I'm so sick of these damn hurricanes. God should just go ahead and bring the rapture!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just heard this on KTRH 740: "We are keeping an eye on hurricane Ike. It looks like it may be heading straight for your house." I'm all for keeping an eye on it, but talk about sensationalism.
You ain't lying. Look at that angle. If that hits as a strong cat 3 or cat 4 like that the storm surge would be terrible. Yikes. Still way early, though.
I used to listen to KTRH in the mornings because that is how I timed when it was time to leave for work. Their anchors have become such a joke that I stopped. Thanks, Clear Channel!
Track forecast for Ike Ike's center moved out over the warm western Caribbean waters late this morning, and is now tracking west to west-northwest, closely hugging the south coast of Cuba. Ike is expected to track west-northwest on Tuesday into the Gulf of Mexico, passing near or over Havana, Cuba. The expected track could bring tropical storm force winds of 40-50 mph to Key West and the Lower Keys on Tuesday afternoon. The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) computer models continue to show that Ike will track northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there has been a major shift in the model tracks for Thursday and Friday. All of the models are calling for a more westward motion, bringing Ike to a landfall in Texas sometime Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The new set of model runs is portraying stronger high pressure over the central Gulf on Wednesday and Thursday will push Ike faster than expected to the west. The trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike to the north does not arrive until Friday night, after the storm has already made landfall in Texas. The timing and strength of this trough, plus the speed with which Ike moves across the Gulf this week are still uncertain. We cannot be confident yet of a Texas landfall until we see several model runs in row that lock in on this solution. All five major models--the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF--foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. The GFDL model foresees landfall as a Category 2, and the HWRF as a Category 3. Landfall could be as early as Friday afternoon, or as late as Saturday morning. Intensity forecast for Ike Although Ike is currently over some very warm waters, the eye is very close to the coast. This proximity to land will inhibit intensification. Furthermore, the Hurricane Hunters reported at 2 pm EDT that Ike had concentric eyewalls--an inner eyewall of 17 miles in diameter, and an outer eyewall of 70 miles in diameter. Hurricanes in this configuration cannot intensify significantly until the inner eyewall collapses, and the outer eyewall takes over. This process typically takes a day, and Ike will be back over Cuba before this "Eyewall Replacement Cycle" (ERC) has had time to complete. I expect that Ike will intensify by at most 10 mph while it is over water south of Cuba. This is good news for Havana, which should only get a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Tuesday morning. Ike should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday relatively intact. It will take the storm a day or two to reorganize once over the Gulf, where wind shear is expected to be light (<10 knots) and water temperatures will be warm, near 30°C. Ike should be able to intensify into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Thursday, as forecast by the GFDL and HWRF models. Once Ike approaches the coast on Friday, the total heat content of the ocean declines, and the shear is forecast to rise to a moderate 15-20 knots. The GFDL and HWRF models respond by weakening Ike to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall in Texas. This is a reasonable forecast, but our skill in forecasting intensity is low, and Ike could just as easily be a Category 1 or Category 4 hurricane at landfall.
New stuff in. Track shifted slightly southward. 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082050 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM CUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR. IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12. TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. ONCE IN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4N 79.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8N 81.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6N 83.2W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4N 86.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 89.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 92.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 96.0W 95 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
Lol @ Kam. Will my glass table be blown away Saturday? I'm supposed to have it delivered to my house Sat. We're having a housewarming party next weekend. I would MUCH rather for it to be east of us so we won't be on the dirty side. Still early, no panic time for miss lady (just yet).
<hr> Some of your previous posts in this thread: You have a few decent moments in the thread, but they are more than offset by those wanting a hurricane for you to <I>experience</I>. Since this thread has roughly 250 posts (at this moment) and you are one of the more frequent posters in it, a general expectation would be that you are contributing at a high level. From my POV, you aren't contributing much at all. Whether Ike makes landfall in Mexico or the United States, there will be some significant property damage, disruption of daily life and very possibly loss of life. To most people that would be a rather somber thing to contemplate. Your overall attitude in this thread doesn't reflect that and that is why I take umbrage at your continued posting on this topic. Perhaps you are too young to appreciate the significance of the <I>upcoming event</I>.
I don't know what your problem is. I'm from Houston. More specifically from Sugar Land, TX.. I don't know what you mean by troll when I'm a Rockets fan.
Well you know it has to hit somewhere....and i'm not one for wishing these things upon someone else. There is harm in it hitting us, but it might as well.
Still a dangerous event for Houston, even if it makes landfall toward Freeport. Gustav was a Cat 2, and Baton Rouge is 50+ miles inland... and they got hammered. The pictures I've seen of the LSU campus looked awful, and as of Saturday 70 percent of the city was still without power. It's certainly not time to panic, but the northern and eastern sides of these things are rough.
You have consistantly wanted hurricanes to hit Houston like a complete fool. Someone else already called you on being a troll as well. You're not even worth responding to
The 00z model runs of the GFDL and HWRF should be really interesting. If they move even further to the south, I would not be surprised especially since the GFS contributes some of its forecasting to the GFDL's overall synopsis.
You and Phelps, exit left. You're adding nothing to this thread but bleeding of my retinas. You both act like your twelve years old, you both have zero knowledge of the basics of meteorology and you're both adding zero to this thread. Grow up and please, shut the **** up.
