Not in Houston, but if a person wants to leave...they have business leaving whether it is from irrational panic or not.
no they dont. if you have no business leaving, you have no business leaving...if you live in Katy or tomball, please stay off road. you're slowing the rest of us down.
I wouldn't go toward Austin or San Antonio for this one. I bet they get a lot of flooding and high winds.
holy crap, the whole projected path changed to rapidly, whoa, noone knows where this thing will end up
Those idiots can't even tell us exactly where this thing is going to hit 4 days ahead of time. Man, what a bunch of fools.
how far out does the severe rain extend? how much should we expect to get in west houston if it lands around port lavaca or even corpus?
wow....its already pretty big. i've noticed that the models usually go west in the morning and shift east by nighttime and repeat this cycle... i found this to be the case with gustav as well
And it's going to get bigger once it reaches the warm water eddys. My two prayers tonight...slow down cold front in Montana, and pray the high pressure strengthens over the gulf to push it on a west track. This one's gonna be ugly and with the forecasters still not knowing what will happen, there's gonna be little time for evacuations in storm surge areas.
that's the really bad part. if they come out tomorrow morning and talk evacuation, people will piss and moan if it doesn't hit...but at this point it seems the variables are such that we likely won't know with any certainty until later.
Cosmic bunny-holes for everyone! I have a terrible feeling about this Hurricane and the effects it could have all around the Houston area. Something tells me this thing is heading right for us. I am really not looking forward to losing power for a week or two. Ya'll can call me crazy all you want.
The GFDL has shifted back south to just north of Corpus on the 18z runs. So has the GFS predicting landfall at Corpus Christi. They are both showing a faster movement through the Gulf - arrival Friday night - with, probably, not enough time to turn the storm northward from the trough of low pressure's influence until after landfall. It will be interesting to see the 00z runs tonight because they will include hurricane hunter data. I wonder if the models overestimated the trough of low pressure in their first run calculating it. It wouldn't be the first time they had done that this year with both Gustav and Ike. The GFS has the best long-range forecasting in the upper atmosphere and contributes its data to the GFDL, so whatever the GFS extrapolates in the 12z run, for example, we won't see in the GFDL's forecast until the 18z run. The GFS has remained south of the dynamic models in the long term and it would seem its influence is being seen in the latest GFDL. The UKMET doesn't run a full forecast at 6z and 18z, so we'll have to wait for 00z to see the full forecast period for it, but the HWRF should be up fairly soon and my guess is that it will move a little south as well. You can see that reflected in the 7pm update from the NHC as well and the closer we get inside 3 days out (late tonight or early tomorrow), the more accurate the forecasts will be.
I'm sure there are folks in Brownsville, Corpus, northern Mexico and other places saying the same thing. Same was true of every place along the coast with Gustav, Rita, Katrina...you name it. Fact is, no one knows and your intuition is more likely just fear manifested, which is totally understandable. Unfortunately, no one really understands what a big storm can do until they have been through it, so it is either dismissed or feared. Media doesn't help by over dramatizing the situation and forecasters tell people to expect the worst out of precaution. It makes for a pretty ugly situation.
Man why dont you relax. Read jeff's entry above. Everything gonna work out just fine. Come and have a smoke with me.
