[Ike] New Tropical Threat

Billingsly on Channel 2 has been on the nose for a couple of storms this year actually, he's pretty good at his guy feelings. He has also been hinting that the 10 PM track will shift a little.

 

i beg your pardon.. his guy feelings..?

 

Not everywhere. SciGuy, Jeff Masters, the NHC and a few others always present very fair, accurate and balanced data for hurricane forecasting. If you listen to CNN or Fox or local news...well, you get craziness just like with every other story they report.

The Galveston recommendation suggesting certain death if people stay behind is not an underestimate given the real possibility that there will be a 20 foot storm surge. Most of Galveston Island is going to be under water and waves are going to be inundating buildings with water even over the seawall, which is 18 feet high.

There is no hype in that description. It is a real, likely probability.

 

I strongly recommend Billingsley on KPRC. Specifically, be sure and tune in at 10pm.

 

Goodluck to you guys down there, stay safe. From what I remember the waters are quite shallow near Galveston so the Hurricane will lose a lot of it's stength before it hits land, is this correct?

 

especially watching the radar which seems to show a bit more of a westward jog...to me, anyway

 

not ifyou listen to the media, their trying to hype this as a cat 3 or a 4, even though ive said from page 11 it'll be a cat2.

 

Jeff, I tried emailing you through the board but was unable to do so. I have gotten a little insight from The Cat on the affects of this storm on Corpus but I really respect your opinion when it comes to weather. Would you agree with him in that I shouldn't have any worries if I do indeed decide to evacuate to Corpus?

 

For local news, no one is better than Billingsly for hurricane stuff. I gained a great deal of respect for him during Katrina and Rita.

 

A little where? North?

 

I don't know about strength in terms of wind & rain, but I thought that shallow water contributes to a larger (taller) storm surge.

 

You won't have any weather problems, but they are going to have a VERY large storm surge. It would just be smarter to go somewhere inland away from the coastal storm surge.

 

Not necessarily. Storm surge is created by the storm pushing massive amounts of ocean water towards the coast. Ike has been doing that for a couple days already.

 

That is only one factor in the strength of a hurricane. To gain intensity, storms generally need a combination of warm ocean water (sea surface temperatures) - the deeper that warm water goes, the better - light wind shear (upper level winds blowing down into storms) and a lack of dry air pushing into the storm (Saharan dust storms can be a cause of these out in the Atlantic).

You may not see rapid intensification with shallow water, but if the ocean heat content is high and wind shear is light, there is no reason a storm won't continue to intensify right up to landfall.

 

I don't know about storm surges but I know that shallow water is more dangerous for a tsunami as the tsunami doesn't start rising up into a wave until it hits shallow water.

 

so much for that crazy northern shift some people predicted...

 

why don't we wait until the update actually comes out at 10 to see.

 

Hi everyone. I live in NW Houston near willowbrook. What's everyone around the area doing to prepare for the storm?

Tomorrow morning I'm planning on bringing everything small from the backyard inside the garage. Also, should I tape the windows?

Thanks!

 

doesn't look like a big shift north looking at 10 pm update....winds still 100

 

bring everything in...don't bother taping the windows. if in the morning the track holds and you can board them, then do so. taping doesn't help.