.

 

So many of you are drastically overrating Abreu.

 

I'd trade Qualls and Backe for a lot lesser players than Abreu (still All stars, mind you)... you have to trade from your strength (and for the Astros, that happens to be younger set-up guys, 3rd-4th starters).

I also said I wasn't willing to trade Lidge for him (primarily because he's pretty damn good, but also because he's still not going to break the bank for another 2 years).

Additionally, how many of you guys knew about Qualls and Backe's potential 2 years ago? In fact, many of you bashed the hell out of Qualls as late as September... he had a dominant series against the Cardinals, and all is forgotten. He has an upside... but even at his peak, he probably won't be much better for us than Octavio Dotel was.... and you soon realize that these pretty dominant set-up men can be found in a vast variety of places.

As for Backe... if I told you that the Astros would have been better off with an aging veteran like Jeff Suppan the last two years (including playoffs), you'd think I was crazy... but that's the unfortunate categorization of a middle of the road pitcher. A guy who will have a high-descent ERA but will give you occasional lights-out starts. Finally, there are far more "Wade Millers" in the world than there are "Roy Oswalts"... meaning, a young pitcher with semi-decent stuff is more likely to either get hurt or merely tail off rather than allofasudden blossom into a 20-game, frontline starter.

Abreu is one of the most solid hitters in the league... and the fact that you've got a chance to get him while being able to not give up much at all.. its most definitely not overrated.

 

Some of you people are the very definition of stupid. This was a somewhat down year for Abreu but here's a little look at last seasons numbers for RF in the NL.

NL Rightfielders with a higher OPS than Abreu: Giles .905 Jenkins .888 Abreu .879 Lane .815

NL Rightfielders with a higher BA than Abreu: Giles .301 Jenkins .292 Encarnacion .287 Abreu .286 Lane .267

NL Rightfielders with a higher OBP than Abreu: Giles .423 Abreu .405 Lane .316

NL Rightfielders with more HR's than Abreu: Lane 26 Jenkins 25 Abreu 24

NL Rightfielders with more SB's than Abreu: none Abreu 31 Lane 6

NL Rightfielders with more BB's than Abreu: Giles 119 Abreu 117 Lane 32

NL Rightfielder with more RBI's than Abreu: none Abreu 102 Lane 78

NL Rightfielders with more R's than Abreu: none Abreu 104 Lane 65

I could do this little exercise of comparing Backe with all other NL Starting pitchers but I think it would take me the rest of the night. Qualls wouldn't be so bad but there are still many quality relievers in the NL better than Qualls. You guys are seriously deluded if you don't think giving up Qualls and Backe for Abreu is not an overall positive for this team. You seem to have blinders on the problems with this club.

I love Backe and Qualls as much as anyone else and would hate to see them leave, but grow a brain and see what this team needs.

 

It's futile to argue with ignorant people who get pissed off with people who don't share their views. Suffice it to say if the Astros trade Backe & Qualls for Abreu, they, and their fans, will be regretting it for years to come. Abreu's performance here will be solid, but underwhelming.

 

You're a bad Astros fan and don't know the first thing about baseball. I'm guess I'm finished here too. Some people just don't get it. Nice argument though. I love all those great stats you threw out there.

Btw, the Mets just traded for LoDuca giving up only 2 minor leaguers. They are going to be solid this season.

 

This team survived trading Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, and losing Wade Miller.... they (and their 'fans') will survive the trading of these two.

Its not even like they're trading blue-chip prospects who could potentially be future HOFers... its Backe and Qualls.

 

What reasoning have you used? Why will his performance be solid but underwhelming? All you've thrown out is one down year this past year. And claims that he's over the hill, when he's not by any means.

I could easily just say to look at his 1st half #'s, or his previous seasons. Plus we can't forget the range-improvement we'll get with him in the OF. When was the last time we had a big arm out there? A luxury that was nice with Hidalgo..

Obviously Qualls is one of my favorites (sig)...but you hafta pull the trigger if this is out there.

 

Wow, i'm stunned. You simply have no clue. I'm a bad Astros fan? LMAO. I personally think you're a bad Astros fan if you support that ****ty trade.

Mets are going to be solid this season? I bet you said the same thing last year when they got Beltran and Pedro.

Based on your posting here you are a horrible judge of baseball talent and I am glad you aren't working in the Astros front office.

If this trade does go through (and i desperately hope it doesn't). I'll be bumping this thread about 3 years down the line. When Abreu has given us a couple of .280 23hr 90 rbi seasons and Backe and Qualls are tearing it up elsewhere. I do suppose you'll probably respond with some more BS then if you respond at all.

 

Please be sure to add that Abreu has a career BA of .303 and OBP of .411. This is equivalent to Lance Berkman numbers, but I guess you assume that Berkman is just a solid player.

 

I'm not sure how to respond to that idiotic post. I'll let others try, but let me say that adding .280/23/90 to our outfield while sliding Lane to left would be great for this offense.