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In-Depth Look at the Playoff Race

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Sydeffect, Nov 17, 2014.

  1. Sydeffect

    Sydeffect Member

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    Adderall + Skipping class seems to open up a bunch of productive free time, so here we go

    Competition:

    1. Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

    Remaining Schedule:

    vs Jacksonville
    vs Washington
    @ Cleveland
    vs Houston
    @ Dallas
    @ Tennessee

    2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)

    Remaining Schedule:

    @ Oakland
    vs Denver
    @ Arizona
    vs Oakland
    @ Pittsburgh
    vs San Diego

    3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1)

    Remaining Schedule:

    @ Houston
    @ Tampa Bay
    vs Pittsburgh
    @ Cleveland
    vs Denver
    @ Pittsburgh

    4. Miami Dolphins (6-4)

    Remaining Schedule:

    @ Denver
    @ NYJ
    vs Baltimore
    @ New England
    vs Minnesota
    vs NYJ

    5. San Diego Chargers (6-4)

    Remaining Schedule:

    vs St. Louis Rams
    @ Baltimore
    vs New England
    vs Denver
    @ SF
    @ KC

    6. Baltimore Ravens (6-4)

    @ NO
    vs San Diego
    @ Miami
    vs Jacksonville
    @ Houston
    vs Cleveland

    7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)

    @ Tenn
    vs NO
    @ Cincy
    @ Atlanta
    vs KC
    vs Cincy

    8. Cleveland Browns (6-4)

    @ Atlanta
    @ Buffalo
    vs Indy
    vs Cincy
    @ Carolina
    @ Baltimore

    Tie-breakers

    Not including Buffalo because I doubt they make it, and the Texans have a tiebreaker vs them.

    Texans have a tiebreaker vs Buffalo and Cleveland.

    Don't currently have tiebreaker vs Indy (still play them one more time), and Pittsburgh.

    Best Case Scenarios

    WOW. I have never seen a playoff race this close in a while. Almost all these teams battling for the last few spots still have to play each other.

    If we win vs Indy somehow, they will still probably have a tiebreaker due to their slightly higher SOS and MOV.

    The teams that we have no say vs (KC, SD, and Dolphins) have a brutal schedule with KC being the easiest.

    ASSUMING TEXANS FINISH 10-6 (Loss to Indy)

    PITTSBURGH HAS TO WIN THE DIVISION
    1. We don't have the tiebreaker vs them
    2. They play 2 other teams in the hunt; Cincy twice and KC once

    I don't think we overtake Indy unless Texans **** on the history book.

    I think KC has a good chance to make the playoffs due to their schedule.

    San Diego has a very difficult schedule with their weakest opponent being the Rams (they beat Denver last night). They probably won't make it

    Assuming Texans win vs Cincy and Baltimore, Cincy will probably not make it because we are going to be rooting for Steelers to win one and they will probably lose to Denver.

    We want Baltimore to win out the rest of the games (again assuming we are 10-6 losing to Indy) because we will have a tie-breaker and they play Miami

    Dolphins are an interesting scenario. They have a very talented team and a mixed schedule. Assuming they lose to Denver, they have a bunch of winnable games (they already beat NE, albeit before NE got hot).

    Again assuming we go 10-6, Dolphins are the biggest wild-card for that last spot. Their defense has been excellent this season and Ryan Tannehill is showing the potential they have been hoping for.

    The finish line for the season is going to be crazy. So many variables because these teams all play other wild-card teams.
     
  2. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    It's going to be really tough to make it. We have to win two out of Cincy, Baltimore, and Indianapolis and then hope for the best.
     
  3. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Bengals, Colts and Ravens are all on the schedule so they're absolutely in the discussion... but that discussion ends Sunday if they lose to the Bengals.
     
  4. Raven

    Raven Member

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    That article posted at five38, a few months back, indicates that historically, 5/5 teams make the playoffs about a third of the time. As long as the Texans are in the mix in Dec, I'm happy, but - yeah - pretty much any lose kills them at this point. Balls to the wall, do or die, all the way to the end.
     
  5. conquistador#11

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    take it one game at a time. that's football. =)

    doing my best biggio.
     
  6. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    Seems like way too many teams ahead of us in the WC race. I think we actually have a better shot at getting there by winning the division. But that's going to be VERY tough.

    We have to keep pace with the colts and still be a game behind them when we play them. That means winning Sunday and taking care of business against the jags and tits the next 2 weeks. Then pull for the cowboys to do us a solid....after we beat the ravens. Yikes....

    Of course, if we finish the season 5-1 or 4-2, we would be in the hunt but would need too much help IMO.
     
  7. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    You really do have to... so much changes every week.

    Just this season alone, the Steelers have been anointed, left for dead, and then anointed again and its not even week 12.

    The Broncos just got annihilated (Seahawks SB style) at St. Louis, and most teams are going to try and use that blueprint in order to confuse Peyton enough.

    Miami, Cincy, Baltimore have all been jekyl/hyde type teams.

    Indy and KC look strong, are well coached, but each could crumble with any more injuries.
     
  8. Brando2101

    Brando2101 Contributing Member

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    The colts will own the tie breaker over the Texans even if the Texans win in Indy. They are guaranteed to have a higher winning % in common games.
     
  9. sugrlndkid

    sugrlndkid Member

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    Colts go 10-6 and win the division

    Texans remaining schedule:
    vs. Bengals --W
    vs. Titans --W
    @ Jags --W
    @ Colts -- L
    vs Ravens--L
    vs Jags--W

    Texans go 9-7 out of playoffs.

    Denver, Pats, Ravens and Colts win division
    Miami and KC get wildcards...
     
  10. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Everything starts and ends with beating Cincinnati on Sunday. I'll be willing to discuss thing further if we come away with a win against a very good Bengals team. Until then however, I'm not going to expend any energy talking about the playoffs.
     
  11. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost clean your room bucko
    Supporting Member

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    *puts homer hat on*

    Texans remaining schedule:
    vs. Bengals --W
    vs. Titans --W
    @ Jags --W
    @ Colts -- W
    vs Ravens--L
    vs Jags--W

    Colts remaining schedule:
    vs Jacksonville--W
    vs Washington--W
    @ Cleveland--L
    vs Houston--L
    @ Dallas--L
    @ Tennessee--W

    Texans 10-6
    Colts 9-7

    Texans take the division....

    [​IMG]

    BYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!
     
  12. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I think it's more likely that we beat the Ravens than we beat the Colts. Honestly I think we have a better shot at winning out than beating the Colts and losing to the Ravens.
     
  13. sugrlndkid

    sugrlndkid Member

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    The Colts will have to loose two games including one to Houston and the Texans have to basically sweep the board in order to win the division...this is highly improbable...

    This is really why that Steelers loss was such a bad loss...If they managed to win that game, we really had a shot at getting a wildcard spot. Basically, we had to win our division to get in, bc the other teams in the wildcard hunt have better wins than we do.

    We have gone 1-3 vs the NFC East, 1-1 in our division, 1-1 vs the AFC North, and 2-0 against the Bills and Raiders. We have to win our last 4 games in our division and win one more game against the AFC North OR...go 3-1 in our division, and win out the AFC north plus hope for some epic collapses...
     
  14. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost clean your room bucko
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    *takes homer hat off*

    Texans remaining schedule:
    vs. Bengals --L
    vs. Titans --W
    @ Jags --W
    @ Colts -- L
    vs Ravens--L
    vs Jags--W

    Colts remaining schedule:
    vs Jacksonville--W
    vs Washington--W
    @ Cleveland--W
    vs Houston--W
    @ Dallas--L
    @ Tennessee--W

    Texans 8-8
    Colts 11-5

    Colts take the division again...

    [​IMG]

    Le sigh. Byah?
     
  15. conquistador#11

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    ok i'll play too
    expectations..
    W bengals
    W titans
    W jags
    W colts
    W ravens
    W jags

    (texans) Reality
    W bengals- ehh not impressed. if boomer esaison had played we wouldn't have won.
    W titans- lol they're the titans
    W jags- whoa there motherlovers
    W colts- OMG, it's happening!!!! Is this real life??
    L Ravens- well we didn't really expect to go undefeated did we? win against the jags and we're in. woo!!!
    L Jags- WTF just happened?? houston sports teams are cursed. Fire everyone!

    womp womp 9-7
     
  16. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Looking back, losing to the Giants(3-7) really hurt. Especially with how piss poor they have played since beating us.
     
  17. Brando2101

    Brando2101 Contributing Member

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    If you are saying that the only shot the Texans have is to win the division then it is much simpler than that. They have to finish a game above Indy. The tie breaker is already set in stone. Indy lost their 2 flex games and Houston won theirs. If the teams tied, that means that Indy made up those 2 losses with wins in the common games that the Texans lost. That is the drawback about finishing last in your division the previous year. You have the advantage of playing an easier schedule but you get screwed in the tiebreakers if those wins are what get you in a tie.
     
  18. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    It looks like the Texans have three "easy" games:
    vs. Titans --W
    @ Jags --W
    vs Jags--W

    and three "hard" games:
    vs. Bengals --W
    @ Colts -- W
    vs Ravens--L

    The three hard teams all have roughly 6-4 records. If the Texans play as well as they did last Sunday for the last six games, they can run the table and make the playoffs.
     
  19. Nimo

    Nimo Member
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    Not if they lose another division game
     
  20. macalu

    macalu Contributing Member

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    Yea, I feel our only hope is the Texans win out and the Colts lose two more games (against us and Dallas?). I don't see either of those things happening.
     

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