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[Ike] New Tropical Threat

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Faos, Sep 2, 2008.

  1. Austin70

    Austin70 Member

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    Back in 2004 Hurricane Claudette came through Port O'Connor, we got the rain and the wind, it was a Cat. 1. We were with out power a good 3 to four days, had to chop up and haul away a 15 year old oak tree plus many other limbs. This was my first hurricane and I don't want another.
     
  2. Angkor Wat

    Angkor Wat Member

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    So is it safe to say we are safe from this hurricane?
     
  3. tulexan

    tulexan Member

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    I think Baton Rouge would disagree with that statement
     
  4. Lady_Di

    Lady_Di Member

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    Well, to play the devil's advocate, those hurricanes except Alicia hit east of us just like Rita so that's why they weren't that memorable...however, if one of them hit a little bit west of us or hit us directly then we would remember them more.

    I don't remember them because I was barely a kid and I don't remember where I was last year. ;)
     
  5. LouisianaRocket

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    indeed, Baton Rouge is still trying to recover till this very day.
     
  6. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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    No, not yet. The last NHC advisory actually nudged the forecast track north because the UKMET model tracked more towards southeast Texas during the last model run. The UKMET had been an outlier for days predicting a westerly track (now the other models have picked up on that) and now it's the outlier bringing it back north. There hasn't been much consistency with consecutive models runs.
     
  7. jgreen91

    jgreen91 Member

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    Droxford. A cat 1 or 2 storm can and will spawn tornadoes and will rip the roof off your house and you'll be without power for days. I think that is a little bit more than some wind a rain. I like your optimism, and I will stay through a 1 or 2 to protect my home, but let's not fool ourselves. If you are in the direct path, it still will not be pretty.
     
  8. rcoleman15

    rcoleman15 Member

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    New 12z models for Sep 9th are out.

    12z GFDL

    12z GFS

    12z HWRF

    12z UKMET

    [​IMG]

    GFDL, GFS, HWRF all trended back to the north while the UKMET moved further south on this run. They all basically zoned in on the area in between Corpus and Port Lavaca.
     
    #348 rcoleman15, Sep 9, 2008
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2008
  9. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Member

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    Any word on how this affect kickoff for the Horns game on Saturday? DeLoss mentioned that the game could be postponed if the campus has to be used as an evacuation center.
     
  10. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Member

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    All models moving north. Not good.
     
  11. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    where ya seeing that?
     
  12. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Member

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    Reading WU blog and looking at the latest model runs that have been posted there.
     
  13. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    i'm there now...just see the 11 AM runs...are you seeing something different?
     
  14. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Member

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    Are you reading the blog? Even looking at the model runs posted above, the GFDL has moved from south Texas to Corpus. One of the latest HWRF runs has it 50-60 miles SW of Houston.
     
  15. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    Ahh...I see that's been updated. Got it! thanks! Waiting on the visual.
     
  16. Davidoff

    Davidoff Member

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    What blog are ya'll talking about?
     
  17. rcoleman15

    rcoleman15 Member

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  18. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    HWRF wouldn't be great for Houston. Dirty side and bending back towards us (cue Swoly).

    My guess is the GFS...which looks to be a happy medium....but forecasts seem to be changing significantly.
     
  19. Davidoff

    Davidoff Member

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  20. Castor27

    Castor27 Moderator
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    WU just put up the 2pm est models. Once again the other models started to look a little more like the UKMET. A little further up the Texas coast and a kick to the North, exactly what I was afraid of. Hopefully it won't start backing to the East before the North turn.
     

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