They just had a report on KHOU that the Houston and Harris county offices of emergency management, while they are being cautious and still preparting, do NOT expect Houston to be hit and expect the track to hold to Matagorda. I have no clue what information they have to make a statement like that, and it was perhaps a replay of an earlier report.
Good luck Houstonians. Might be a good time to beat the crowds before the shelves empty and you wait in line for an hour at the grocery/Home Depot. It sounds like by the time you get any confirmation it will already be crunch time and everyone will swarm the stores.
Looking back at the historical track for Rita is interesting. Ike is in basically the EXACT same location as Rita was three days prior to landfall. It's track for the next day is very similar to the forecast track of Ike. After that, Rita made a much more steady northwesterly turn and made landfall at the Louisiana/Texas border. Check these track models overlaid. Rita is faded - note it is less than 50 miles north of the projected landfall for Ike 3 days out.
If you live North of the South Loop and West of the Eastex Freeway, I really think you should stay put and leave the evacuation routes clear for the people who REALLY DO need to evacuate. Just put all your lawn furniture inside and ride it out.
No way Montgomery County should Evac. Pretty much everyone North of I-10 should stay put. Trees might go down, low streets might flood, but homes should be fine. Run from water (storm surge), Hide from wind (everybody else).
The general rule is: Anyone in storm surge zones Anyone in low lying areas prone to flooding After that, north/west of 59 is generally considered safe even in a cat 4 storm. North of I10 for sure. Anyone north or west of town (Spring, Katy, Kingwood, Woodlands, etc) will be fine.
Upper level steering patterns in 2005 are nearly identical to 2008. The high pressure system sitting over the east coast is a common pattern during the summer and it is sitting in almost the same place it was in 2005 during Rita and Katrina. Ike is just looking for a weakness in the high so it can turn north. As Xenon noted on here earlier, large storms are pulled towards the pole, but they can't turn directly into high pressure. They need a weakness or a trough of low pressure to move into. Right now, the real question is where will Ike find that weakness and when?
Yeah, the North, NW parts of town, Katy, Spring, Woodlands, Klein, etc might have trees go down and power out for a few days, but other than that, fine. Also, if you look at the historical storm track it appears the West swing is starting to begin, it was almost due NW a couple hours ago, but its back to a West by NW track now, so its making that turn. I wonder if the GFDL was calculating in the almost due NW track earlier today and things will start to shift back since the storm is finally turning.
Are you hearing any info that conditions are similar to the Rita hurricane and this may end up a TX/LA line storm?
By the way, here is the Rita Graphics Archive that shows all the forecast tracks. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml
so what is the concensus on this being like rita? i don't know if the people of houston would even think we are vulnerable to hurricanes if THAT happens again.
I'm thinking it made that west swing a lot later than anticipated. And I'm thinking that since it did, it naturally means that...if it's moving WNW, now...that when it makes landfall it will be further north than previously thought.
I read in Masters' blog a couple days ago that conditions are very similar in terms of upper level steering patters. Obviously, the timing of the weakness in the high will be the key and because we're only talking a couple hundred miles, it's nearly impossible to predict. 24 hours before landfall, the NHC still had High Island as the landfall mark. It wobbled east. Interesting looking at satellite images how dry air is being pulled into the core of Ike. It's probably why some of the models think he will strengthen, but not to the cat 5 or even strong cat 4 status of Rita or Katrina. Plus, the water isn't quite as warm, but it will still make major hurricane status by tomorrow morning at the latest.
I currently farm SeaMonkees in Matagorda Bay. If the hurricane directly strikes Matagorda Bay, will my SeaMonkees be affected? Would they be safer in Detroit?
