I think its because they are still averaging and the storm itself has continued to move almost due West. If you look at the individual models, most of them (and the most accurate ones) have it going to LA right now. But who knows! The thing might end up in Mexico. I wonder if the cold front currently chugging through the US will have any affect on the tropics.
It's too far out to know whether it will come anywhere close to Houston AND There's no way of knowing, at this point, how weak or strong the hurricane will be when it hits us. If it hits Houston straight on, but is only a cat 1, then we're just going to get a little rain and a little wind, and there's nothing to be afraid of.
That is what Eric posted in his discussions with local forecasters in the SciGuy blog, but this is the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters, who I consider the foremost authority on hurricanes: The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) computer models no longer expect a turn northward towards the Florida Panhandle. As we've seen many times this hurricane season, the models were over-enthusiastic about the intensity of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. High pressure has been dominant over the eastern U.S. the past month, and the models have consistently been underpredicting the dominance of this high pressure. The current steering pattern, with high pressure entrenched over the eastern U.S., steering hurricanes into Florida and the Gulf Coast, is similar to the steering pattern of 2004 and 2005. This steering pattern has acted to steer six straight storms into the U.S., and is not expected to change significantly over the next two weeks, according to the latest long-range forecasts from the GFS model. As Ike moves approaches within 300 miles of the Louisiana coast on Friday, there will be another trough of low pressure capable of turning the storm to the north. The GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Ike northwards into central or western Louisiana. The UKMET and ECMWF models disagree, and think high pressure will dominate enough to force Ike westwards into Texas, between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana border. These two models have been trending too far south with Ike so far, so I would lean towards a landfall in western Louisiana at this point. This is BY FAR from a certainty, but I would not be shocked to see the European (ECMWF) and UK (UKMET) models begin to bend gradually north. Since this storm materialized, they have both been the most southern outliers. The GFDL, once it properly assessed the high pressure ridge over the US (by the way, the models had the EXACT SAME problem with that high pressure ridge in 2005), has been consistently showing landfall between the Mississippi/Louisiana border and the Louisiana/Texas border. It has been the best performer this year as well.
Probably, but I would say wait until this time on Wednesday. I'm guessing that if it is pointed right at us this time tomorrow, Galveston will start calling for evacuations. By Wednesday, we're looking at just over 3 days before landfall and Ike will have passed over the warmest waters in the Gulf. Its track will be much more certain and its intensity will at least be a bit better sorted out.
Interestingly, the tracks have shown a bit of a bend southward in the latest runs, but I'll wait until tomorrow morning to believe that for sure since they've only moved a couple hundred miles in either direction. The intensity models are still showing no more than a cat 3 at landfall and the SHIPS, which is the most reliable (if any intensity forecasting model can be called reliable) doesn't even have it making cat 3 status. The worst case model at the moment is the GFDL which has it dipping slightly south and coming straight up Galveston Bay northward as a strong cat 4 storm. That would be a nightmare for Houston. But, the GFDL's intensity forecasting is a little suspect, so I'd take that with a huge grain of salt at the moment.
Even if we don't get a direct hit, this time we are going to feel Tropical Storm wind effects unless it takes a dramatic turn.
This south and west movement in the models has been consistant for days. First the models said a turn to the north just before Florida, then right on Florida and so on. Perhaps this trend continues and this storm ends up in southern Texas or further.
Nah it won't go any more South than Corpus IMO, if anything it'll head north near Beaumont or into Sabene Pass, LA and etc.
Kind of. Two days ago, there were multiple models (the European and UKMET in particular) that had it hitting northern Mexico while others were aiming at the Florida panhandle. Gradually, that gap has been narrowing with some models moving west and others moving east. Yesterday, the eastern most outliers were in Mississippi and the western most were in south Texas. Today, the eastern most are in central Louisiana while the western most are around Matagorda Bay. If you split the difference, you're looking at an area around the Texas/Louisiana border, which probably makes the most sense at this point. The same thing happened with Rita. None of the models could deal with high pressure in the eastern US - an almost identical pattern in 2005 as exists this summer. If you recall the Katrina and Rita tracks, Katrina was going to hit Florida, but it kept moving west until it turned north towards NO and eventually made landfall just east of there bending back eastward at landfall. The models overcompensated for that high with Rita and you had a bunch of them forecasting landfall in south Texas with others still aiming towards the central Gulf coast. These two most recent hurricanes remind me quite a bit of that same scenario. Houston is still squarely in the middle and a direct hit would not surprise me at all. I'd rather it didn't, but I wouldn't be surprised.
I was planning on going to Houston this weekend, but I just found out about this storm potentially heading there...I usualy only watch sports, skinamax or hbo... So, I guess its going to Houston right? by Saturday?
That would be ridiculous if they turned one of our home games into a road game. Why couldn't we just play the game in San Antonio or Dallas?
I JUST caught that update. Had been waiting. The HWRF model would be a freaking disaster for Houston, particularly if it really did make landfall as a cat 4. We could be talking serious destruction even deep into the city center. One of the big problems in Houston is that developers haven't built a lot of the buildings - not houses - to withstand massive storms. A major hurricane could seriously damage large structures. That would be a worst-case scenario.
Anyone reading the chron chat with the weather guy? Some of those chron people are morons. Will my house blow down?
Geography wise, there doesn't seem to be that much difference between <I>near Beaumont</I> and <I>Sabine Pass</I>.
My wife showed me this one today. Pretty cool site. Has the middle of the cone heading straight into the Ship Channel.
