If there is no NBA season, what happens to the NBA Draft?

jopatmc's NHL calculation would probably work out better for us than a straight three year average wins/losses method. Doing a rough estimation (using draft order instead of actual wins/losses), the Knicks' average pick over the last three years was 11. Our average pick over the last three years was 17, meaning under that method we would lose our first round pick because of the TWill trade.

 

I understand the rationale behind the 2005 NHL draft. They had lost a season so every team needed at least one shot at getting a top draft pick since even playoff teams had aged a year with no activity. At the same time, they weighted it in favor of teams without playoff appearances and that had not been lucky enough in previous draft lotteries to give them the best chance of getting to the top of the lottery. But it was still a lottery 1-30 and although one of the teams with the most ping pong balls was able to get the top pick, the entire draft was a crap shoot with some very good teams getting into the top 15 of the NHL draft.

If the NBA loses an entire season, the top teams from 2011 and some borderline playoff teams can make a case that they would have been lottery teams in the season (2011-12) that wasn't played. So, I don't see any way around having a lottery that includes every team. And I don't see any way around weighting it to favor teams that have had a worse record for an extended period of time and haven't had the fortune of winning a lottery for an extended period of time. And the weighting would seem to have to continue all the way throughout the draft so that teams in historically big markets that have won over and over like the Lakers and Celtics are actually at the bottom of the lottery odds along with teams that have been in the playoffs recently and/or have won the lottery recently. So, overall record for a period of time, playoff appearances over a period of time, championships over a period of time, and winning the lottery or being in the top ?? selections in the lottery over a shorter period of time would seem to be the logical factors to the formula the NBA builds for a draft lottery after a missed season.

If so, we are in a favorable position since we own our pick if it falls in the top 14 and we own the Knicks pick if it falls below the first 5. With a little bit of luck we could conceivable have two picks in the top 10. That puts us in good position to move up in 2012 or make a big trade or two to round out a championship contending team. Morey has done a good job, guys, of positioning this team to compete and be competitive in the future. We're just in need of a little luck with the lottery and a little luck with health. The Rox are doing an amazing job of player evaluation and valuation. Morey has done an excellent job with his picks and trades. We are not destitute. We are on the cusp of being able to compete for championships with our core being relatively young once Scola is moved for even more picks, younger players. (How about Martin, Scola and two top 10 picks in 2012 for Dwight Howard and a bad contract?)

 

By the way, in a lockout shortened season, the Knicks, who were not very good after the big Melo trade and actually fell in the standings substantially and were in danger of missing the playoffs last season, are one Amare or Melo twisted knee away from the 2012 lottery. Without a substantial upgrade (Shumpert and Josh Harrelson were their draftees) they may very well be a bottom tier playoff team at best even with Amare and Melo healthy. Unless Melo ratchets up his game, his offensive inefficiency will drag down this team and it could capitulate in New York if they cannot make a trade and Billups, in the last year of his deal, gets fed up with Melo's propensity to jack up way too many bad shots.

 

That's easy. 7,380-7,380.

 

Thank you for figuring this out, I was wondering how the NHL solution would apply to the NBA. It would be very interesting. so there would be 46 total ping pong balls, and we would have 4 right? that's 8.6% for the top pick, with good chances for the next picks. our best case would be the knicks pick >5 and our pick <15 right? maybe a lockout isn't so bad lol.

edit: yeah not 8.6 for the top, im an idiot lol.

 

This isn't from excel, just my brain's calculating, so I could be off on a few numbers:

1. Minnesota T-Wolves 56-190
2. Sacramento Kings 66-180
3. Washington Wizards 68-178
4t. New Jersey Nets 70-176
4t. LA Clippers 70-176
6. Golden State Warriors 91-155
7. Toronto Raptors 95-151
8. Detroit Pistons 96-150
9. NY Knicks 103-143
10. Indiana Pacers 105-141
11. Philadelphia 76ers 109-137
12. Memphis Grizzlies 110-136
13. Milwaukee Bucks 115-131
14. New Orleans Hornet 122-124
15. Charlotte Hornets 123-123
16. OKC Thunder 128-118
17. Houston Rockets 138-108
18. Phoenix Suns 140-106
19t. Chicago Bulls 144-102
19t. Atlanta Hawks 144102
21. Cleveland Browns 147-99
22. Miami Heat 148-98
23. Utah Jazz 151-95
24. Portland Trailblazers 152-94
25. Denver Nuggets 157-89
26. Dallas Mavericks 162-84
27. San Antonio Spurs 165-81
28. Boston Celtics 168-78
29. Orlando Magic 170-76
30. LA Lakers 179-67

 

Killing the whole season would be devestating to the league. It would be like killing the NBA all together. Not gonna happen.

 

Now I'm really confused.

 

I finished my exams, have time :



Ordered from worst to best record:

1. MIN
2. SAC
3. WAS
4. NJN
5. LAC
6. GS
7. TOR
8. DET
9. NYK
10. IND
11. PHI
12. MEM
13. MIL
14. CHA
15. OKC
16. NOH
17. HOU
18/19. PHO/UTA
20/21. ATL/CHI
22. CLE
23. MIA
24. POR
25. DEN
26. DAL
27. SAS
28. BOS
29. ORL
30. LAL

 

So we would get the 9th pick with the NY swap?

 

Nope. We would get the 9th pick if that were the draft order. The swap was this draft, which we obviously didn't use. As long as the Knicks pick in '12 isn't in the top 5, it is ours.


But, if that were the draft order, we would owe our pick (17) to the Nets.

 

If an NHL system is used, I'd argue it should be modified to exclude certain perennially good teams. If your record over the last (x) years is better than (x) percent and you made the playoffs in some number of the last few years, then you are excluded from the lottery for a lotto pick, and your order is determined in a seperate process. And clearly more weight should be given to most recent season(s).

 

An easy way would be for the NBA to just to run the lottery using the number of lottery balls each team has had over the last three years to determine placement for all teams that have missed at least one playoff the past three seasons. Teams that made the playoff each season would be placed solely by record.

 

IF the NBA does their format like that, we have a decent chance at a top 10 pick. Some of these teams that keep losing are just terrible franchises

2 straight non-playoff appearances. Phoenix, Utah, and Cleveland have only missed the playoffs once in the last 3 season, but Indiana, Memphis, and New York have also missed. I just realized Philly has actually had two playoff appearances in the last two years.

It depends on the pong ratio though.

Cleveland shouldn't have the first pick again, anyway. Also, they have had consecutive seasons in the playoffs before this year. Who cares if LeBron left?


Minnesota doesn't deserve it, since their organization is terminally incompetent. Especially with David Kahn, they should punish him for implying that the NBA draft is rigged.

Joe Joe's (and JayZ) idea is what should be ideally implemented.

 

not based on record, but playoff appearances if they follow NHL's method