And this just shows how touchy (and ignorant) some fans/media/critics can be. But we also need to realize that the tables can turn back just as quick.
Every QB you mentioned is in his 3rd season. In other words they got to chill and weren’t counted on until then. Vince was thrown into the fire during his rookie year. His play in his 2nd year has regressed, but I still rarely see: A) Many 2nd year QB’s counted on to produce B) Many 2nd year QB’s producing on a winning team The only other example I can think of this year is Cutler, and he has offensive weapons (two solid receivers and decent RB’s). Derek Anderson has Edwards and a TE with hands. Rivers has Gates and LT and has made many mistakes to blow games. I still say VY is ahead of the curve. And historically speaking the only QB’s I recall wrecking early on (say year 2) were Marino, Elway, Manning and Montana (since I have been watching football).
Couple additions. Big Ben was an outstanding regular season QB his 1st two years. But then his 3rd year was bad. Players changed around him, injuries, offseason and offield stuff--all worked into by far his worst year as a pro. Ups and downs are normal for just about any QB not named Brady or Peyton--I think Pitt is glad they didn't toss him away because he "regressed" in year 3 . Funny thing about Cutler, though he has very good stats, his team isn't winning anymore than before he took over, or anymore than Vince Young's, despite playing in a much easier division. Of course Griese, Plummer and a host of others have had great statistical years in that offense. Overall I am certainly not sold on Cutler as a future top tier QB at this point. I have not seen many games where it was on Cutler to win it--he more than often gets to throw in favorable downs and situations (play action, misdirections, roll outs, etc). Now maybe he does become top tier, he wouldn't be a bad guy to bet on out of the last 3 years crops, but it is hardly a sure thing he will be the best of the young QBs. Now Anderson is one guy I am pretty sold on as a good young QB--I have seen him win a number of his games with his arm where the opponents knew he had to throw and throw again--tough to succussfully throw in the NFL whent he defense is geared for it. But having Edwards, KW2 and a mauling OL have to be considered in his case as well. Could VY or Leinart (has the WRs but not the OL) or Russell or Rogers or Campbell or Alex Smith do just as well around that unit, not out of the question by any stretch. None of those 1st rounders are anywhere near BUST--and most certainly not last year's runaway ROY.
Jay Cutler- 64.1%, 17 TD, 12 INT, 7.9 yards per attempt, 2,842 yards, 218 y/g Vince Young - 62%, 7 TD, 16 INT, 6.4 yards per attempt, 2032 yards, 168 y/g Cutler is WAY ahead. And, no, the Broncos are not that good.
Obviously, its hard to come up with a list of current 2nd year players at the QB position because of the lack of numbers. Also, I threw in the "3rd" year players because it was previously mentioned in a post to come up with 2nd or 3rd year players. Ive said before, that I will give Vince another year before I say anything. However, I'd expect Vince to put up some numbers similar to at least Jason Campbell...and that's setting the bar kinda low for a player picked #3. Anyways, Im gonna list some players that are currently playing...not a historical list, but a list of current QB's and their 2nd years in the big leagues: Tom Brady: Sat at 1st year. 2nd year numbers (first year on the field): 64% completion 18 TD 12 INT 86.5 rating Brett Favre 64% completion 18 TD 13 INT 85 rating Drew Brees 61% completion 17 TD 16 INT 77 rating Carson Palmer 61% completion 18 TD 18 INT 77 rating Peyton Manning 62% completion 26 TD 15 INT 91 rating Eli Manning 53% completion 24 TD 17 INT 76 rating Ben Roethlisberger 63% completion 17 TD 9 INT 99 rating Donovan McNabb 58% completion 21 TD 13 INT 78 rating Kurt Warner 65% completion 41 TD 13 INT 109 rating Jeff Garcia 63% completion 31 TD 10 INT 98 rating Brian Griese 58% completion 14 TD 14 INT 76 rating Marc Bulger 65% completion 14 TD 6 INT 102 rating Kyle Boller 56% completion 13 TD 11 INT 71 rating Daunte Culpepper 63% completion 33 TD 16 INT 98 rating Tarvaris Jackson 58% completion 6 TD 7 INT 73 rating Alex Smith 58% completion 16 TD 16 INT 75 rating Steve McNair 62% completion 6 TD 4 INT 91 rating Obviously, Jay Cutler is on the list. Also, there are a bunch of players that sat out a year but were productive during the 2nd year on the field...Campbell, Anderson, Kitna, Huard. There you have it. 18 players with much more productive 2nd years than Vince Young. Also, players like Campbell, Anderson, Kitna, and Huard who were productive during their 2nd years on the field. I dont see why Young, a #3 pick, wouldnt be held to the same standards as all these other guys. I fail to see how Vince is ahead of the curve, unless you are aiming for him to be an average at best type of QB.
it's easy when Rex Grossman is in the middle of that curve. and people think he should have gone number one....ugh *shudder*.
Ok here are some other numbers: 53 57 65 47 56 54 38 54 48 52 54 54 That is the completion % of Aikman, Elway, Bradshaw and S. Young their first 3 years. And yes, their QB ratings for the most part suck too. It took Terry Bradshaw 6 years to break a 65QB rating. Shame those teams didn't trade their "busts" after year 2, huh. Also interesting how Steve Young went from a 60 type rating pre-year 3 to a 100 rating thereafter. I tend to think moving from the Bucs to the 49ers had something to do with it, but maybe it is just me.
Wow, you have to go waaay back, eh? Well, the game has changed a lot, passing is a much bigger part of it. Rules changes have benefited receivers and the passing game. Looking at RECENT QBs, there are tons doing better in their 2nd years, as rezdawg posted.
Of course, you can always go back and pick out a handful of players that sucked for a while and then did well later in their careers. Look, Im not throwing out those players to diss VY...the question was posed as to how many 2nd year players have performed as well as VY. All I did was respond to the question. I showed that the majority of NFL starting quarterbacks have out performed VY at the same stage in their careers. Is that gonna continue? I have no clue. However, we dont have enough information to say one way or the other. The only thing we know for sure is that VY really isnt ahead of any curve. And really, he isnt performing at a level that justifies him going #3.
Well Vince did have the best rushing offense in the league through the first half of the year and one of the best defenses, which helps in getting favorable field position. His stats were not that much better. People will make excuses either way. When the Titans were winning, people said they kept running the ball and didnt give VY a chance to throw. When they were losing, they said the defense expected VY to throw so he didn't have a chance. End of the day you just have to prove it. It's not like Schaub had anyone to throw to with Andre out yet he still managed respectable stats.
David Carr never had a good offensive line...Brady and Manning had awesome lines. Therefore, David Carr still hasnt had a fair crack at it. Sorry, but just 5 weeks ago, VY supporters were screaming "VY just wins!". No, he doesnt. And now, we have to look at the supporting cast of the players to justify sh!tty on field play. So at what point can we truly say VY is a bust for a #3 pick? Im saying give him one more year. What's your take on the situation?
3 of those 4 hall of famers I listed had their peaks in the 90s--hardly the era of the Wing T. 10 superbowls between them hardly suggest a cherry picked list either. I am not saying VY's current year, which isn't even over yet, is good. But ya'll seem to discount last year--when he was rookie of the year, a very rare achievement for a QB. On balance he has been impressive and certainly Tenn doesn't have buyers remorse. Finally, if you watch the Titans, which have a winning record and are in the playoff hunt--one would be hard pressed to say VY is holding them back. Break down tape and see where he is misreading plays or missing wide open guys. You will not find many. Maybe a few guys could do substantially better with that offensive supporting cast, not many. And no, that could never show up in statistics--just look at the 60 to 100 rating jump Steve Young showed in his career--amazing what playing on a team with good defensive player and good offensive players, not to mention guys like Rice, Taylor, Jones, Rathman and Watters to catch the ball--does to a QB rating. In the right system/players Jake Plummer and Brian Griese can get a 100 rating--got to look at the context.
We aren't taking about their peaks, we are talking about their 2nd years, which were mostly in the late 80s, or 1990 in Aikman's case Why would his rookie year be more relevant to the discussion? If he has regressed, that is not a good sign. You're joking right? How can you possibly know this? And these guys watch him every game: http://www.gotitans.com/goForum/showthread.php?t=33435 They arent exactly universally impressed.
Ive watched them play a lot and I do not believe he is holding them back at all. I think he has made some exceptional throws that have been dropped and some horrible throws as well. I agree that it will help a lot if he has a very good receiver on his side of the ball. However, the success of the Titans isnt because of Young. He is part of the equation, obviously, but I dont see him doing anything that an average QB couldnt do. The one game he missed, the Titans had an offensive outburst. What I fail to understand is the hype surrounding him. I can see why people think he will turn out to be a stud, but I dont see how they can say that he is a stud. One more year, and we will have a better clue on the direction that his career should lead him. Im just saying that, from what I have seen, the hype does not match the production on the field. I also think he has a long road ahead of him. We'll see.
I think its safe to say most Titan fans would love to see Cutler there instead. In fact, most of the nation, outside of Houston would agree.
"VY isn't holding them back." That's the lower bar for VY I'm talking about. He's gone to winning games to, well, at least he's not losing them.
if VY is trying to make himself into a pocket passer b/c he's trying to prove to everyone that he can be, he's his own worst enemy. if Fisher is calling running plays b/c he doesn't trust Vince, then it sux for VY. whatever it is, I hope it keeps up. Titans losing is always a good thing.
And we talking about the same type fan forum as the one year who until yesterday was calling for Tmac's head on a block and others have said trade Yao. Because his rookie year is part of the sample of his play. Noone with any sanity was saying Big Ben was a bust because of massively regressing year 3--which everyone around here is saying year 3 is "the make or break". Ups and downs happen--and it isn't like VY hasn't played some very good games this year. Just not as many as last year--and the reasons could be many, ranging from VY offield distractions, VY pressing, VY being more banged up, the WRs being even suckier/less reliable (his leading two pass catchers are gone from last year--not that they are very good either), other teams adjusting, and/or his O coordinator/coach deciding his pocket development over the long term is more important than current success. VY isn't making as many big plays as last year--but that doesn't mean throw away last year from his assessment of potential and impact. Your logic would imply that if he was totally sucky last year and less sucky this year (improvement) it would be more encouraging than very impressive/very impactfull rookie year but more sucky (regress) this year. Hype isn't because he is a stud, but because he could be a stud. But last year he was a stud---the Titans would have lost a lot of additional games if he didn't make big play after big play out of nothing (improvision). Only haters were not very impressed with what they saw from a rookie QB. This year is more mixed, but it isn't like he is chucking away games they otherwise would win with decent QB decision making (the criticism of Eli, Alex S & Rex). Yes than that changes like a weathervein. Let's see if VY and his team finishes stronger than Cutler's or if Cutler struggles tonight on the road in a game they are expected to win and that all changes. I'm calling it like I see it. Last there they won a lot of games they shouldn't have in a major part to VY making plays that few other players would have made. This year he doesn't seem to be making much difference. But that is a far cry from him losing games for his team. He was rookie of the year last year (slam dunk at that), this year he is nowhere near sophmore of the year but certainly isn't sophmore bust of the year (could go with Bush, ML, Bobby Carpenter, Deangelo Williams, etc, as most dissappoitning relative to draft position). It is what it is.
