If we draft Bridgewater, is Playoff in 2014 too much to ask for?

It's not the same when you compare the talent/age of KC '12 to Houston '13. Eric Berry was still recovering from an acl in 2012 and he is undeniably better than our safeties. More importantly their front 7 turned around, and that was because D.Poe started playing at a pro bowl level. Wade's 1 gap NT scheme was supposed to fit for undersized tackles like Earl Mitchell and he's been nonexistent except that one preseason game. Maybe Whitney can turn into Justin Houston, but that's a big unknown and we still lack inside pressure. Poe just had his JPP year of NTs and we don't have that prospect to spark a turnaround, at least for 2014.

Brooks Reed is looking like a salvage. Barwin's turnaround can be explained; pass rushing skills overlap from DE to OLB. And Wade on an X's/O's level was able to free him up for a year before the league caught up. If Reed was rated highly as a pass rusher and he's not showing it, there's no reason to think his skills/strengths are better suited for the inside, because then that's what he'd be drafted as. He can't shed blocks and he suffered in coverage.

 

I've already said how different things were in 2011 vs. how they are now... and how it still took the addition of 4 new players via free agency or draft to turn that defense around (5 if you include Barwin returning from injury).

The only existing players in 2011 that were "coached up" were an all-pro level Cushing who made a seamless transition to ILB, and Antonio Smith (who's effectiveness dramatically improved when he was paired with Watt). Getting Joseph/Manning allowed Quinn to move to safety as well

If the Texans not only implement a new scheme, but find a number of players via draft/FA that fit that scheme perfectly, then they do have a chance for a turnaround... but nobody is going to come in here and turn the current player that are either coming off injury, or just not that good, into an elite bunch.

Also, in regards to the number of close games... I've already said that I think this team has been playing hard, they've been "battle-fighting", and you can make a lot of games in the NFL close by doing just that. I do not feel, however, that they are "giving games away", or that they're simply underachieving. If anything, they've over-achieved to be in some of the closer games as of late (including games against the mediocre Jaguars x2, and the mediocre Raiders).

 

You’re making a lot of assumptions about systems & schemes given that we don’t know who the head coach is and what systems/schemes he’ll want to run…

Like Kareem Jackson in 2010, the Texans have young players who have some pedigree who might see improvement in a better system/scheme. I was laughed at for saying the same thing three years ago. IMO, Merciless, Reed, Hopkins, a host of young O Linemen… I don’t think the Texans are as talent-poor as you think.

Cushing and Foster weren’t elite in 2011? That’s news to… well, virtually everybody. (And I didn’t see any issues with Cushing, pre-injuries in ’12 or ‘13; I did see the defense take noticeable declines once he went down both years.)

Cushing broke his leg. Relative to his 2012 injury, it’s much less worrisome; he should be 100% by spring drills. Foster is more problematic; I’m far less dubious of him returning fully healthy and certainly not elite. But I’m also far less concerned about finding a competent running back.

Again, this was the same sentiment in 2010…

And, frankly, it’s oblivious to the state of the league as a whole, where few teams are talent-rich. Beyond elite QBs, list off the All-Pros on New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Miami, San Diego… None of those teams have a defensive player as singularly destructive as JJ Watt. Off the top of my head, I wouldn’t trade our LT for any of their LTs. Andre Johnson would be the best WR on every one of those teams. Etc., etc. What do they definitively have that the Texans don’t? I would trade our coaching staff for any of theirs; and, Flacco aside (contract), I’d trade our (current) QB for theirs.

Kansas City, San Francisco & Seattle – they’re the Texans of 2009: young teams that have been stockpiling (and hitting on) high draft choices for years. They’re also a bit of an exception in today’s NFL. The Texans have enough talent to win 9+ games - *if* they can upgrade their head coach and QB. And they are in prime position to do both.

I asked earlier: do you think this team - even with Kubiak - loses 8 in row by 7 or fewer points if Matt Schaub, circa 2011, is the QB? There's no way. His decline, along with the team checking out on Kubiak, have collapsed this (and last) season.

 

Hey Now, if I only knew about the Texans from your posts in this thread and nothing else, I'd assume they were Super Bowl bound!

I don't think it's as simple as Matt Schaub and Gary Kubiak. But that's just me.

 

Nick, no one is suggesting a coaching change alone is going to move this team back to elite status; but we've seen scores of players improve dramatically due to new regimes/systems, and the Texans have talent that might very well benefit from a new regime/system (not to mention, fresh perspective).

Further, this won't be a status quo roster - it's going to (presumably) add four top 97 prospects, including the best overall player in college football. I don't have any idea what they might do with the cap/in free agency - but there's an opportunity to add talent to this team.

They absolutely gave away the Baltimore and Seattle games. Again, insert just 2011 Schaub... and they beat Seattle. (And at least play Baltimore close.) From there, it's a runaway train. Do they get blasted by the Niners if they beat Seattle (to go 3-1, btw)? And if they play competently against the Niners (win or lose), do they face plant against the Rams? How much different are the Chief and Colt games with competent QB play? (And while I recognize Keenum played well - for a half - in each of those games, we also have to recognize that he was exploited in the second half of both games. Do those teams shut down 2011 Schaub?)

I think that Seattle/SF/St. Louis stretch doomed the season; the meltdown of Schaub was complete and it spread through the team like a virus, culminating in Kubiak picking Schaub (to start against the Rams) and losing the locker room. Everything from that stretch on - I admire the team for playing hard - but it was a team that had checked out.

I think the season is *dramatically* different if the QB doesn't complete his implosion and sink the campaign. I really do. We see good QBs put a fresh coat of paint on soooooo many bad situations in the NFL...

 

Of course it's not that simple, but HC and QB are the 2 main ingredients for winning. Schaub/Kubiak both below average.

 

Jokes and fun and all............ but for the record, I've been pretty consistent that I think they can be a 9-ish win team next year - good enough to challenge for a playoff spot. I might be overselling the team to counter Nick's POV but I don't think they'll win 11-12 games (although, in today's NFL... no one should be surprised if they do), or anything like that.

(If they can get to the postseason, you know my thoughts on that - the best team rarely wins it so I'll take my chances.)

 

I think it's very possible given that we'll be playing a last place schedule and the train wreck of a division that is the NFC East, not to mention our own crappy division.

 

When comparing to KC, one should recognize how horrible the AFC South has been relative to the AFC West the last few years. There is absolutely no "Denver Broncos" for the Texans to have to overcome.

 

Have to say, I'd still be surprised if they won 11-12 games. I know it's possible...and that it happens some. But I'd still be really surprised. I really do think this is a bad team. I think they have a pretty big sample size over the last season and a half to show that now. And I think they have very limited flexibility to fix that. I'd really love to be wrong though.

 

I disagree.

We've seen this team commit failures at every single aspect of the game dating back to LAST season... some of it is coachable, most of it needs an influx of talent.

This team has not put together a complete game since LAST SEASON's Baltimore game. Teams that are "one player away, or one enforcing coach away" don't do that.

The team in 2010 was drastically different... first of all, the offense didn't need to be improved talent-wise (and, eventually in 2012, got less talented by getting rid of the right side of the O-line). Secondly, you are severely downgrading the influx of talent that came along with Wade that led to the defense improving (5 key players/starters hat were not there in 2010-11... that's half the defense!). Lastly, that team still won 6 games... and a lot of the games they lost, you couldn't really say they were outplayed.

Outside the Seattle game, this team has been outplayed, out-executed, out-coached, out-classed and out-talented (if that's a word). Hanging on to the hopes that this team's core as is just a Schaub-2011 QB away from making the playoffs is the same short-sightedness that Rick Smith has convinced the owner of.

Foster is unlikely to get back to the 2010 All-pro level. 2011 and 2012 versions were good, but not as good as before. Cushing 'should' make a full recovery... but I wouldn't pin the hopes of future seasons on him becoming an all-pro again.

I stand by the statement that the next successful Texans team will be radically different in its core players, with the exception of Watt and possibly Cushing.

 

NFC East has to get better next season... I don't see them being worse than they were this season.

Other than that, the "last place" schedule will only feature two unique games as a result of finishing in last place... a road game at Oakland, and a home game against the Jets or Bills (none of those teams fear the Texans).

 

Remember back when I called out the defense after week 3? Or was it week 4? I was fed stats by everybody saying that the defense was fine. That it was all Schaub's pick 6's fault. That a new QB would make the defense look better.

Yes, I couldn't foresee them losing TWELVE in a row, but I saw a defense that hasn't been elite since 2011, and has been regressing since about halfway since last season.

This was all said BEFORE the season spiraled out of control, and before the team "checked out" as you put it. Hell, it was before the Cushing season-ending injury. If the problem was simply QB, I wouldn't have wasted time arguing any of it... but combine an ineffective/mistake-prone offense with an ineffective/regressing defense, and you get what you have now.

I haven't even begun to consider the extent of a rebuild needed on offense, since a lot of that will depend on what coach/system they get (and also because the offense as constructed is entirely Kubiak's vision... and will need a lot of "undoing" to become somebody else's).

 

So do I. All the Texans need is a QB... and a competent coaching staff.

This not only untrue (they won 6 of 7, post-Baltimore, including a thorough pantsing of the Colts the week after the Monday nighter in New England - that would be their last signature win) but wildly insignificant. No team is perfect; no team fires on all cylinders for 16 consecutive weeks. Heck, they beat the team you think is the best in the AFC (Cincinnati) 11 months ago.

I'm not discounting it at all; it's part of my argument. They added two draft choices (Watt and Reed); returned a player from injury (Barwin); moved key players into new positions (Williams and Quin) and signed two significant free agents. Other than the FAs... the Texans have the potential to repeat the vast majority of those steps (and there's no shut door when it comes to free agency, so far as I know. And the draft picks will be higher).

Again, it's not "core as is" - it's a new coaching staff and at least four top 97 prospects....

It's ultimately irrelevant - but Arian Foster was an uber-elite RB in 2011; 4.4 yards/carry; 1,800 yards from scrimmage; 12 total TDs; 285 rushing yards in two postseason games - and he did it all with his first and second-string QBs missing 8 games (plus Andre Johnson missing, what? Seven).

 

Yeah, I changed it... I think they need more, and will eventually get more with whatever coaching staff comes in and likely starts to clean house.

Something was missing after the Baltimore game... they went from shades of domination that they showed against Denver/Baltimore to "doing just enough to win" (Colts, Bengals, Bears) , or "barely winning" (Detroit, Jacksonville). The end of season collapse makes more sense in hindsight as this team was in regression.

They likely won't be investing the top picks in defense like they did in 2011, largely because the offense is in just as bad shape. The free agents (Joseph/Manning) to me were the KEY of the entire scheme change... allowed Quinn to become a pro-bowl caliber safety, helped Jackson's development, and both Joseph and Manning played very well... better than they are now.

They need a 2006-type draft again. I'm not confident of that if its Rick Smith running things.

He was good that year... but not uber-good. For comparison's sake, that season would be the worst statistical season for both Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. Foster is very, very good... but he won't get back to the 2010 level. If he could, I'd buy more into the "quick fix" motto.

Nobody wants this team to succeed more-so than myself. I won't stop supporting them at all... I've continued to watch every game this year looking for signs of improvement/salvageable parts.

This isn't just some knee-jerk reaction from a "troll" or a casual fan. I've followed them as closely as possible from the beginning, at times thought they were better than they really were (all of last year), and I was optimistic in a quick fix working after 2010. I don't feel that way this time around.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable. But we'll need to actually draft well with the rest of the draft (i.e. not cutting third rounders a few weeks into the season).

 

We can absolutely take back the AFC South next yr.

Colts schedule will be dramatically harder, and we get the raiders, browns, bills... Easy - Peasy

 

Nick has broken the backboard dunking on everyone in the thread that's arguing with him and they don't even know that they have shards of plexiglass in their hair.

 

I don't see this as an easy fix, We have so many problems, QB problem, OL problems, DB problems, LB problems, we have a weakness at every position and honestly I don't trust the front office personnel and I don't EVEN TRUST RICK SMITH because I don't see him as a GM that will get you where you need to be.

Many people have compared us this year to the 2012-2013 Chiefs, The Chiefs were already an established defensive team with great playmakers on defense and i think 6 or 7 players from Chiefs went to the probowl despite having the worst record in the NFL.

So I don't see this team as an easy fix because we have so many weaknesses and I truly think we who we are, we are the worst team in the NFL.

 

the Colts are not that strong, they dont have 1st round pick next year, and have a problem at RB and the O-line is not that great.
also except for KC, the wild card race is wide open.