History means absolutly nothing when forcasting.....there are too many variables, steering currents, upper level atmosphere, cold fronts....just too many.... And we only have 100 years of data...truthfully less than that....I don't know how they claim to have tracked those storms prior to 1940..because there was no Hurricane hunters etc.... And to claim they have data on an 1880s storm....PUHHHSLLLEEAAASEEE ! DD
Actually, it's the NHC official track that has been the most accurate through the last 10 years. the GFDL and the HWRF (basically, the replacement for the GFDL at some point in the future) are considered the two most accurate models mainly because they are run by the NOAA and the NHC respectively. They still have a forecast inaccuracy of 300 miles at 5 days out as does the official forecast, but they are generally better than the others. The GFDL throughout has suggested a bend to the north towards day 4. The HWRF has also, but it has had much more pronounced movement to it. The GFS now has the same bend, although it takes the storm further to the east before bending it straight north. I tend to discount stuff like that because it is just so far out. More gradual movement is easier to predict. At this point forward, the track is going to become more accurate, but we won't be able to gain greater insight until the storm emerges off of Cuba. That will not only impact strength, but the forecast track as land interactions tend to impact a storms track. It should emerge off of Cuba early tomorrow morning and then we'll have a better idea where Ike is headed.
Ike is still moving west, it looks like it may nudge off into the Caribbean now. Those winds may not drop off as much as we thought.
Not one model has it slamming into Mexico... It has went south a considerable amount after all. much more impressive hurricane than Gustav.
That depends on how far off of Cuba it goes. If it stays within 50 miles of land, it will continue to weaken or at least not strengthen.
And on the weekend too. You would think that we could at least get a day off out of this, but noooooooooo.....
They're taking this pretty seriously here at UTMB. They didn't take Gustav seriously at all. I'm guessing that if it looks like it's going to hit us late Wednesday, we may get off on Friday.
We'll get the "dirty side" all right. I noticed that the 8 a.m. tracking had the center going straight to Houston, but the 11 a.m. update has it going a bit more south. It's moving down, gentlemen.
Every storm is different, but I've heard a number of times that because of the errors that can exist in long range hurricane forecasting, if you're in the bulls eye on the 5+ day forecast you're usually safe. We'll see what we got once this thing gets into the Gulf. Jeff, I've been reading that forecasters are prefering the European model for this storm (which happens to currently be pointing right at us). What makes this model better at this time?
Right now, the models are averaging to the hurricane tracks you are seeing, but if you check the different model maps, most have it going either East or West of Houston, with more and more putting it into LA with a late right turn. I haven't seen a model actually put it into Houston in a while.
The Texans are supposed to play at home Sunday. I wonder if they'll think about moving the game to Baltimore? (Obviously once the track is narrowed down and is still pointing toward Houston.)
Which is almost identical to what we saw with Gustav. As the models kept changing, we noted that the NHC forecast wasn't signficantly changing. If the Gustav trend holds up, we're in for something out of this.
I think that if the models stay somewhat where they are now, the national hurricane folks will be a little more bold and track it into LA and discount the models that have it going West.
But wait...and I'm really not trying to start an argument!! .... the NHC already had these models in consideration...and they still moved their forecast further WEST at 11 a.m. EST. Their prior track looked more like the upper Texas coast. Now it's south and west of Galveston.
