How come nobody talks about the amount of rainfall for this storm? Is it unknowable or it isn't much of an issue with this storm? I am more concerned with flooding and as Allison showed rainfall is very important.
Billingsley made a good point about this earlier..he said we talk about 6-12 inches with a hurricane like this...but that doesn't count the feeder bands that keep coming in early on and pour 2-4 inches/hour. Honestly, it's hard to tell rainfall. It's been out over water for a long time, and there's not great ways to measure that out there. But the good news is it appears that it will move through the area relatively quickly.
Untrue. According to Billingsley, Ike is being shoved to the East, but a high pressure system in the southeast U.S. is slowing the push. We'll see what happens overnight. BTW, you guys who end up being 100% correct about Ike based on your predictions 52 pages ago will have my greatest respect, for about 30 seconds. Then you will revert back to blowhard status.
I'm glad you're saving me the time, as I'm the same way. These models have been perfected for decades, by people who spend their entire lives studying this stuff. They've made so many advances in the last 10-20 years that it would make your head spin. They do an incredibly great job overall -- Gustav was spot on 5 days in advance, for example, and do a wonderful service for communities. But you have a couple of people admittedly talking out their asses acting like they know something. They're not always going to be right, but certainly they know more than any of us do.
I think you're overstating what Billingsley said. He never said shoved to the East. He said maybe this is a trend..this movement east. But none of that accounts for the HWRF, UKMET and GFS models still being west of Galveston
This storm was actually spot on 5-6 days out. It just shifted south for several days and now its back.
I'll tell you flat out, I have no real idea. I can make a guess...but I have no real true idea what it will do. And neither does anyone else....particularly when you're talking about the difference between about 10 mph on winds and 50 miles or so difference on location. That's ridiculous to pretend you know that.
ok well im reading the eastern US forum and a bunch of guys are looking at some rain band and saying its gonna form a HUGETASTIC eyewall. anyone care to explain? they also said there was a pressure drop.
It hasn't done it yet. That doesn't mean that it will not but seems kind of weird that it will be HUGETASTIC.
They are looking at this. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html The problem is that the inner core refuses to collapse. It should have intensified by now given the current conditions and it still might but theres something odd going on with that inner core. Wish a hurricane expert can explain it. Edit: we might get a slight bump in wind speed next advisory. Recon is showing slightly higher winds.
Based on the most recent info, I don't think heavy rainfall is your biggest concern. Wind is. Clear your patio and porch tomorrow morning if you haven't already. MadMax, "shove" wasn't the best choice of words but it's what came to my mind. He said if it weren't for the high pressure system in the southeast that Ike would probably hit Louisiana.
some guy said it SHOULD be cat 3 but doesnt know what the hell is wrong... another said it is making WESTWARD jogs.
actually the first guy was reporting the newest readings from the hurricane hunters...which appears that winds are just below Cat 3 levels at the surface, now. i was seeing westward jogs earlier...we'll see.
if the guys on those eastern us forums are right, your weather dude may be getting some verification.
how the heck do you interpret that thing??? this storms get me so excited because they are so complex and interesting...
