Back in 2004 Hurricane Claudette came through Port O'Connor, we got the rain and the wind, it was a Cat. 1. We were with out power a good 3 to four days, had to chop up and haul away a 15 year old oak tree plus many other limbs. This was my first hurricane and I don't want another.
Well, to play the devil's advocate, those hurricanes except Alicia hit east of us just like Rita so that's why they weren't that memorable...however, if one of them hit a little bit west of us or hit us directly then we would remember them more. I don't remember them because I was barely a kid and I don't remember where I was last year.
No, not yet. The last NHC advisory actually nudged the forecast track north because the UKMET model tracked more towards southeast Texas during the last model run. The UKMET had been an outlier for days predicting a westerly track (now the other models have picked up on that) and now it's the outlier bringing it back north. There hasn't been much consistency with consecutive models runs.
Droxford. A cat 1 or 2 storm can and will spawn tornadoes and will rip the roof off your house and you'll be without power for days. I think that is a little bit more than some wind a rain. I like your optimism, and I will stay through a 1 or 2 to protect my home, but let's not fool ourselves. If you are in the direct path, it still will not be pretty.
New 12z models for Sep 9th are out. 12z GFDL 12z GFS 12z HWRF 12z UKMET GFDL, GFS, HWRF all trended back to the north while the UKMET moved further south on this run. They all basically zoned in on the area in between Corpus and Port Lavaca.
Any word on how this affect kickoff for the Horns game on Saturday? DeLoss mentioned that the game could be postponed if the campus has to be used as an evacuation center.
Are you reading the blog? Even looking at the model runs posted above, the GFDL has moved from south Texas to Corpus. One of the latest HWRF runs has it 50-60 miles SW of Houston.
HWRF wouldn't be great for Houston. Dirty side and bending back towards us (cue Swoly). My guess is the GFS...which looks to be a happy medium....but forecasts seem to be changing significantly.
WU just put up the 2pm est models. Once again the other models started to look a little more like the UKMET. A little further up the Texas coast and a kick to the North, exactly what I was afraid of. Hopefully it won't start backing to the East before the North turn.