This storm hasn't strengthened at all, winds have dropped a bit, and the pressure has risen and its drifting east. This storm doesn't appear to be getting any stronger.
where are you getting that winds are dropping? they are still saying 100. billingsley said he thought it would 110...maybe 115...at landfall.
stormpulse is the very same track you're looking at from the national weather service. it's not a different track.
thanks dude, chron should hire me. Scare tactics from the media always make my lol. Yes i get why they do them, but just be real. tons of bloggers the past couple of days had said there was no chance this was going to be a cat4, but none the less cnn and other stations have been hyping this as a death storm. just makes me lulz
Well, due to the still massive size of the storm, the surge could still have a pretty devastating impact on the coastal regions, even if the interior regions of Houston fail to even get hurricane strength winds. Also the models themselves were predicting a cat3 or higher just 24 hours ago, so it wasn't a sure thing that it would weaken. One of the points that several of the meteorologists have made is that the storm is not very well put together. There is a lot of dry air invading the spiral and causing big fluxuations in the wind speeds. That will help prevent constant hurricane force winds for a lot of folks, with different bands having different wind speeds.
Billingsley said he wouldn't be surprised at all if the trend eastward continues overnight and Ike ends up pointing more towards Beaumont/Port Arthur than Galveston. I guess from hour to hour, the trend change is only slight, but we still have 18-20 hours before landfall. The newsguy asked him point blank if, based on the trends, Ike could suddenly turn westward. After weaseling some and adding a few disclaimers, Billingsley basically said no and the trend towards the east will probably continue to an unknown extent.
again...cnn and all these media folks only report what the national weather service reports. the national weather service forecast that..BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T KNOW these are forecasts...they tell you days ago that they're not certain of anything...they tell you over and over again that they have a difficult time telling about intensity.
I was reading the comments on wunderground and someone said the winds had dropped and the pressure has risen. This storm isn't put together very well and doesn't appear to be able to get itself together in order to strengthen.
he said if you start seeing a nw move tomorrow, that would be an indicator it would be heading that way. so we'll watch tomorrow to see if it starts moving nw.
OH, NOES!!!! A HUGE SPIDER IS IN THE GULF!!! LOL @ <iframe width="425" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=http:%2F%2Fmw1.google.com%2Fmw-weather%2Ftropical%2Fkml%2Fall_hurricanes.kmz&ie=UTF8&s=AARTsJoZKzzntS4uOdR-Sh-UkZMcFBZXqg&ll=32.324276,-100.634766&spn=50.854337,74.707031&z=3&output=embed"></iframe><br /><small><a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=http:%2F%2Fmw1.google.com%2Fmw-weather%2Ftropical%2Fkml%2Fall_hurricanes.kmz&ie=UTF8&ll=32.324276,-100.634766&spn=50.854337,74.707031&z=3&source=embed" style="color:#0000FF;text-align:left">View Larger Map</a></small>
I'm no meteorologist....but that certainly makes sense...there's not any kind of steering mechanism in place north of the system to keep it from turning north or northwest at some point. And by the way....is anyone else sick of hearing the phrase, "hunker down"?
I wouldn't bet you because thats what I think too. Yes, madmax I think this storm will weaken to a 1 before it hits land. It isn't put together very well and the closer it gets, the more shallow the water is. It will not continue to strengthen at that point. You don't see that?
I agree that water being pushed has quite a bit to contribute to a Storm Surge, but I don't dismiss the nearby water depth being a contributing factor as easily as you do. Dr Jeff Masters Wunder Blog <I> One possible landfall location for Fay is at Tampa Bay. This is of major concern, because over 3 million people live the region, and it is highly vulnerable to storm surge-- particularly for a storm moving northeast or north-northeast at landfall, as Fay is likely to be moving. This vulnerability results from the long stretch of shallow Continental Shelf waters offshore, which allow large surges to pile up. A surge in deeper water can be dispersed down and out away from the hurricane. However, once that surge reaches a shallow, gently sloping shelf, it can no longer be dispersed away from the hurricane. Consequently, water piles up as it is driven ashore by the wind stresses of the hurricane. Even a Category 1 hurricane can create significant surges--up to 7' in Hillsborough County, 6' in Manatee County, 7' in Pinellas County, and 9' in Pasco County. An extreme Category 5 hurricane can create a storm surge of 28' in Hillsborough County. These storm surge heights are computed from NOAA's Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricane (SLOSH) numerical storm surge prediction model. The data reflects only still water saltwater flooding. Local processes, such as waves, rainfall and flooding from overflowing rivers, are usually included in observations of storm surge height, but are not surge and are not calculated by the SLOSH model... </I> <hr> Storm Surges <I>Storm Surges The damage results from waves riding on a rise of sea level, the storm surge. Many processes influence the height of the surge. 1. Wind speed. The force of the wind on the water is proportional to wind speed squared. <b> 2. Wide shallow continental shelf offshore.The surge is directly proportional to the width of the shallow water, and inversely proportional to the depth. Essentially, hurricane force winds blowing onshore across tens of kilometers of shallow water pile up water along coast. The stronger the wind, the shallower the water, and the greater the extent of shallow water, the higher the pile of water. In some cases it can exceed 2-5 meters. In Galveston, Isaac Cline, the chief meteorologist, measured a rise of sea level greater than 16 feet above mean sea level.</b> 3. Tides. If the surge occurs at high tide, the tide adds to the height of the surge. 4. Shape of the coast and winds at other areas along the coast. The surge can travel along the coast, causing high waters away from the strongest winds. 5. Barometric pressure. Sea level rises one centimeter per millibar drop is air pressure. Strong storms can have 50 millibar drop in pressure, causing a 50 cm rise in water levels on top of levels due to wind and tides. All these factors are included in numerical forecasts of storm surge height produced by meteorological agencies such as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA. <hr> With Ike, size matters for killer storm surge <I> Hurricane Ike's gargantuan size — not its strength — will likely push an extra large storm surge inland in a region already prone to it, experts said Thursday. Ike's giant girth means more water piling up on Texas and Louisiana coastal areas for a longer time, topped with bigger waves. So storm surge — the prime killer in hurricanes — will be far worse than a typical storm of Ike's strength, the National Hurricane Center said. And because coastal waters in Texas and Louisiana are so shallow, storm surge is usually larger there than in other regions, according to storm experts. A 1900 hurricane following a similar track to Ike inundated Galveston Island, killing more than 6,000 people — America's deadliest storm. "It's a good recipe for surge," said Benton McGee, supervisory hydrologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's storm surge center in Ruston, La. "We're already seeing water being piled up in the Gulf. On top of that you're going to have water forced into the bays along the coast." The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot surge — a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland — for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts. Above that, the center predicts "large and dangerous battering waves." Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen. Some computer models have waves topping out at 70 feet, but the waves usually break well before hitting shore, so the maximum usually doesn't get quite that high. "It's going to do tremendous damage over a large area even if its doesn't strengthen anymore," predicted former hurricane center director Max Mayfield. That's directly due to Ike's size. Experts are trying to figure out when they've seen a storm this wide. Ike's tropical storm force winds stretch for 510 miles, and weather radar from Galveston to Key West can see its outer bands. That's about 70 percent larger than an average hurricane. "Because of the very large expanse of hurricane force winds, Ike will create a storm surge well in excess of what would normally be associated with a storm of its intensity," the National Hurricane Center warned late Thursday afternoon. Areas that have a hurricane warning — Morgan City, La., to Baffin Bay, Texas — can expect storm surges up to 20 feet. Areas with a tropical storm warning — Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, Texas, and Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border — can expect five to seven feet of storm surge, Feltgen said. The size and relatively slow speed means more water keeps building, pushing inland for hours after Ike hits the coast, McGee said. <B> Geography doesn't help either. Experts say the Texas coast ranks second, behind Louisiana, as the worst region for storm surge in the United States. That's because the water there is shallower than in most other regions. The energy from a hurricane needs a way to escape. Deeper water can absorb more of it, dissipating the surge, but along the Texas coastline, the water has nowhere to go but up on shore, McGee said. Think of the Gulf of Mexico as a shallow bathtub with a big-time disturbance in it, Mayfield said. </B> Storm surges reached 16 feet during 2005's Hurricane Rita, which hit just east of Galveston, McGee said. Because the worst surge is always just east of the eye of the hurricane, the Galveston-Houston area was spared the worst of the damage. Houston is buffered by Galveston Island — which sits in the way of the surge — and the bay system, but still is likely to get a rush of high water as the bay, rivers and canals fill up, McGee said. And water that rushes into Galveston Bay may not be able to get out after the storm, he said. The U.S. Geological Survey on Thursday sent five teams to the Texas and Louisiana coast installing 80 storm surge devices to measure the flood to come, McGee said. </I> <hr> Hurricane Flooding and Storm Surge <I>Storm Surge Storm surge is a rapid rise in the level of water that moves onto land as the eye of the storm makes landfall. Generally speaking, the stronger the hurricane, the greater the storm surge. <b> As a hurricane approaches the coast, its winds drive water toward the shore. Once the edge of the storm reaches the shallow waters of the continental shelf, water piles up. Winds of hurricane strength force the water onto shore.</B> At first, the water level climbs slowly, but as the eye of the storm approaches, water rises rapidly. Wave after wave hits the coast as tons of moving water hammer away at any structure on the coastline. A cubic yard of water weighs about 1,700 pounds. The surge is greater if a hurricane's track is perpendicular to the coastline, allowing the surge to build higher. The storm surge is also greater if the storm affects a bay or if it makes landfall at high tide. The greatest storm surge occurs to the right of where the eye makes landfall. </I> <hr> Storm Surges <hr>
you said a cat 1 or weaker...it was the weaker part i was asking about. weaker means a TS...the storm is 24 hours from landfall, roughly...i don't see it losing roughly 30 mph of wind force in 24 hours passing over water. that it could go in as a cat 1 is certainly possible.
