If teams are tanking for Wemby the Rockets should....?

Whether one is pro-tank or anti-tank, the Rockets players and coaching staff are pro-win and it's hard to imagine this team finishing inside the top 5 worst records barring injury. Yes they are young, but compared to OKC, Orlando, Spurs, & Jazz the Rockets are looking like a far superior team. Then you look at teams like Detroit, Indiana, and Portland and you can see the Rockets in the mix of those teams.

We're not getting the worst record in the league this year and very unlikely to be the worst 4. To do that, Jalen Green and/or Smith would have to underperform and it would raise questions about how good they really were.

This team will finish 5-8, and that's not considering a borderline playoff team losing a star to injury and deciding to tank. So we're looking at a 6% - 10.5% chance of landing Wemby instead of a 14% chance. I can live with that.

I was very happy we finished with the worst record last year and got Jabari. For this year, I think we're looking at a top 10 pick.

My preference would be if the lottery weighted the records of the last 3 seasons of a team vs just the last (so 50%-30%-20%) which would make it less likely to tank since you'd have to be bad for multiple years to really get a shot. And a team should not be eligible to get 2 number 1 picks in 3 years either which would take Detroit and Orlando out.

Bottom line, the Rockets don't have much of a chance to get him, have a really good young core, and I think this season you just let them play and grow and develop, but don't force them to lose unless it's towards the end of season and you have some injuries you can capitalize on.

 

I don’t want to hinder the young fellas development

I want best lineups and trying to compete

I also don’t want to waste another year to not get a top 2 pick

 

There is also a middle ground this year of expecting other teams to play significantly worse lineups than lineups with Jalen and Jabari early. I don't want Rockets to trade for vets or hold onto vets. I don't care about squeezing 5 extra wins out of this squad. I don't expect the Rockets to be on the treadmill of mediocrity if they try to develop their young players, but I would not consider it tanking (well at least to the same magnitude as I expect other teams to do).

At most, the Rockets will tank when Green and Smith are on the bench. I don't expect this to be as "detrimental" to wins as it was at the end of last season. Rockets should end up in the bottom 6-8 range if they play Green and Smith a lot (Thinking 25-28 wins). I'm not sure playing Gordon until trade deadline changes that.

I do not want to waste a year of develop of Green and Smith. If they are bad, it will work like tanking and Rockets have a shot at the bottom 3. If the Rockets are good, the development was likely worth losing a little lottery odds.

On a side note, if Tari Eason has a great rookie season, it may be a lot more "detrimental" to the tanking movement than someone like Gordon.

 

The Rockets coaches are pro-win within the confines of playing time/rotation directives from the front office (e.g., maybe more rest days for Gordon, who is played and how often in the second unit).

 

I think this topic is way overblown. This team is super young, so they just need to go play ball. Silas is coaching for his job possibly, and the players the want us to draft a guy to replace them. Enjoy the season, it’s gonna be exciting

 

Everyone seems to think of this as black and white, either you tank or you go for the play-in. You're on Team Tank and you care more about rebuilding, or you want to win as many games as possible and tanking seems absurd to you.

I think there's probably more of a gray area this season. There's a ton of young talent, and you want to see guys perform well and the team to perform better as a whole, but we can all acknowledge that this team is crazy young and inexperienced. The kids have the keys to the franchise. They're going to lose some games, and they didn't become a 50-win squad overnight.

And unlike the last two years, there aren't a ton of veterans on this team they could feasibly dump to "tank" at the deadline. Even if they deal Gordon, he's the only real veteran in the rotation right now, so that's not really tanking. The only way they could truly tank is to rest starters down the stretch, which they could feasibly do to improve their draft odds.

But either this team is going to be a bottom five squad vying for a top 2 pick again or it won't. And even if it's not, they're probably still in the bottom 10 with decent odds at a good pick. So to answer the question everyone's been arguing all offseason, I don't really support either side here. I just want to see the team prioritize the development of its young players first, and if you have a chance at a bottom five record OR to make the play-in later in the season, you decide then. But two preaseason games or some Wemby highlight videos shouldn't be enough to make that call right now.

 

7’4’’ player will have feet issue. They ALWAYS do. Why, he is going to have add weight and muscle to survive in the NBA. It is the extra weight that will hurt him. Name a 7’3’’ player that didn’t have injury issues with his knees or feet. 7’1’’ seems to be the cutoff to not have those issues.

 

You are not going to out-tank OKC. The lottery is a crap shoot in the top 5 now.

 

I’m honestly hoping the Spurs get Victor because I believe we’ll when 30 games

 

No telling how many teams have already decided to tank. Even with that possibility. I highly doubt that Stone AND more importantly TF have not already made it clear to the staff that drafting VW is the main priority. Along with probably 10 other FO's. One exec said after witnessing his game in Vegas that if it was allowed, they would trade 10 1st round picks for him. He's that good.

 

This has been my take. To get to the bottom, both Jalen and Jabari, as well as some other key guys will have to underperform. And that's NOT a good thing. It means they are not as good as we hope. And what do we get? A 14% (or worse if not worst 3) chance of getting Wemby.

 

And that exec would be an idiot. There is ALWAYS a once-in-a-lifetime prospect. Zion Williamson was an OIAG talent. How's that gone? You play your games and the let the chips fall. You don't tank on purpose for 1 player. If there were multiple great players, fine.

 

Were the rockets idiots for doing that for hakeem? Were the spurs idiots for duncan?

 

The rules were different back then. These days you can tank and still not get anyone you wanted. The Rockets tanked twice and never ended up with the #1 pick. Since the Rockets have quite a bit of young talent now, it makes more sense to try and win as much as possible.

 

Kareem was 7'2 and had unprecedently long and durable career.

 

7'2' is the ceiling. He is the ONLY one i can think of that was 7'2'' and didn't have injury issues. Many more players were 7'1'' with great careers.

 

Different times. Worst record=#1 overall pick. Rockets had the worst record and got the #3 pick. 2021 - worst record, #2 overall pick. You are not assured #1 overall anymore.

 

Neither of those teams were assured the first pick, they both got lucky. Odds were better but it wasn’t like football where worse record = first pick

 

If the question was 50 wins vs tanking I could understand trying to win, but that’s not the question. We’re talking about 28 wins vs 22 wins. Why lower your odds for a few meaningless wins?

 

Why harm the development of your young players for the 7th pick instead of the 14th pick? The current team has too much talent and too many teams are outright tanking for the Rockets to end up with a bottom 3 record no matter what. You might as well try to win rather than teaching your core players to be losers. Attempt to take advantage of everyone tanking and try to make the play in. You still might not make it, but the Rockets have a better shot at the play in than the worst record.

On top of that, the Rockets have tanked 2 years in a row, gotten the worst record, and still never gotten the top pick. The odds of ending up with Victor are simply too low to sabotage your team.