given what i'm looking at on stormpulse...if that's the case, and it's going to keep moving north to northwest until later this afternoon...then I think it does push it out of its forecast cone, just as marks said in his last post.
i have a bad feeling about this storm... family is thinking about heading to austin but even austin may get hit with a pretty significant tropical storm.
This storm is very close to Hurricane Carla's track in 1961 Carla hit Matagorda Bay about 60 miles east of Corpus. Carla let loose about 20 tornadoes in Galveston Winds in Galveston were 80 mph Houston had 60 mph winds I live 20 miles from the coast so.... I will be staying in Houston Thurs- Sat
Too many similarities to hurricane Rita for my liking. Days of the week are about the same too. It was a Wednesday morning during Rita when the projected path was north of Rockport and here we are again. The models kept shifting north throughout that day and by that night it was heading right for Freeport and we had a mass panic.
10 AM run on the National Hurricane website has basically the same path as earlier this morning, even taking into account the slight North jog its taken. If anything, the cone is wider on both sides on the latest run, but it still has it going in around Matagorda so far. I think the High is still considered in play.
Well, I'm suppose to go to Houston this weekend and now am having second thoughts...My mom says she's wanting to come up to Dallas with the kids, which is fine, and I'm afraid friday may be too late to beat the traffic...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad Yikes, this has Ike hitting as a Category 4.
The earlier the better man......I was lucky that I didnt get caught in all that traffic the last time. It would have been bad especially with my kiddos.
New update from Jeff Masters: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1077&tstamp=200809 Ike intensifies; Texas at high risk Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:18 AM EDT on September 10, 2008 Hurricane Ike is steadily intensifying over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters as it heads west-northwest towards the Texas coast. At 10 am EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found that the pressure has continued to fall, and now stands at 957 mb--a 10 mb drop in the past 12 hours. Ike's eyewall was missing a chunk earlier this morning, but the storm his since put together a complete eyewall. Visible satellite loops show that Ike has become better organized in recent hours, with a more symmetrical appearance, and respectable upper-level outflow channels open to the north and the south. Outflow and cloud cover is restricted on the storm's west side, where dry air and wind shear of 10-15 knots is affecting the storm. Water vapor loops show that some of this dry air may be getting wrapped into the circulation, and this could slow Ike's intensification today, until it can build a stronger eyewall. Ike continues to bring very heavy rains to western Cuba, southwest Florida, and the Florida Keys, where more than five inches has fallen (Figure 1). All indications are that Ike will intensify into a major hurricane that will bring widespread destruction to a large stretch of the Texas coast. I expect Ike will generate a 10-15 foot storm surge along a 100-mile stretch of Texas coast from the eye landfall location, northwards. I urge Texas residents to take this storm very seriously and heed any evacuation orders given. Most of you living along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane, and Ike is capable of causing high loss of life in storm surge-prone areas. Track forecast for Ike Ike is moving west-northwest under the influence of a blocking ridge of high pressure to its north. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike more to the northwest. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and remain closed most of Saturday. The latest 00Z/06Z (8pm/2am EDT)) computer models have begun to zero in on Corpus Christi to Freeport as the most likely landfall location. However, with a trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike close to landfall time, a slight variation in timing of this trough could put Ike ashore farther north, near Galveston. There is also a chance the ridge pushing Ike west Thursday could be stronger than expected, forcing Ike more to the west towards a Brownsville landfall. However, I believe that this is lower probability, and that Galveston is more likely to get hit than Brownsville. The cone of uncertainty still covers the entire Texas coast. If Ike hits Corpus Christi, it will miss most of the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 2), but a hit closer to Galveston would seriously disrupt the oil and gas industry
This is interesting- based upon the 3 day cone forcast here is the last 3 predictions and result for 3 days out- Hurricane Rita Date of landfall: Sept. 24, 4 a.m. Actual landfall: Johnson's Bayou, La. Forecast location: Palacios Forecast error: 200 miles Forecast winds at landfall: 140 mph Actual winds at landfall: 115 mph Hurricane Katrina Date of landfall: Aug. 29, 10 a.m. Actual landfall: Louisiana-Mississippi border Forecast landfall: Fort Walton Beach, Fl. Forecast error: 190 miles Forecast winds at landfall: 115 mph Actual winds at landfall: 125 mph Hurricane Gustav Date of landfall: Sept. 1, 8 a.m. Actual landfall: Cocodrie, La. Forecast landfall: Cocodrie, La. Forecast error: 0 miles Forecast winds at landfall: 120 mph Actual winds at landfall: 110 mph The 3 day cone isn't too reliable... only Gustav hit on target
I don't know. You may be misinterpreting the 3 day cone. It is a cone. The first two may not have hit dead on target, but were they within the cone?
i think he meant the 3 day forecast. look...if you're telling me 3 days out that it hits in spot x...and it ultimately hits 200 miles away from that...then your projection of landfall is pretty worthless to me. the cone has value, though. no one can say they weren't warned if in the cone. that's how uncertain hurricane prediction is. and that's why i get frustrated when i hear people say they know with certainty where it's going 3 days out.
The obviously have the science down better now than they did a few years ago. Gustov was right on the money. And missing where a hurricane will hit 3 days out by only 150 miles really isn't that big of a "miss" in my opinion.
A little comedy: The SciGuy at chron.com has had some ridiculous questions posted on his blog and chat...I think this person is joking. Eric - I live in Rosharon. There is a tall pine tree next door. If it falls to the NW (between 290 degrees and 305 degrees) it will hit my house. If the hurricane comes in at Port Lavaca, will the tree hit my house? Should I buy 5/8" or 3/4" plywood to board up my home? Should I get the plywood at Home Depot or Lowe's? What if the storm comes in closer to Bay City? Should I change from Lowe's to Home Depot? Will the tree hit my house?
We will see how much better the technology is. I hope you're right. It's certainly tons better than it was when I was growing up here as a kid....tons better! I realize 150 miles is relatively close...and a near miss. But given the difference of what that means to the real lives of the residents who live on the coast...the people these forecasts are actually communicate for...the difference is gigantic. See Rita, Hurricane.
