If there was an NBA expansion draft, which Rockets players would you protect?

Funny thing is contraction is supposedly on the table right now.

 

I'd protect Rick Adelman.
:grin:

 

The first 4 or easy for me...

Scola
Yao
Brooks
Martin

The next two are not as easy but still pretty much no brainers...

Hill has size and youth
Patterson is our Rookie draft pick who has shown flashes of potential

The next one is a little more difficult but still pretty obvious...

Chase Bud is young and athletic with a shooting touch out of this world, the reason he isn't higher is because IMO he lacks that killer instinct. That I am pissed and now I am going to take it to them. Taylor is better at that than him but Taylor is on dimensional.

The last one is the most difficult. Lee has a good contract, is young and athletic and plays D. I would easilily pick him over the rest but his shooting has been poor. What makes it more difficult for me is Ish has a chance to be something special if he develops a 3 point shot. But I worry because although everyone says shooting is the easiest thing to improve in the league. There are still some people who are pathetic at it and never really improve much. If Ish gets above 35% 3 pt accuracy he is our best pg. He plays better D than brooks and is a better distributor than either pg by far. So all that makes me want to protect him. But if he can't shoot above 30% he becomes a liability and a player teams don't have to guard behind the arc. SO should he stay or should he go. Tough one.

I look back over my picks and all I can do is pull CBud into the group. I feel if I leave any of those 3 in the group they will be picked up by the expansion team.

So it comes down to protecting 2 of the following...

Ish, Lee or Bud. Who would have thunk Ish would be in consideration. The problem is I haven't seen enough of him. ANd Bud and Lee show so much promise. Okay pg's are the most difficult to get and Ish looks like he could be special. I take a big risk on him which could later haunt me.

So now it is between Bud and Lee. Budinger does things that make me think he is the second coming of Larry Bird. He is fundamentally sound and overall has been deadly behind the arc.

Lee on the other hand has made a lot of mental mistakes since being here, shoots poorly behind the ar and Shoots ill advised shots. But his athleticism is off the charts and he plays solid D and definitely has more fire.

Wow tough call but since both IMO will never be more than backups are weak links as starters I will give the edge to the guy with more fire.

So Lee beats out Bud for the 8 spot and that is all because Ish's potential to be something special. I may regret it later. But Bud can easier be replaced than an Improved Ish.

Of the players I don't pick I see the following scenarios for us keeping or losing them...

Jeffries remains a Rocket... Good role player but there will be definitely better role players available.

Miller Ditto Jeffries

Taylor might get grabbed but he hasn't shown much and I suspect there will be better more proven talent available... Either way not a big loss

Chuck Hayes is an easy throw in here because no expansion team will pick him. He is the kind of player you want on your bench if you are trying to win a championship. He serves almost no purpose on an expansion team.

Battier not being picked up. (SEE hAYES)

Kyle Lowry WOULD LIKELY STICK. he has an ugly contract for a backup pg and his shooting is suspect. If there are no better pg's he might go but I think no one will want to pick up that contract so we will get him back

Budinger is definitely gone

 

I think protecting the best talent on the best contracts is essential.

Brooks goes without saying, ripsnorter of a contract for his production

Scola another no brainer

Martin not a huge deal for a good scorer

Patterson rookie scale salary and definite upside on both ends

Hill as above

Hayes elite defender against PFs

Budinger you'd hate to give away a developing talent on such a low $ amount

Lee see above


So I've left the following out to dry:
Yao Ming
Shane Battier
Kyle Lowry
Jermaine Taylor
Ish Smith
Brad Miller
Jared Jeffries

For the purposes of the exercise, I would assume that this was happening prior to this season (contract wise) and therefore I'd be happy to lose any of Ming, Battier or Jeffries simply get them off the books.

I doubt they'd pick up Lowry or Miller - who are both on longish contracts - a new franchise would be loath to take on those sorts of deals; Taylor and Smith would probably slide on by.

 

Protected in Bold

Yao Ming
Luis Scola
Kevin Martin
Aaron Brooks
Shane Battier
Chase Budinger
Kyle Lowry
Jordan Hill
Courtney Lee
Jermaine Taylor
Ish Smith
Chuck Hayes
Brad Miller
Jared Jeffries
Patrick Patterson

 

I don't see why anyone would want to protect Lowry. Like anyone is gonna want a PG who can't shoot for 24 million dollars.

 

Well, we just signed him. If we wanted him gone, then we could have let him walk already.

Or are we discovering that Ish can be a capable backup PG? Or do we really think that no one will take him?

 

Yao
Scola
Martin
Brooks
Hill
Budinger
Patterson
Lee

Lowry- unprotected for contract reasons. Decent chance they still take him though, and it would hurt.

Battier- high probability he wouldn't get picked IMO; not much of an asset to a building team

Everyone else is pretty unlikely/wouldn't hurt us much to lose. I could see them plucking Ish or JT away as young, cheap project players. I thought about leaving Yao off, but assuming he gets a short term deal I think he would get snatched up very quickly for the publicity. I think we still need to ride him out and see if there's any hope left before completely giving up on him.

 

This seems to be a relatively easy choice for me...

we do not need to protect any expiring contract who is unlikely to command more than MLE from the open market, which means we can safely unprotect Shane even if we would like to have him past this season.

same goes for hayes and (gasp) jeffries.

Brad Miller has a contract that no expansion team will try to touch and Taylor is someone we tried to trade away for 2nd picks to sign Dampier...

The only question is if we protect Yao. I would be willing to take the gamble to unprotect him - and if the expansion team drafts him, we can try to persuade him to accept MLE to come back next year. - He probably commends more in the open market assume not big injuries, but it's not out of the question that he accepts such proposals...

that, leaves us with a protection list of:


•Luis Scola
•Kevin Martin
•Aaron Brooks
•Kyle Lowry
•Jordan Hill
•Courtney Lee
•Patrick Patterson
•Chase Budinger

and the following players unprotected:

•Yao Ming
•Shane Battier
•Jermaine Taylor
•Ish Smith
•Chuck Hayes
•Brad Miller
•Jared Jeffries

 

Yao Ming p
Luis Scola p
Kevin Martin p
Aaron Brooks p
Shane Battier
Chase Budinger p
Kyle Lowry p
Jordan Hill p
Courtney Lee p
Jermaine Taylor
Ish Smith
Chuck Hayes
Brad Miller
Jared Jeffries
Patrick Patterson

 

Yao Ming
Luis Scola
Kevin Martin
Aaron Brooks
Chase Budinger
Jordan Hill
Courtney Lee
Patrick Patterson

 

Category I: Must keeps
1. Jordan Hill
2. Aaron Brooks
3. Patrick Patterson
4. Chase Budinger
^These guys are the core of our team now and for the future. Anybody who left any of these four guys out just gave away free players.

Category II: Irreplaceables
5. Luis Scola
6. Yao Ming
7. Kevin Martin
^KM and Scola were supposed to be the ones who keep this team competitive. Yao gets special mention because he's a cash cow and obviously Les would fire Morey if he didn't include him in the list

1 last spot:
-Courtney Lee
^Well this is my pick simply because I love his all around play and versatility. Could also be Ish the way they play.

Please take them for free:
1. Brad Miller
2. Jared Jeffries
3. Kyle Lowry (he certainly hasn't been playing like he wants to stay here).

 

It would be interesting to see what sort of team you could come up with for an expansion team. I remember with the Bobcats a lot of 'decent' players that were not performing to their contract value (for us a Battier or possibly even Yao) were put up but the Bobcats didn't want a bar of it and ended up with a chunk of cap room. Considering 6 years on they have only just hit the playoffs and Wallace is the only remaining player they picked up in the expansion draft(Also pretty much the only active in the league) I wonder if they would do it differently now? The big names at the time like Stackhouse, Jones, Walker and Houston probably wouldn't of done a great deal.

 

I'd probably pull of a trade and concentrate some of my talent first. Problem with this team is we have a lot of "good" players but not many "great" ones.

 

Any expansion GM is going to have to have 15 players and fit them under the salary cap so he is not just going to just look at the best talent but also he is going to have to look at the affect on the salary cap and his ability to put more quality players on the team. Because of this players like Kirk Hinrich that are quality NBA players might not get taken by a team. Anyway here is my list


I think the following are protected with out a second thought.
Luis Scola – A PF that averages 20 and 10 that only makes 7.7 million a season would get snagged in a heartbeat so I definitely protect him.
Aaron Brooks – He is a steal at only 2 million a year and would almost definitely get selected.
Chase Budinger – A great bargain on a young up and comer. No way I leave him unprotected
Courtney Lee
Jordan Hill
Kevin Martin – you don't leave a young 25 ppg scorer unprotected even if he is making 10 million a year

The next 2 spots require some head scratching
Yao Ming – Will a team take Yao with all the question marks surrounding his health and his high price tag.? I think he would get taken as most teams would love to take a 1 year flier on him to see if his surgery works but maybe not. If the Rockets loose him that would be a 17.6 million trade exception though and the team could start moving ahead. Personally I think I would keep him and I think the Rockets would to but this would not be a slam dunk IMO.
Kyle Lowry – Since he makes 5.7 million a season the Rockets might be willing to dangle him out their. Particularly since other high profile guards like Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas and TJ Ford would likely be dangled out there as well. Would an expansion team want to spend that much money on a career back-up? Lowry has been a little disappointing to start the season and Ish Smith has looked just as good or better so far this season. I would probably but him up for grabs.
Chuck Hayes – I'm not sure how much of a demand there is for a 6'6” center that has little offense and can't shoot free throws. But Chuck has been as valuable to the team since last season as anyone. He plays premier defense and only costs 2 million a year. He might be the glue type player that an expansion team might be willing to pick up. I know I want Chuck on my team but who do you leave unprotected if you protect Chuck? Patrick Patterson? Jordan Hill?
Patrick Patterson – I would think leaving a 1st year lottery pick unprotected would be a sure way to loose him and I'm not close to wanting to loose Pat. I think he has a chance to be an outstanding PF on both ends of the floor. But just like Hayes who do you who does Pat replace?

I would leave the rest unprotected and even hope for some to get taken
Shane Battier
Jarred Jeffries
Brad Miller
Ish Smith
Jermain Taylor