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[Ike] New Tropical Threat

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Faos, Sep 2, 2008.

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rhadamanthus Member

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my money is somewhere between houston and corpus.

#221 rhadamanthus, Sep 8, 2008

SwoLy-D Member

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Kam said:

Will my house blow down?
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This actually made me LOL. I hope this is not YOU posting that question, Kam, just a "paraphrasing" of what one of those morans said.

#222 SwoLy-D, Sep 8, 2008
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Based on the updated models, looks like Louisiana will be completely spared from Ike.

#223 Lima Time, Sep 8, 2008
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Jeff said:

Well, that's assuming those venues aren't already booked with events.
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Or hurricane Ike. Flooding could be an issue for those areas as well.

#224 Faos, Sep 8, 2008
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Ike is now off shore of the coast of Cuba. It will not get any weaker until it makes another landfall tomorrow on the far west Cuba. So it's a border line cat 2 cat 1 right now, and it'll be a weak cat 1 when entering the GOM. Based on the latest model runs, and the most reliabe, Houston might be dealing with a major cat 3 hurricane by this weekend. Good luck Houstonians. This will be another Rita.

#225 mazyar, Sep 8, 2008
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From TampaSpin, a good blogger on WU.

KE is now a CAT. 2 Hurricane with winds at at 105mph with pressure at 952mb estimated moving nearly due WEST at 15mph. Ike is now moving on the Southern side of Bermuda/Azores High and a building High over Southern Mississippi. Look at any of the steering maps and you can see both Highs. I would still use Steering Layer 300-850mb or 950-969mb pressure 90-112kt storms, as the map to watch for guidiance. If you recall in my previous blog i spoke of the High would be building over IKE. The High in Mississippi will be moving East and allow Ike to come up the WEST side. How, fast this high move east and how strong it remains will determine where IKE goes.

I looked at all the major models and a better understanding is coming. Nearly all Models do not see IKE hitting South Florida except the possibly the KEYS. All MODELS have IKE interacting with Cuba for at least another 24-30hours. All models take IKE into the GOM.
A shift EAST has occured with the latest computer runs. The shift is about 250 miles EAST on average. Look at the bottom of this blog at the computer runs for IKE and compare the last 2 runs.
I looked at the 5 major models and all now have a Louisiana Landfall Hurricane. This is going to be about timing since the High is in Mississippi now. Since the High is already in Miss. i would think IKE will slow down and almost stall as it moves south between the 2 Highs as steering could get weak. As the highs west side erodes and allows IKE to move up the SW side, IKES path will be detemined as to where IKE is as the HIGHs WEST side is eroded. Simply put, if the HIGH in Mississippi's west side erodes faster and retreats East then IKE could move more toward Mississippi. If the High is slow to move EAST and stays strong on the WEST side then a track toward TEXAS would be coming.

So, where do i think IKE will eventually land? With the current computer model trend moving EAST and IKE is still very far South and EAST of the high over Mississippi. Just looking at Water Vapor loop the high over Mississippi seems to be starting to erode some on the west side and moving EAST. It is still very hard to determine the exact timing, so one would have to go with the concensus of the Models and take aim at Louisiana and possibly further EAST could be coming..

How strong will IKE be at Landfall? No shear is observed during the next 4 days (not good) as conditions will be very favorable for development once in open waters of the GOM. Keep in mind the more IKE spends over Cuba the more likly IKE's innner core will be disrupted and not develop into a Major Hurricane. Until IKE moves off Cuba i would not want to speculate as to how strong he might become. But, if you look at water vapor there is a weakness North of IKE between the 2 highs. There is a possiblity of IKE to feel a pull north of this weakness and stay off Cuba for a longer period of time and maintains its strength. So, lets watch the next day to see if IKE stays off the coast of Cuba.
Southern Florida still needs to pay very close attention to IKE in my opinion because of the weakness. I expect South Florida to experience Tropical Storm force winds as it appears an EWRC (eyewall replacement cycle) is taking place and the wind field will expand because of this.
If IKE stays over Cuba those mountains will certainly disrupt IKE and if IKE does not hit Cuba and enters the GOM this intact and hits the GULF stream, he will become a CAT.5 very quickly. If IKE stays over Cuba for 2 days, he will be a very weak Hurricane and possibly a strong Tropical Storm. IKE would still have time to approach a CAT.3 before its next landfall. I'm not wishcasting this on nobody but, IKE will hit somewhere in the ConUS it appears as a MAJOR HURRICANE is my thinking. This will be a very dangerous Hurricane and must be monitored nearly every model is now putting a track into the GOM. Those living in the possible path of IKE along the GULF Coast should monitor his progress of IKE very close.

The Florida KEYs have is under a mandatory evacuation. If you are in the KEYS, please take this advice and leave. Here is a link to local governments statements and warnings..... Local Governmnet Statement and Warnings Link

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour.
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#226 LonghornFan, Sep 8, 2008
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SwoLy-D said:

This actually made me LOL. I hope this is not YOU posting that question, Kam, just a "paraphrasing" of what one of those morans said.
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Naaa, that's not me, im just reading it for a good laugh. If i want weather updates, or to talk about poop, or watch people from El Paso give handjobs, I come to Clutchfans.

#227 Kam, Sep 8, 2008

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Check out these monsterous waves hitting Cuba. Pretty scary.

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#228 mazyar, Sep 8, 2008
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mazyar said:

Check out these monsterous waves hitting Cuba. Pretty scary.
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Storm surge is a b****.

#229 Jeff, Sep 8, 2008
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Lima Time said:

Based on the updated models, looks like Louisiana will be completely spared from Ike.
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To quote election coverage, "Its' still too close to call."

I'd say New Orleans is probably feeling better and should be.

#230 Jeff, Sep 8, 2008
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Jeff said:

Storm surge is a b****.
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Take it easy there, Jeff. I don't agree w/ everything he says but this is a bit random.

And I'll selfishly say I'm relieved that we've (Florida) dodged another bullet.

#231 professorjay, Sep 8, 2008
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professorjay said:

Take it easy there, Jeff. I don't agree w/ everything he says but this is a bit random.

And I'll selfishly say I'm relieved that we've (Florida) dodged another bullet.
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houston is finally gonna get shot. lol

get the kevlar vest!

okay bad analogy. or is it?

#232 HombreDeHierro, Sep 8, 2008
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HombreDeHierro said:

houston is finally gonna get shot. lol

get the kevlar vest!

okay bad analogy. or is it?
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Either growup or go away.

#233 Mango, Sep 8, 2008

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Mango said:

Either growup or go away.
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what is it with you? mind your own damn business.

#234 HombreDeHierro, Sep 8, 2008
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Well i work as essential personel for a city outside of Houston.. They have access directly to NWS meteoroligst and the city didnt do any thing for Gustav. Yet i was told im on standby and i will be called in by wednesday. So take it as you will.

#235 Hicklander, Sep 8, 2008
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HombreDeHierro said:

what is it with you?
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Mango doesn't have a high tolerance for idiots.

Go figure.

#236 CriscoKidd, Sep 8, 2008
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CriscoKidd said:

Mango doesn't have a high tolerance for idiots.

Go figure.
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haha very funny.

not like i attacked him or anything.

#237 HombreDeHierro, Sep 8, 2008
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You guys should read the chat the Sci-Guy had on the chronic website. Some of the questions....man....

Idiot: Is Sugarland in the surge zone?

SciGuy: No.

Idiot #2: Is Missouri City in the surge zone?

SciGuy: No.

Another Idiot: What about Huntsville?

#238 ima_drummer2k, Sep 8, 2008

Kam Member

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ima_drummer2k said:

You guys should read the chat the Sci-Guy had on the chronic website. Some of the questions....man....

Idiot: Is Sugarland in the surge zone?

SciGuy: No.

Idiot #2: Is Missouri City in the surge zone?

SciGuy: No.

Another Idiot: What about Huntsville?
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haha yeah, i was just talking about that a few post up.

morons.

#239 Kam, Sep 8, 2008
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Michael Phelps said:

I think if it comes to Houston, people will underestimate it because of the way Gustav barely did anything to New Orleans and of course the troubles of what happened when Rita was coming. I still think it has at least a 50% chance of coming to Houston. That's high right now, but I think we will be able to see better on Tuesday/Wednesday.
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Have you ever considered getting another hobby instead of trolling a message board? Seriously, it's become pathetic.

I know of a game you should try. I think your family and friends (nevermind, scratch the friends part) will applaude the decision. It's called Russian Roulette. Give it a try tonight. Don't stop after one try though. Practice makes perfect.

#240 King1, Sep 8, 2008

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