That buoy is to the west of the storm. The calmer part. The winds over there are coming straight from the north and are still gusting to 60 knots. I'm not sure how far away from the center it is though.
Cantore is in Galveston and he's hinting at a more northern track for Ike with Beaumont/Port Arthur taking the right front quadrant of the storm.
Anyone evacuating from the medical center/ Astrodome area. Still undecided. I think in the next 2 or 3 hrs or forget it. I don't know anyone who is evacuating, but this is looking worse and worse. BTW as Max said thanks, Jeff and everyone for the info. I haven't found a better site around. Who would have thunk?
Here is the latest update that I received: Hurricane Ike remains a CAT 2 storm with max winds near 100 mph. AF RECON measured a central pressure of 952 mb which is a slight increase over the past few hours and suggests Ike has not strengthened since this morning. The storm continues to exhibit a hybrid structure which has tried at times to re-develop an eye but so far failed to do so. The strongest winds observed by RECON are significantly displaced from the center and until the inner core forms an eye, Ike will likely remain steady state. The central pressure is much lower than is typical with a CAT 2 storm suggesting that if an eye forms, the wind response could quickly increase to CAT 3 or 4 intensity over a very short period of time. Our assessment is that the storm will be moving into a more favorable environment for intensification which will persist until near landfall late Friday night. As such, we expect Ike to make landfall as a CAT 3-4 storm. However, if the eye does not form in the next 12 hours or so…Ike will make landfall as a weaker than expected CAT 2 storm. The current track forecast for Ike remains a in line with model consensus…near Freeport, TX late Friday night.. Satellite shows the storm has tracked a bit more north than expected this afternoon and if this continues, a more direct hit on Galveston and Galveston Bay is possible. Such a shift would mean significantly lower impacts for Katy, Austin, and College Station…but more significant impacts further east. We are not adjusting our track forecast at this time until we can determine whether this north shift is associated with a wobble as the center/eye tries to develop or if it’s part of a more significant trend. Winds are already starting to increase along the upper TX and LA coast and the first rainbands are expected to reach the TX coast sometime around noon tomorrow. Once those move inland, conditions will rapidly deteriorate into the late afternoon and evening. If you have hurricane preparations still to complete or plan on evacuating the local area, the best time to do so is today. As far as impacts go…we have already discussed the severe impacts of a CAT 3-4 landfall in the area…but even if Ike makes landfall as a CAT 2 storm, it maintains an unusually large wind field which will transport stronger winds over a larger area than a typical CAT 2 storm. That also goes for the storm surge which would still be in excess of 15 ft with Ike if it’s only CAT 2 intensity at landfall. It seems likely that regardless of final intensity, hurricane force winds will be widespread along the upper TX coast and inland across the Houston, Sugarland, Katy, Pearland and Kingwood/Woodlands. Power outages, structural damage, and tree/vegetation damage will occur with this storm, especially south and east of downtown Houston as the center makes landfall. The only question is whether this impact is moderate (CAT 2) resulting in a cleanup of several days/week or severe (CAT 3-4) resulting in impacts lasting several weeks. We’ll continue to monitor satellite and radar trends as the storm approaches the coast. The most critical thing over the next 6-h is whether or not the storm can form an eye which would be the red flag that a rapid intensification phase may begin, leading up to landfall tomorrow. NHC advisory update will be out by 4pm CDT.
I'm staying put at my parents house in Pasadena. This storm isn't even as powerful as Alicia, yet, but we survived Alicia with no damage whatsoever to the house.
Just got back from playing golf in Katy. All the coasters passing through there are pretty jittery. Gas station at Fry and 99 is out of gas. On the positive side, the Katy Autobahn is speeding cars west at 80 mph. I-10 is just little slow out to Hwy.6. Beltway 8 looks fine. My thought on going over to Austin friends for a visit is to get up a leave in the morning early.
That sucks...but shows how dependent we are on tehcnology these days. I need a friend that's an Eagle Scout.
If I were in Galveston, I'd be on the road about now... I think most of Houston will be spared, but that storm surge on that island and any coastal places will be brutal.
The more and more I use this tool, the more impressed I am. Answers almost all questions as far as what to expect depending on what area of town you are in: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/sectors/hgx.php
Latest track has bumped it East closer to a Galveston landfall. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/144313W_sm.gif
Early Friday morning is when Rita (2005) went from a WNW track to a NW track. The projected track for Rita was already between Houston and Beaumont on Thursday afternoon.
OMG who was the traffic chick on nbc that was just on right now??? I think I'm in love. Thank you Hurricane Ike for making me watch the news for the first time in a while!
