Damn that doesn't sound good. I stay in Ft. Bend. Starting to get a little scared now. I'm guessing by Hurricane winds, you mean it can knock out power and blow my roof off?
I'm not understanding the models. I'm not understanding how the track is still further south given this thing is moving northwest....and not west. It was forecast to move west TODAY. It didn't. It continues to move northwest. If it continues to move right on the track it's on and never takes that westward jog, we're in for an interesting weekend in Houston.
They said Category 1 winds and maybe higher if it goes more to the north than its current track. But for now, at least Cat 1 winds. I mean, it depends on your neighborhood and etc on power, but I mean power will be lost all throughout since it's a hurricane. Roof will most likely not blow off unless it's like Cat 4 winds which is not likely in Ft. Bend County UNLESS the track model thats close to Houston is going to be where Ike is headed.
The thing is, it will wobble around so that's what the models show. It's not gonna perfectly go North West, but at times it will go another direction and then back North West. That's why the it's not a straight North West direction line, that never happens with Hurricanes. They always like to wobble and turn and even pull a Rita (last second change in direction) so it's always uncertain where it will make landfall until about the last few hours before the eye makes landfall.
What? He's not talking about wobbles. He's talking about the westward shift that the computer models have been forecasting to occur all day. It still hasn't materialized. Jeff you around? What is your take? I'm worried. The GFDL has historically been the best model and it has been consistent taking it into Galveston the last two runs. I think that this storm is going to catch us with our pants down. I may be wrong. I hope I am.
I was just watching the Weather Channel and they said the mayor of Galveston made a statement that it is too late to call for a mandatory evacuation.
I have a gut feeling that Ike is going to hit Lake Charles. The maps will reflect it by tomorrow night. I'm calling my shot like Babe Ruth, oh and thanks to Jeff and the other weather junkies on here who got me addicted to wunderground.
For what it's worth, the UKMET has actually tracked this storm the best so far. I still think the GFDL is too far off course from the other models. With tonights hurricane hunter run we should have a much better read on the storm in the early morning update.
They really fumbled the ball with this. They were considering Monday for calling the evacuation here on Thursday, but when everything shifted south yesterday they called it off. Bad planning.
Exactly. I don't get it. Masters' blog this morning said it would head west on Wednesday (today). It never happened. The GFDL bouned around earlier...but is showing some consistency today. Of course, so are the ones grouped between here and Corpus. I really have no clue. Usually I take a guess. I don't know.
People backlash when they evacuate and it doesn't make landfall there...so the pendulum swings back and forth from being cautious to being careful. But if this thing really hits as a Cat. 3 between Freeport and Galveston with no mandatory evacuation, that's pretty sorry.
I live in Clear Lake, do I stay?? I think a lot of people are not going to evacuate due to the sour taste from Rita... But, why is it too late to evacuate Galveston??
