The Sonics would love to have Francis, shoot, pairing him with Ray Allen (who would cover for a lot of Francis's problems) would be deadly. Ridnour might be a decent back-up or servicable starter--but on no level does his talent compare to Francis. Of course by losing Lewis they would lose a lot of their front court--but the Sonics with Francis, Allen, Murray, Radmonic in the 1-4 would be formidable even with their donut at the 5. I had not thought about it, but a Lewis + Barry (redudent on a team with Francis, Allen, Murrary and Ridnour to play the 1 & 2) for Francis would make a lot of sense. I'd sure do it if I were the Rockets, and I just might do it if I were the Sonics. Francis would still be hell on wheels on a outside-inside team where he is the 1st option and can rely on isos and outside shooting to win a fair amount of games. I don't think our front office is stupid, but unlike you and me they cannot be free to always say what they think. As I have said before the day they publically admit it may not work with Yau, JVG & SF is the day after SF is gone. Right now they have to try to keep a positive front and see where this season is headed. (Even if they want to trade Francis this year, it might be better to wait until midsummer when he is no longer a BYC player and his full market value can be redeemed) Further, I don't think they are going to trade Mobley unless he is key to a hell of deal. He is a very effective player for the Rockets for a cheap price. Now if Caron Butler (or some other decent young player with a good upside) and either Jones or Grant are dangled for some combination of Mobes, Cato & Grant--all bets are off. But such a deal IMO would have to stand on its own indepedent from whether SF is going to be a Rocket throughout his contract.
A trade like this would not even make sense. The Sonics would not give up their best player for a player, in Francis, whos position on their roster is full. You are not even thinking. Why would they run with Francis, Allen, Murray, and Radmanovic when they would be a better team with Lewis, Allen, Murray, and Radmanovic? Francis does not make that team better, he just creates a log jam at positions they already have. Francis would be better suited going to the Pacers in a deal for Artest + Tinsley because: 1. He'd be going to the eastern conference 2. The Pacers would have much more firepower to surely become tops in the East 3. The Pacers have room for Francis at the two. 4. They have room to move Artest because they have depth in Harrington 5. The Rockets would be getting a desperatly needed versatile sf with the ability to score and be a defensive stopper. 6. It's a win, win situation! Pacers look like: PG AJ/Anderson/Jones SG Francis/Miller/Brewer SF Harrington/Croshere/Bender PF O'Neal/Bender C Foster/Pollard/Brezec
I disagree. Seattle a) does not have a legit 1. Ridnour might become a good back-up or servicable starter--but I don't think the most optimistic Sonic believes he will be an elite 1. Brent Barry has been a 2 his whole career but has had to play some 1 because Ray Allen is their regular 2. b) Seattle has plenty of outside-oriented swingmen, but no one terrific with the ball. Lewis's game is more of a 3/2 than a 4, Allen is a pure 2, Murray is a 3/2 (better suited to the 3 which is Lewis best position also), and Rad is a 4 who game is a lot like a 3 (off the ball shooter). As solid as Allen, Rashard, Murray and Radm are off the ball, none of them create the problems in isolation as Francis would. Even Rashard, the best Sonic, is ideally suited as the 2nd or 3rd option moving off the ball (as would happen with Yao), not the guy to create match-up problems for you, where as Francis is ideally suited as the 1st option with the ball in hand and breaking down the defense. So IMO Francis, Allen, Murray, Rad and center (pencil in) present much more problems for opponents than Allen, Murary, Lewis & Radmonic and center would. In the latter group who is your 1? Ray Allen has never been one. Lewis? Murray? Radm? Also, who is your defense breaker with the ball? In addititon to being a 2 Allen has always been better off the ball. This isn't the fortee of Lewis, Radm or Murray either. Again I think the Sonics with a Francis/Allen backcourt with shooters like Murrary & Radm would be scary. They still lose plenty because lack of defense and a 1st rate inside offensive presence--but that isn't Lewis game either. I'd like the trade for both teams. If we had to sweeten it, try Francis & Cato for Lewis, Barry and Booth/James (or something like that with matching salaries)--then Seattle improves their interior defense substantially while also getting that dominant offensive player. James/Booth is a downgrade from Cato as a back-up C, but maybe they can play enough OK minutes their it doesn't hurt us. If we did this deal this offseaosn plus an MCE PF signee (Swift?) I'd like where we are heading. I like my trade better for both teams. With the Pacers are you going to give the ball to Oneal or Francis? That would look like a recipe for the Rockets problems as Francis is forced to be a 2nd option after a low post player. Seems to me Artest and Tinsley (if he can get his jumper better) are the kinds of players to surround Oneal with, not Francis. Now Francis + Cato + two #1's for Oneal + Tinsley + Croshere? At one time I thought it could work (when Brad Miller and Harrington could take over the 4 & 5) but with how well the Pacers are playing and no longer having Miller at the C I don't see them ententaining moving J Oneal.
Murray is clearly a shooting guard! He not some 3/2 tweener as you say, and he is definitely not better suited at the three. Having Murray at the SF is like have Mobley play SF. You are creating confusion with the Sonics line-up. Projected Seattle Line-up: Barry/Ridnour Allen/Murray Lewis/Evans Radmanovic/Collison Booth/James So you are telling me that Seattle sending its best player (Lewis) to the Rockets for Francis is a good deal. Lewis is younger, bigger and more versatile. There is not a GM out there that would make this trade, especially considering the depth they have at either guard position. A deal for Barry for Artest straight up was rumored to be going down prior to the start of the season. Now if the Sonics depth was so solid at the either forward position, why would they even consider this deal? Why, because they have the depth in the backcourt. Seattle's Line-up (with Artest): Ridnour/Daniels Allen/Murray Artest/Radmanovic Lewis/Collison Booth/James A line-up like this gives them more versatility with just the subtraction of Barry than any line-up including Francis with the subtraction of Lewis.
You are correct Murrary is a 2 guard. Nonetheless the Sonics have a glut of 2 guards, not a glut of 1s. Murray, Allen, AD and Barry--all more suited for the 1. Barry is being forced to the play the 1 because they have no one else to play that position--further Barry I believe is in the last year of his contract. They hope Ridnour becomes a good back-up or servicable starter--that is about all you can ask from a not particulary athletic, weak, mid first round draft pick, a guy like Ridnour would never get int he way of acquiring a talent like SF. Lewis is rounding into a an outstanding all around player--but he is not in Francis class in terms of creating match-up problems and causing havoc on opponents D (when SF has free reign). For a team like the Sonics without a 1st rate low post threat or Kidd or Nash or Payton or Kobe or T-Mac to create shots for guys like Lewis, Allen, Murrary, Radm, etc--yes in my opinion making the team around SF makes them a better team down the road than around Lewis. I don't think there are that many GMs who would build a team around Lewis before Francis--mainly only those teams with a Yao or other even better 1st option than Francis (who in this case Lewis might be more effective around). They would consider that deal because it would be a steal talent, youth and contract wise for Seattle. I don't think Indy would ever have considered that, now Artest for Lewis as the key principals, that would make more sense. I agree with you the Sonic front court is lacking, but odds are Radm (4/3) and Collier (4/5) will be better players than Ridnour. With Barry being older than the rest of their core and late in his contract the Sonics and not really a 1 anyway, they do need to figure out what they are going to do with their 1 spot. If you could take care of your 1 spot with a even even greater talent like Francis I think you would give up your secuity with a very good, all around 3/4 (Lewis) who just isn't quit the game breaker. Again I think mmanual has a fine idea for both sides with the Lewis/Barry for SF thing, my opinion of course. The Sonics could then build around probably the best backcourt in the league in Francis and Allen (with Murrary and Ridn as backups), have Radm and Collier as potential long term front court pieces, than work on the missing players (classic swingman, center) via draft, MLE, etc.
Gosh, you would think after a 3 game win streak and a 10 assist, 2 tO performance and an excellent night of defense, people would stop trying to ship Francis out of town for a day or two... Guess not...
I'm not a 'Steve only fan' and maybe I see him with rose coloured glasses because he plays for the rockets, but i still think he is one of the best guards in the league. I think he still has a lot of maturing and developing to do as a player and he will only get beter, but he has great skills as it stands and deservers our respect and support as long as he plays under the rockets banner.
No kidding. I am hope that SF can keep up the great pace. The team looked so great, their passing was phenomenal.
Agree. Steve has been changing his style this season, although sometimes with painful adjustment. Overall, it has been great. I honestly believe had Rudy not sick at the end of the last season, his improvement plus addition of Yao Ming should have been enough to get us into playoff already. But even better this season... Looking forward to meet the Laker at the end of the season.
No, because I have been saying this for like a year and half and thus not overreacting either way to 2-3-4-5 game stretches. I simply believe SF game is not best suited for Yao and the rest of the Rockets to be the best they can be, and I think Yao and the rest of Rockets prevent SF from doing the things he does best. SF is an oustanding player--just IMO a bad fit thus we and him are better off trading. How hard is this to follow. If you disagree fine, but don't act like it is just coming from fickle fans.
The above post said, I am glad to see SF doing what he can to adapt, he is making the most of the situation and showing a lot of character. But no, I still don't think long term it is likely to change my point from above, I don't think it is SF's effort or committment that is the problem. I just think his natural abilities as well as weakness ultimately will prevent Yao & SF in a JVG scheme from becoming greater than the the sum or their parts--which is what you need in most championship teams (maybe not the Lakers this year, but how likely is it we will land 4 HOFs even late in two of their careers). I commend SF efforts, I like SF, but I still think we should probably trade him for equivalent but more complimentary value by the start of the next offseason. Maybe SF will prove the doubters like me wrong and he will become the complete player and steady team influence--but I don't see it.
Given up, no, I just don't think Yao, SF and JVG will work out. I could be wrong, I am opening to being wrong, but my hunch is they will never co-exist in a way that maximizing each others inherent strengths and weakness. Steve is trying, I give him that, in the long term I just suspect it will be frustrating for all and at some point you need to go in a differnt direction.
Could that different direction be hiring an offensive minded assistant coach (ala NFL) and letting him direct the offensive schemes? I hope so!
One thing I think you guys have all missed out on(I could be wrong, I haven't read this entire thread) is that SF's defense is much improved this year. I thought he was a pretty bad defender last year but now the combo of SF and mobley in the backcourt on defense is awesome. And now with Cato and Yao at the same time on the court, the guards can cheat more and try to go for steals. SF's offense is having troubles right now. That is because he has to change how he is playing. The entire team for that matter is undergoing this process. It might take a while to clear out 4 years of bad offense under Rudy. I mean, I'm sure everyone is saying, "Baron Davis this and Baron Davis that". But look, he is being asked to be the man on that team. There is no Jamal Mashburn out there demanding the ball every once in a while. When you are free to do whatever you want on offense, then of course your stats are going to be better. The ball is always in his hands. So when he is doubled, he just passes to someone, they make a shot, and BAM, he has an assist and everyone thinks he is the best PG in the league. But the ball is not always in SF's hands. And when it is, he isn't being doubled as much, so he doesn't get cheap assists. Most of our plays say give it to Yao and get out of the way. You are never going to get an assist that way. My point is, SF will get better this year. His defense is already at a high level and once the entire team shakes off the old Rudy offensive mind scheme, then the rockets will start to flow and everyone will go back to saying how we are the most improved team in the league. well, that's my 2 cents.
What are you trying to say?? Are you saying that only good, solid starters come from picks 13 or higher? I would say if a team takes a player in the first round, at all, he (the player) is expected to contribute immediately and effectively. Now, there are teams that make "reaches" as well as there are teams, for instance, the Lakers, that draft for depth while developing for the future. Teams like the Lakers have so much talent that they draft for depth purposes. More than "good back-ups or servicable starters" drafted 14th or lower from 1995: 1995 15. Brent Barry 18. Theo Ratliff 21. Michael Finley 1996 14. Peja Stojakovic 15. Steve Nash 17. Jermaine O'Neal (HS) 20. Zydrunas Ilgauskas 24. Derek Fisher 1997 (I'll give you '97, but there will be some weak drafts) 14. Mo Taylor 15. Kelvin Cato 23. Bobby Jackson 1998 15. Matt Harpring 17. Radislav Nesterovic 21. Ricky Davis 25. Al Harrington (HS) 27. Vladimir Stepania 1999 16. Ron Artest 22. Kenny Thomas 24. Andrei Kirilenko 2000 (Another fairly weak draft) 16. Hidu Turkoglu 17. Desmond Mason 18. Quentin Richardson 21. Mo Peterson 2001 (although still early in their careers) 14. Troy Murphy 19. Zack Randolph 24. Raul Lopez 28. Tony Parker 2002 (same as above) 23. Tayshaun Prince I would say that is a list quality players; some are stars, some are not, but all, for the most part, are better than "back-ups or servicable starters". First and foremost, in today's NBA, you do not trade big for small. Secondly, this is all moot. You say that the Sonics need a PG and would be willing to part with Lewis for this PG. Francis has proven that he is not a PG. I say he is a tweener, but if he is anything, he is a SG. The Sonics are stacked with 2's. Although Francis can score, so can Rashard. No GM in their right mind would make this trade. Why do I want to trade my 6'10" versatile forward for a "tweener"??? Oh No?? What has Francis done in four years to make you think that you can build a team, that will be successful in the west, around him? What, I ask?? Furthing my case in short: Why do I want to trade my best player who is a young, 6'10", versatile forward for your older, "tweener" guard, that has proven, on many levels, that he can't get it done? And to top it off, I lose out on about 20 or so million. Well, obviously they did consider it. Considering the deal was widely known in the media and close to being finalized. And if I recall correctly, it was Seattle that backed out of the deal. What do you mean "odds are"?? You're not making much sense at all. I'm not saying Luke Ridnour will be the next Bob Cousy or John Stockton, but to write him off solely due to the fact that he was the 14th overall pick, is just plain ridiculous. That's the thing, Francis is not a 1!! Even though he is a two, Barry is still better than Francis as a PG. Again, assuming that Francis (despite his inabilities the previous four years) can be a legit and solid PG. Why wouldn't he just cause confusion and turnovers in that backcourt as well? It's nice that you are assuming that he will reach this potential of a quality PG; but if he was the player that we wanted him to be, why would we want to get rid of him in the first place?? The fact is, he is inconsistant, inefficient, clumbsy, and the bottom line is that he is overrated as a player. We can't wait around forever. We have a brighter future and a real player to build a team around. It's "Collison"! Collier was one of the great picks that Rudy landed us. The final bottom line, and most importantly, is that we are in agreement of the departure of Francis. I also agree that Lewis would make this team better, but the reality behind your reasoning is a different story.
Steve just has to go period. You can't blame a new coach or a new style of offense. Either way Steve hasn't played it ,he still does the same old thing. He gets burned by rookies, dribbles the ball for the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock and then will try to drive the ball and end up taken an awkward shot. For those who want to make him a shooting guard?????! He can't make his shots consistantly, why would you do that? He's very skilled but he lets his emotions get the best of him. When he's scored on he usually tries to take it to the basket no matter what and takes a bad shot just to save face. New coaches and new styles of offense is something all players at some point will have to get use to. That's a weak excuse from someone who's suppose to be a "Franchise Player". Steve getting burned at the point is critical, it makes everyone jump at his man leaving the lane open for other big men run to the basket.
egn, If all this team can get for Steve Francis is Artest and Tinsley, then there is no logical reason to deal Steve. If you want to deal Francis, it is important to surround Yao with the right pieces; Artest is a career 32% from behind the arc while Tinsley is sub 30%. Rashard Lewis and Brent Barry are established threats who are very consistent from long range. A perimeter trio of Barry, Mobley, Lewis would really open up the inside for Yao and make it almost impossible to defend this team. If the Sonics feel it is not in their best interest to make this deal then simply hang onto Steve and stay with the current mix. Rushing into a trade that will still cause this team to be crap offensively is not a good idea. Also, earlier in this thread you discussed signing Steve Nash as a FA, you do realize this team is capped out right?
Egn, couple of points: Of course I say "odds are". If drafting and scouting were an exact science the lower pick would always be better than the higher pick but obviously it doesn't work out this way. Some perform better than expected at their draft position, some perform worse. I think your example of good players from the mid-1st round illustrates my point exactly. Maybe 1/5 of all players selected from say 12-18 become good starters are better, that means most of them are less than a good starter. Of the non good starters maybe half are worthy of some significant PT as a servicable starter or back-up, and the rest of them are out of the NBA in 5 years or are insignificant (buried on the bench on all but the worst teams). So when you selected a player in this range, if he is a servicable starter you are pleased with your personelle selection, now if you have a good NBA starter out of it, whoopee, because you well beat most reasonable expectations. Point being, because you may hope Ridnour breaks the expectation and becomes a good, high minute, starter, you would never pass on a talent like Francis who plays the same position because of that hope. As for trading big versus small--it is a general rule but does have exceptions. Marbury, Stackhouse, Kidd, Nash, & Cassell are all examples of smaller players acquired for bigger ones (or packages that included bigger players) one or more times in their careers and most of the acquiring teams have been very happy. Further the big versus little rule has more to do with centers and powerforwards who bring a major inside presence--not SFs and outside players like Lewis. Do you really think a Lewis or another forward or swinman with an outside focused game like Peja or A. Walker or Harpring or Finley or Marion or Mike Miller or SAR or Kirelinko in general are worth more than Iverson or Kidd or Marbury or Davis or Payton or Francis just because the latter are shorter? If so I think you would be mistaken. We will just have to disagree about the assessment of Lewis versus Francis--I think Francis is a much rarely commodity. Francis has been the key guy on a winning team in the WC without much other talent. Lewis has not ever shown he is truely a leading 1st option player, he may always be more of a very good complimentary player (they don't grow on trees but there are more of them) than a guy to give it to over and over to consistently put pressure on the defense (rarer). Also, if Francis were on Seattle he without a doubt would be their 1. Likewise, if the Rockets had a guy like Ray Allen (a very good handling and decision making 2 who could live very well off the ball, could cover much of Francis weaknesses without detracting from what Francis does great) I wouldn't consider moving Francis from the 1 or consider trading him. But guys like Ray Allen that I think would reinforce Francis game (and visa versa), perhaps even with a low post option like Yao, are scarce. The way Francis and Allen could work together is why I like this trade for both teams. Seattle would have the leagues most devastating back-court (Francis-Allen-Murrary) and a fine 1st option (Francis) and we get a more complimentary (to Yao) all around and off the ball player (Lewis) plus a vet to back-up both guard spots or fill in temporary 1 that Seattle may not resign anyway (Barry).
