Latest NHC just came out. The track has only shifted slightly to the right pushing the storm over the east end of Galveston Island. One more slight shift in that direction and Houston will miss the worst of the winds. Also, the NHC now has it making landfall as a cat 2.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day?large#contents looks like it goes right over galveston bay.
looks like the track has it still heading wnw over land...so it's not skirting us in houston...you're right that we avoid the front, right quadrant though if it lands like this. but with hurricane force winds 80 miles from the high, i'm thinking most of houston will see hurricane force winds even with this track.
wait..this didn't change near as much as I thought looking at it on wunderground... that's going over the western part of the bay...not the east. still not moving NW...still moving WNW
yeah those models look pretty much the same to me... negligible if you ask me. it could just as well take the HWRF route and pwn us. lol im waiting for the 10pm billingsley thing
Truth is, no one will know until it makes landfall. Katrina was going right through NO when it made a last minute eastern turn and went into Mississippi. Rita kept bending slowing overnight to the east and snuck into Louisiana when everyone thought it would be Texas. It's remarkable they can be forecast this close.
so we're roughly 24 hours out now...what's the typical margin of error again for forecast at 24 hours?? 80 miles?
go to maps.google.com and enter the following in the "Search Maps" field: http://mw1.google.com/mw-weather/tropical/kml/all_hurricanes.kmz You get a TRACKER. Actually: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=...2.324276,-100.634766&spn=19.656277,39.375&z=5 will do it.
I think the most significant part of the new update is the forecast of a category 2 at landfall with possible further weakening.
Looks like my 9:15pm flight tomorrow into IAH is canceled. I guess I'll have to enjoy the 65 degree sunny weather here in Toronto for the weekend... Stay safe guys.
3 models say Galveston Island. Two models show it going right through Baytown and Beaumont. One going through Beaumont.
yeah he said that yesterday and many other reports from fox said this from three days ago, its just a good old media over hype.
