[Iko] If the Rockets don't get a top 3 pick, they're definitely trading it.

I'm betting the NBA would want to slide us into the 3-5 pick range.... assuming we have the 2nd or 3rd worst record. Not too rewarding, not too punitive.

 

Based on what exactly? You guys watch too many conspiracy theories.

 

Based on my conspiracy theory! And if we wind up with the 3-5 pick, it proves my ouija board is infallible!

Nah, just where I figured they'd be happiest with us falling -- not overly encouraging of tanking for 3 years, and rewarding us slightly for playing better now, letting go of the worst record.

 

Gross

 

The Rockets could have won more than they have this season quite easily. 85% of the minutes played have been from 19-22 year olds, essentially senior-level college average age team. You lose this much to just trade it away?

You should able to nab at the very least a safer player like Scoot Henderson/Jarace Walker/Brandon Miller that will fill a need on the team that all 3 would fit next to Jalen Green and Jabari Smith and cover some of their weaknesses.

You have ample cap space. Nets assets and the Clippers pick, young players KPJ/KJ Martin/Tate/Christopher/Garuba to add to those assets and picks. You use that cap space and all the stated above to get more experienced depth not what you let an entire year of losing pass to just give it away. It's completely asinine logic.

 

which older than 22 players would have made the team win more? Mathews? Boban?

 

an actual pg?

 

A point guard with experience back up and/or starter. A small forward with experience. A PF or C that can protect the rim. At least two of those could have been had this last offseason if desired. The desire was to lose though, and DD would just trade that away even though there are a ton of assets you could trade and cap space to use.

 

We aren't talking about only "future firsts" that are 3-7 years from showing a return. Rockets have 2 recent top 5 picks and a top 5 pick for this draft, plus multiple picks next year. The price of a current top-5 pick plus 3 more 1st round picks in the next 2 years is unprecedented even when looking at all the previous times the #1 overall pick has been traded.

The closest would be:

• 1993 Webber(1) for Penny(3), 1st in 96, 1st in '98 (Vince Carter 5th), 1st in '00 (Mike Miller 5th)

Also:

• 2014 1st overall(Wiggins) + Bennett (2013 1st) + 2016 1st (#24) for Kevin Love (at the time a 3 -time allstar (2011,2012, 2014), 2x All-nba 2nd team (2012,2014), 1 time face stomper (2012) in his prime)...Available at 2016 #24 Siakam, Dejonte Murray
• 2017 Markelle Fultz (1st) for Jason Tatum (3rd) and 2019 1st (#24). (Also available at 3 DeAaron Fox, Lauri Markennen, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo Available at #24 Jordan Pool, Keldon Johnson, KPJ
• 2018 Luka(3) for Trae(5) + '19 1st (Cam Reddish 10th) (Also available at #5 SGA) (Also available at 2019 #10 Tyler Herro, Cam Johnson)

Even for a sure-fire talent it is possible to trade up. In many cases, the team that trades down actually wins the trade. Paolo Banchero was as NBA ready as Grant Hill and Lebron James. But the Magic would have traded the pick and could have still gotten good value with only 2 picks (Jabari + Eason). I would take Jabari + Eason hands down over Chet right now. And if the Rockets selected wrong or they selected better they would have an even bigger victory. Lottery talent is valuable even if it isn't the first overall, with enough tries even a blind squirrel will find a nut. You can even get a prime star/ borderline Hall of Famer like Kevin Love for 1 former first considered bust by many and a pending first overall plus scraps.

 

I would agree except that Wemby isn't just a surefire talent, he's a generational talent. People are comparing him to LeBron as a prospect. He might be the best player drafted within a 20-year period. Scoot is the kind of guy you're talking about teams sometimes being willing to trade. He would go #1 in most drafts and scouts consider him about as close to a surefire talent as you're going to get without reaching that LeBron/Wemby level. Somebody might be willing to trade Scoot for the right package. If I were a betting man (I'm not) I would be willing to bet a lot of money that no team will trade Wemby.

 

If Lebron got traded for Melo/Wade/Bosh + Diaw/David West+ more picks, no one would be complaining about the trade even 20 years hindsight. Check Ralph Sampson's career for the reason why teams might trade Wemby. He had never seen before size and athleticism. So much that he was a forward and the agile (H)Akeem was the Center despite being about 4 inches shorter. They said he could revolutionize the game and in his first 3 seasons they looked right. He was an All-NBA player hitting game winning shots in the NBA Finals and winning All-Star MVPs within 3 years. Then he got hurt...

So many things can derail a player's career: Injury, Drugs, Women, Lack of Motivation, Legal Issues, Death, family issues, Mental Health. At a certain point it is much safer to take the trade down. Hakeem Olajuwon was the greatest Rockets of All-Time, but even then, if the Rockets traded down and got Jordan and Stockton or maybe Barkley and Thorpe. Every "Generational" player ever in the NBA had other Hall of Famers in the same draft (Except Yao Ming who is another example of what could happen injury-wise). Wilt, Kareem, Shaq, Lebron, Duncan, Hakeem, Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, Bob Lanier, Bill Walton, Magic, Worthy, Sampson, Ewing, David Robinson, and AI all were drafted with other Hall of fame players. Let's not forget the other "generational players" that weren't drafted #1 like Jordan, Kobe, Steph, KD, KG, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, TMac, Grant Hill, Harden, Ray Allen, J. Green, Bari, Sengun, etc.

Going all in on one pick is riskier than keeping multiple lottery picks. While the media makes it seem like it would never happen, it would and should for the right price. It might take 4 unprotected it might take 5. Most teams wouldn't spend that much on one player. But I think the Rockets and Owner are sold on doing whatever it takes to get this level of prospect and we have picks to burn. And if not, Scoot is awesome as well...

 

Let us trust in the Lord.

 

But in all seriousness, yeah it would look pretty damn terrible if they fell out of the top 3 with their pick. Good thing Tilman is selling the team lolololol. Can Cuban go and buy us please? Or some other non-cheapskate owner.

 

If the theoretical Wemby adds half a billion in asset evaluation to franchise is true, and Rockets gets the #1 pick and chooses Victor, ... and if Tilman is not in for the long haul and wants to flip assets, the best time to sell would be right after Victor is drafted.

That half-a-billion evaluation is for Wemby's highest upside. Victor may live up to it... Or as reasons stated above (injury...etc), franchise will steadily decline from that half-a-billion bonus to something actually more reasonable.


The above scenario is unlikely; was just playing in out; if Tilman want to cash out like Jordan. Jordan, while rich, may not have enough (or want) to keep an existing NBA payroll.

 

https://theathletic.com/4445237/2023/04/25/nba-draft-wembanyama-henderson-spurs-wizards-raptors/

4. Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson | 6-7 lead guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite

On paper — and if the Rockets were in Year 1 or 2 of their rebuild with Jalen Green already in tow — taking Thompson makes a ton of sense at No. 4.

He’s arguably the most explosive athlete in his class, and pairing that with Green would give the Rockets quite the powerful backcourt combo. The potential in the open court and on the break for a team that wants to play fast would be dizzying, especially considering Thompson’s penchant for attacking the glass at 6-foot-7. He’s also a smart passer of the ball and understands how to move through his reads and progressions. Defensively, he’s shown enough to be impactful with some tweaks and adjustments. There are concerns about his shot-making ability at the next level, but let’s not act like Houston’s roster is brimming with elite shooting.

In this scenario, if we’re being honest, the Rockets are picking fourth means they’ve known their fate for a while — which means they already started making calls weeks ago shopping it. Maybe there’s a funky three-team package that gets the No.4 pick, future firsts and players to Portland, Damian Lillard and picks to Boston and Jaylen Brown to Houston? — Kelly Iko

 

Mark Cuban is not a cheapskate owner?

 

Brought to you by Clutchfans very own, Kelly Iko.

 

Realistically, a Iko hit rate counter would be interesting to say the least