1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

If you score TD first in OT, do you go for 2pt conversion?

Discussion in 'Football: NFL, College, High School' started by celebrevida, Feb 12, 2024.

?

If you score TD first in OT, do you go for 2pt conversion?

  1. Always

    1 vote(s)
    12.5%
  2. Never

    4 vote(s)
    50.0%
  3. Depends

    3 vote(s)
    37.5%
  1. celebrevida

    celebrevida Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Messages:
    860
    Likes Received:
    349
    I really like the new improved OT rules. Now both teams get a possession even if the initial receiving team scores a TD!

    This makes it fair in case you have two teams with outstanding offenses and bad defenses. In that situation, whoever wins the coin toss gets a huge advantage obviously.

    Now everyone says that if you win the coin toss, you elect to receive because if you score a TD, you force the other team to match and then go to sudden death. In a situation where both teams have great offenses and bad defenses, you would have possession in sudden death after two TDs are scored by both teams and can win. So coin toss still matters somewhat.

    HOWEVER what makes the situation more fair for the team losing the coin toss is the 2pt conversion. You win the coin toss and score a TD and go for PAT. Well guess what if your team has bad defense, they likely will match and then rather then give the ball back so you score and win in sudden death with just a FG, you can go for 2pt conversion to outright win.

    So with that in mind, is it really that obvious that you always for PAT if you win the coin toss and score a TD on the opening OT possession? Actually I say you should go for 2pt conversion ALWAYS. Best case, you win or prevent the other team from winning with 2pt conversion if the opposing team with second possession matches your TD.

    Worse case they beat you by one point because you failed on 2pt conversion and they win with PAT. But in that case, it's basically no different than if you were the team with the second possession and chose to win it with 2 pt conversion and failed. So going for 2 pt conversion on the first possession is just putting yourself in the same position as if you were the team with the second possession trying to win with 2 pt conversion.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2003
    Messages:
    47,101
    Likes Received:
    16,389
    If my defense sucks and the opposing offense is good then yeah.
     
    Rocket River likes this.
  3. PhiSlammaJamma

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 1999
    Messages:
    28,633
    Likes Received:
    6,938
    As far as taking the ball: Defenses are exhausted by that point in the game. Adrenaline and effort catch up to you. I want my defense to rest. And I want their defense on the field. That's my first priority. Take the ball. McCaffrey was chunking them, so I think it was the right decision.

    Second. I agree with the 49ers strategy. They changed the rules because sudden death favors the offense analytically. So analytically, we all know that is absolutely true. It's mathematically favorable.

    In opposition they will argue that the Chiefs had 4 gowns. But the truth is both teams have four downs if they want it. So while I get that argument, it's not really true.

    I would not go for two either. It's a coin flip to get the 2, therefore a coin flip to win or lose. And I don't want to be the team putting my superbowl on a coin flip. I'd rather put my trust in a kick and let the other team gamble.
     
    #3 PhiSlammaJamma, Feb 13, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2024
    Rocket River likes this.
  4. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2006
    Messages:
    41,981
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Not if you score first.

    If you score second, instead of kicking for the tie, you should go for two since the other team probably owns your defense and will kick a short FG to win on the following possession.

    Think of the Falcons in SB51. If today's rules applied then and they scored an OT TD following the Pats, they would definitely have gone for two to win because Brady was shredding their defense like cheese.

    EDIT: Kyle Shanahan made a big mistake by taking the ball first. He'll have a hard time living that down just like calling two pass plays (1 holding penalty, 1 sack) after the Falcons were in clinching FG range.
     
    #4 A_3PO, Feb 13, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2024
    Rocket River likes this.
  5. celebrevida

    celebrevida Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Messages:
    860
    Likes Received:
    349
    I think the fact the other team will almost always go TD+2 rather than play to tie if you scored TD+1 first is why you go TD+2 even if you go first. You do it as a pre-emptive measure to prevent the situation where you went TD+1 and then have the other team win it with TD+2.
     
    Rocket River likes this.
  6. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2003
    Messages:
    47,101
    Likes Received:
    16,389
    Someone please explain to me how taking the ball first is a mistake.

    Your defense gets to rest and in the event of a 3rd possession you get to go first in sudden death.

    The mistake was kicking the fieldgoal and not going for the touchdown.

    The odds you can get 4 yards and/or score from there are probably greater than the odds you can stop Mahomes from scoring once he gets the ball.

    Of course at that point it the 2-pt conversion becomes a real option. But that's an MMQB debate for another day.
     
    #6 DonnyMost, Feb 13, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2024
    marks0223 likes this.
  7. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2006
    Messages:
    41,981
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    If the 49ers deferred and the Chiefs scored a TD+1 on the first possessions, the 49ers would have gained an extra down when they had the ball. By taking the ball first, the 49ers settled for a short FG instead and lost.
     
  8. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2003
    Messages:
    47,101
    Likes Received:
    16,389
    I think this is going to be how we start seeing stuff playing out in the future.

    You want to be able to dictate the terms of how the games end, and going for two works to that end.

    I still think we need to adopt the college OT format.
     
  9. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2003
    Messages:
    47,101
    Likes Received:
    16,389
    There is nothing stopping the 49ers from using their 4th downs on their own first drive.

    They know just as well as anyone that doing anything other than scoring 8 points puts them in a sudden death situation.

    There is no advantage to going second.
     
    Major likes this.
  10. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2006
    Messages:
    41,981
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    This makes no sense if the two-point try chance of success is less than 50%.
     
  11. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2006
    Messages:
    41,981
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Yes, there was literally nothing stopping them...except they faced a 4th and 4 on the KC 9 yard-line. Failing to convert and scoring nothing was giving the game away easy.
     
  12. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2003
    Messages:
    47,101
    Likes Received:
    16,389
    We don't really know what the success rate is of 2 point tries in OT in the NFL.

    In college OT the data says you should always go for 2 in OT, FWIW.

    The NFL is such an offensively bias league it stands to reason that you'd want to end the game, win or lose, with the ball in your own hands and the decisions you make with it.

    If your offense sucks dog balls and your defense is elite that's a different story, but that's becoming more and more rare over time in terms of championship caliber teams.
     
  13. Major

    Major Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 1999
    Messages:
    41,374
    Likes Received:
    15,796
    There's no scenario where the 49ers have more options or more advantages by giving the Chiefs the ball first. Anything you say the Chiefs can do on their 2nd possession, the 49ers can do on their first. They might not take advantage of those options, but that's a choice they get to make.

    There are many advantages the team possessing the ball first has - the most important of which is total control of their own destiny, which the 2nd team doesn't have.
     
  14. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2006
    Messages:
    41,981
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    This 49ers reporter (the best one IMO), has some insights on possibly why they decided to go on offense first in OT.

     

Share This Page