this was what i was thinking. we will see how accurate they are with gustav. i am sure the models have been updated since 2005. so the error back is not that significant.
The latest GFDL model has it straight into Freeport/Galveston, but the HWRF and GFS updates still show a CC/Matagorda hit. Simply put, they have no idea right now as it's barely moving.
A couple models have flopped back to the north towards Galveston (GFDL at Freeport and the CMC at just south of Freeport) while the UKMET (the northern most outlier yesterday pointing just south of Freeport) is now just south of Port Lavaca and the GFS is centered on Corpus. Any moderate deviation and we take a direct hit, which will be seriously bad. I was reading Masters' blog and he compared this storm to Celia in 1970 which hit Corpus and damaged or destroyed 80% of the buildings in Corpus and Port Aransas. Granted, this was a direct hit right to a city on the water, but still.
Prediction from an analyst who works with oil companies, said "Latest model has Ike turning north into Galveston as a Cat 4. Just wanted to keep you guys informed. There is time for it still change tracks, but it never hurts it be a little more prepared than we originally expected. This may change everything….Expect a MAJOR change in how this is going to be handled in the media and emergency mgmt going forward." Take it for what its worth....i always said i hated the weatherman for blowing stuff out of proportion. Either way sounds like scary stuff and i hope people take this storm seriously. thanks for the updates jeff/others who give info seriously.
ugh..these probability figures are getting higher for Houston/Galveston/Freeport than I'd like. And Masters says they should be 5-10% higher. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1077&tstamp=200809 I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At 11 am EDT, NHC called for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities: Brownsville: 9% Corpus Christi: 17% Port O'Connor: 24% Freeport: 23% Galveston: 20% Houston: 13% As you can see, Port O'Connor is considered the most likely city in Texas to receive hurricane force winds. I believe the percentages for the cities above except Brownsville are too low, and should be bumped up by 5-10%.
Cat 4 is only being predicted by the GFDL and it is also the only one making landfall at Freeport. But, his advice is good advice and he is right about evacuations and emergency management.
Rita II? IICR it began with the afternoon model run 3 years ago that the forecast started shifting from Corpus towards Freeport.
Wow, Freeport would be a worst case scenario for Houston. The dirty side would go right up I-45. Not good.
You can load the GDFL model on Google Earth and see how far your house is from it. http://www.guiweather.com/ Save the kmz file and open GE. Set a placement for your house and click on the blue ruler at top to calculate the miles from GDFL path, just click on two spots. My house is freaking 0.85 miles from the latest GDFL!
almost exactly...same day, even...it was a wednesday afternoon. people started getting out of town that evening.
I wonder when the forecast from the NHC will change...??? anyone know??? With the GFDL moving so far north, I'd have to think they'd start shifting the forecast that way, too.
The GFDL is a model from the national weather service. I think they all vary as to reliability. The UKMET was seen to be the more reliable so far during this hurricane track...I don't know if they feel that's the case anymore. The NHC takes all models into account in making their forecast.
I don't think there's really a reason to get concerned about these models until tomorrow night. They seem to change so much every run, why worry about this particular run?
