Damn you IKE...if you Eff up this vacation for me...i will whip smack your children, wife and your dead grandma.
It's looking more and more like a North Cuba landfall. Then a move into the Gulf of Mexico as a weakened Hurricane. Then after that I think it'll be a west coast of florida event. So it's a non factor for the Texas coast.
The models keep shifting south and to the west. We might just have another NOLA hurricane, possibly a TX hurricane.
When does that cool front arrive in Texas? It would buffer us and pull the Hurricane up into it...if it arrives in time. DD
DaDakota here is your answer about the cool front. It's an excerpt from Berger's latest blog on the chron :
I hate cold weather, but I've never been a bigger fan of a cool front than right now. We need a Coors Light Silver Bullet train to bring it down, like fast.
Hopefully it will get here as advertised. Right now the chances are very good. I don't know if anyone here has noticed but it looks like these fronts are already trying to make their way down here right now instead of their usual arrival dates in and around September 20th. Right now as we speak we are experiencing one. Now you won't really see any changes in the overall temps but if you go outside you will notice the humidity isn't as bad right now. That is the reason why.
This is completed unrelated, but I remember a hilarious quote from Ike back in the day in a Time magazine interview. Ol' Ike, what a kidder, lol. http://tinyurl.com/6yxwg7
' I noticed the humidity dropped cause the temp of my live rock vat in the garage dropped from a daytime high of ~85.5 to 82.5. The only explanation is less humidity since the daytime highs are still in the mid-90s. Its not much of a change, but its better than nothing. One note...IF Ike strengthens to Cat4 or 5, he *could* conceivably bust thru the steering currents....ie, the front....but this scenario only has a chance to play out if he gets strong enough and the front isnt strong enough to steer him away. Either way....keep an eye out, this season is a long way from over.
The official forecast track indicates that the storm may be bound for somewhere between Louisiana and Florida's west coast, but there's a ton of uncertainty in the forecast because it's unclear where Ike will take its poleward turn. One model, the European, even suggests the storm will never find a weakness in the high pressure ridge and therefore will not turn, making a final landfall in south Texas. There's really no way to predict for sure where Ike will go because the computer models clearly do not have a handle on whether or where the high pressure to Ike's north will develop a weakness. Magnifying the uncertainty is that we're probably at least a week away from a Gulf landfall, and the models are highly unreliable after five days
Again a shift to the west. Many people are just getting back home in the NOLA area this weekend...get ready to plan another evacuation.
its going to hit as a Cat2 nothing big they said. Gustavo his as the most powerful cat2 and almost did nothing to NO.
Two things: 1.) One, Gustav hit about 60 or so miles to the south and west of New Orleans. Give it a more direct angle, and you'd see a lot of things different. Heck, Katrina was only a mid-Cat 3 at landfall and New Orleans was on the weaker side of the storm, and look at what that did. People don't really know the true impact of Gustav because it hit an area without a lot of people -- and you certainly can't judge it by what happened in a city 60 or more miles away. If New Orleans had a direct hit from a strong Cat 2, there would definitely be some issues. 2.) Forecasting intensity is by far the NHC's weak link. They underrated severely both the intensity and the rate of strengthening before Gustav hit Cuba -- that's why it caught so many people offguard. Then, they overrated severely the intensity (projected a Cat 4 in the Gulf and high Cat 3 at landfall) once it left Cuba. Intensity projections a week out are pretty much pointless -- you can throw a dart against the wall and have as good of a guess.
