Shocker. He's a student who doesn't own property in the path of a hurricane. I'm really surprised at that. Would not be the LEAST surprised to know TardHombreDeHierro is in the same boat. Probably living at home with mom and dad, no home repairs to worry about, no job, etc. The worst part is knowing Phelps is a fellow Longhorn. Well, not the worst, but close.
Keep praying it keeps it's speed. If it does it could make a TX/MX hit, if it doesn't, it will most likely take a northward turn. Steve Lyons said so, and that dude is $$$.
I haven't said I hope it comes to Houston, I have just said I think it's likely that it's going to come here. If I have, well then damn, I'm sorry for hurting yall's feelings. I didn't know one persons words could be so valued here.
honestly, i dont see why some people are getting so pissy about what these guys are saying. nothing they've posted has been all that offensive.
A lot of us own property not even 50 miles inland. A lot of us don't want to be without power for weeks. A lot of us don't want to go through the hassle with insurance companies to get things fixed if a Cat 3 hits. Being in Austin and wishing for a hurricane to hit Houston is trollish.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/big_changes_ike.html#more Ike may weaken even more; models head south There are a couple of headlines tonight when it comes to Hurricane Ike. Foremost, as Ike has traced the southern edge of Cuba today, the island has substantially weakened the storm. Secondarily, the computer models have made a dramatic shift westward, down the Texas coast away from Houston, today. IKE WEAKENS As the water vapor image shows below, Ike has lost a lot of its convection today. As a result the storm's maximum winds have fallen to 80 mph tonight. And because Ike will likely hug the Cuban coast or move back over land during the next 24 hours, further weakening is possible. All of this significantly lowers the possibility that Ike will strengthen back into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. In fact the chance of Ike strengthening back into a Category 3 hurricane is now probably less than 50-50, and that might be generous. Some models, such as tonight's HWRF, still bring an extremely intense hurricane to the Gulf coast. MODELS TURN SOUTH During the last three runs of the global models they have generally trended southward, bringing the storm to the south or central Texas coast, rather than the upper Texas or central Louisiana coast. This is because a weakness forecast to develop in the high-pressure ridge that's steering Ike westward, which would have allowed a northwestern turn, now may only appear briefly. If no such weakness develops Ike will continue a largely due west, or just north of west, movement. There's no guarantee these trends will continue, but the fact that they have been consistent increases our confidence in them. I would also caution that we're dealing with 4- and 5-day model runs, which regularly have 200- and 300-mile errors. With that being said I expect the official forecast to shift significantly southward tonight, possibly centering upon Corpus Christi. If you construe this to mean that the threat to southeast Texas appears to be less tonight than it was 24 hours ago, you would be correct. But for now, given the considerably uncertainty with five-day forecasts, the Houston area must continue to closely watch the storm. I'll have a full update on Ike's threat to Texas in the morning. Be sure to join me tomorrow for a chat at 2 p.m.
Lets keep that track moving way south. Recent history with storms approaching Texas has had them creep north in the days before landfall so I fear a projected path that's around the Rockport, TX area 2-3 days before landfall.
Looks like Ike is probably not even going to give rain here anymore according to the latest models and etc.
