Here is a good website to bookmark for Ike's models. It updates every half hour so that it catches and is current with all the latest models. Tropical Atlantic: NHC Model Data for Hurricane IKE
Chron.com SciGuy blog 1 p.m. UPDATE: This afternoon's model runs have started to come out and the favored solution is a strike on the upper Texas coast. Be advised that computer models have five-day errors that regularly exceed 400 miles, so it's not time to panic. But within the next five to six days Texas could be facing a serious hurricane. Summarizing the major models: The UKMET, European and GFS models all bring a major hurricane to the upper Texas coast about six days from now. The GFDL model appears to be closer to the Texas-Louisiana border. The HWRF model prefers a solution that brings a relatively weaker storm toward the southwestern Louisiana coast. There are no clear trends, here. The models have continued to focus on an area between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana-Mississippi border.
I'd be really, REALLY careful about wanting a tropical system in Houston. It does not mean a cool down in weather, particularly given the fact that we've had weather in the 80's the past few days and lowered humidity. One of the things I remember distinctly about Alicia is how damn HOT it was before, during and after that storm. Remember that hurricanes move through quickly. That means it will only cool down Houston while it is here and only while it is raining. As soon as it leaves, it will just leave hot and humid conditions behind. The only thing that will cool down Houston is a cool front, which we've already had and will see with increasingly regularity over the next few weeks, hurricanes or not. As for strength, we have little or no ability to predict the strength of a storm. Storm track is becoming more accurate, but strength forecasting is still ALL over the map. Five days out, the NHC still said that a strong cat 4 storm would make landfall with Gustav. That didn't happen. There are plenty of cases of hurricanes strengthening dramatically right offshore before moving inland, so don't be too quick to think that we can't get a major storm. At this point, absolutely no one has a clue how strong it will be. Keep in mind that Gustav weakened only because wind shear increased pretty significantly before it made landfall. Wind shear forecasts indicate it will remain very low in the Gulf throughout the 5-7 days Ike is in the Gulf.
not only are you a troll, you cant read either. Only imbeciles make guarantees on tropical systems more than 5 days out, I am not an imbecile, I only suggested the likely area of landfall based on what the models and guidance were predicting at the time. there is no such thing as a "main model" the NHC uses all models and other data we dont have access to to determine where to put their forecast track. the worst part of the storm doesnt change, it is ALWAYS the north east quadrant of the storm (in relation to its direction of movement) nice attempt to save face by calling me out, but Im afraid your ploy is obvious for all to see. they have names for people like you over at WU....and they arent complimentary. [/troll whipping] Conditions have changed obviously, and they probably arent finished changing at this time. Like I say every time...keep an eye out till its dead cause right now things are just too much in flux to decide if we are indeed under the gun or not. Plan for the worst, pray for the best. oh, and btw....Josephine....sleeps with the fishes. I was right on that one.
Something everyone needs to consider is that it is VERY likely that this storm will ultimately have an eye that is about 25 miles wide with the worst winds wrapping around the north and eastern sides out about 10 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds will extend out about 30-40 miles meaning that an area of less than 100 miles east and west will be effected by hurricane force winds and an area of only about 40 miles to the east of the center will get the worst of it. That is a TINY little swath of land. We saw with Katrina what a huge difference just 30 or 40 miles made to New Orleans. Yes, the levees failed, but it could have been MUCH worse had they taken more than a glancing blow. As a result, it is a bad idea to predict who will take a direct hit from a hurricane when it is a solid 6-7 days out. It is even more ridiculous to try and forecast intensity given the HUGE changes that can happen to a storm. It has weakened before hitting Cuba and no one really predicted that. Predicting intensity is really complicated.
i dont think peope are going to take these storms seriously anymore. at least not in houston. we run from rita, nothing happens in houston. we wait for gustav, nothing happened. now ike.
I'll always take these storms seriously. It's a matter of what you have to lose, aka, it's perspective. If you live by yourself in a 3rd story apartment, chances are that this isn't such a big deal to you. If you own a one-story house with a family, you have a little bit more to lose.
I live by myself on the top floor of a condo and I will NOT be staying in it if it hits. I'll be staying with family in a one story home in Pasadena. I'll take my chances.
Actually, the 6 computer models go as follows: 1. Alabama 2. Mississippi 3. It's headed right for us. 4. Victoria-ish 5. Corpus-ish 6. Texas/Mexico border. Three of the 6 models have the storm taking a more westerly course than would be required for a hit on Houston. Obviously anything could happen, but right now it looks like the Valley has a larger claim on this storm than Houston.
