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If Posey is let go, no trade for a forward would be a killer

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Desert Scar, Jul 26, 2003.

  1. Yetti

    Yetti Member

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    I think of Pike as a shooting Guard more than him being a Small Forward. So I would think of him being Mobleys back up! I just cant imagin him playing in a position to be guarding Small Forwards...
     
  2. shaylishya

    shaylishya Member

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    I wanna keep Posey too! Let's just hope for a miracle. And is it possible for the Rockets to get him back just with a trade? :confused:

    ~*~*~*Hope Posey would once again join da Rockets*~*~*~
     
  3. Wakko67

    Wakko67 Member

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    Posey must be kept.

    He's no all-star and his numbers may be comparable to Pike's, but it's not about the numbers in my opinion. Posey fit with this team. He had good chemistry and did everything we needed. He was one the few, if any, who moved without the ball. He vastly improved our fast break (at times he made Steve look incredible ;) ). His one on one defense was definately a plus especially when Cat was playing good D as well. On top of all that he has more years in him than Pike.

    He's not demanding a lot considering he is a starter in this league. Also money shouldn't be that much of an issue considering what Yao will bring in and other things like the Toyota deal. The Rockets always seemed like their emphasis was on winning, but I have to question that now.

    Like I said Posey is no All-Star, but he's just the sort of foundation this team needs. In a perfect scenario (at least one that's available), we would resign Posey and use Pike as a relief for Cat.

    I guess we'll see what happens. I only hope for the best. :confused:
     
  4. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Memphis contract I am pretty sure is 22.5 million at the max. They are over the cap and can only offer the MCE. It should be like 4.7, 5.3, 5.9 and 6.6 over those 4 years at a maximum, thus you have to base Posey's 4.7 this year versus others contract THIS year which will similarly escalate. Posey and Harpring's thus should be very close.

    4.7 million for Posey is not bad, and a 4 year contract is not bad. There is no question Posey was our 4th best player last year.
     
  5. canoner2002

    canoner2002 Contributing Member

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    you have to start with 4.9 mil not 4.7 mil, and it is about $24 mil for 4 years.

    Haven't you realized that the decision has been made that we are not going to match memphis offer?

    I am glad we are not matching. We are not serious contender in 2 or 3 years, and there is no need to go over cap now. When Yao signs his 2nd contract and we get rid of bad contracts of Tylor, Moochie, Cato, and when we become serious contender, it is worth to pay lux tax. Les is a business man, and you cannot expect him to pay lux tax for a lot of years. If he pays now, he will be less willing to pay later when we really need him to pay. Posey is not worth average $6 mil a year and he is not the make-or-break type player to any team. Where Rox goes depends on the development of Yao and SF, and which another star player we add once we have the money. The way you guys suggests, we will never have money to acquire a star player.
     
  6. jodete

    jodete Member

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    The reality is Rockets won't match the Grizzlies offer. And I think he will go out without sign and trade. So Van Gundy knows this team need some small forward. He didn't want Rice in NY (remember he wanted the Shandon - RIce trade, mmm he could make that again now in Houston) so now with more years... He will be traded, I think. I don't know if some team want Rice. THe good thing is he's free agent next year, and that could change the opinion of some team.
    He´s veteran and with shot. That's liked for very teams. Spurs could want RIce and they have money...
    Van Gundy used Larry jhonson in NYC in this position. T Mo is a player like Mr. L in some things. A SF - PF with rebound, post presence, defense, and three point shot. He will sign someone sure. I don't know who, but sure he wants a small forward different at Rice or BOki (I think Boki is not the favourite of Jeff :mad: .:()
     
  7. cloudnine

    cloudnine Member

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    I am going to set up a vaseline stand for all the knee-jerking that goes on around here.

    With those millions i will buy the rockets and you guys will then have a true "insider".
     
  8. Yodels

    Yodels Member

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    We have Yao and Steve. They are our designated stars. Because they are vulnerable defensively, I believe our 2,3,&4 should be above average defensive players. Cat,Posey, & Griffin fit that bill. If that unit was given a chance to grow, I really think they can do something... On the offensive end either our 2 or 3 needs to be a dead eye shooter. Both Cat & Pose are streaky there but not bad ...the best thing I like about Posey is his willingness to blend...Sometimes I wish Cat could do the same...

    Considering all 3s:
    Defense--Posey does not take back seat to anyone in the NBA
    Transition--Posey does not take a back seat to anyone in the NBA
    Heart--Posey does not take a back seat to anyone in the NBA

    Offense is so sexy that people look at that when evaluating talent...And even in that category Posey is not that bad. We've seen him drain 3s all last year with the Rockets. We've seen him make cuts to the basket in the halfcourt set. He's willing to give up the ball. & the #1 thing I want each player to do more of is to be effective without the ball, & Posey does just that.

    The more I think about it, Posey is pretty sweet. What will we do?
     
  9. canoner2002

    canoner2002 Contributing Member

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    For all who praise Posey for his heart, I remind you that he was playing for a new contract. A lot of players play their best the year their old contract expire. Once these guys get a fat contract, they become lazy, soft, or undisplined. Talent worth more than heart. JVG can mold some hearts, but he cannot give you talent. Therefore it is stupid to pay a fortune for a heart that might be set to win a fat contract. I can guranteed you that Posey will not play as well next year as he did with Rox.
     
  10. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    DS,

    You keep using the first year salary to judge Posey's contract. But if you don't pay him that high at the first year, you are going to balloon the payment at the latter part of the contract. You keep saying that Posey is worth the 4.7, is he worth the 6.6 in the last year (assuming your 22.5 congesture is true, while every source we see says 24)?

    Everybody always uses the average yearly to judge contracts. To consider only the first year price is just not painting the right picture.
     
  11. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    Up until a week ago, the MLE would've been considered fair and very doable by the front office to re-up Posey. And we heard earlier in the summer that Les would not have a problem w/ the luxury tax if it meant improving the team. Then all of a sudden we get this breaking news (basically spread by Feigen) that using the MLE will put us in luxury tax territory. The luxury tax numbers are not even set yet. IMO, this all smells like a bunch of BS. There is something else up. Either JVG saw the tape and decided he didn't need Posey or we are trying to acquire another SF via trade. History has proven we can never believe what the front office says during the offseason. Two summers ago they told us for weeks and weeks that Shandn Andersn was gonna retire a Rocket, too.
     
  12. Panda

    Panda Member

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    Good point. Pimpen. Some good points on both camps, too.

    The front office knows things we don't. They might have other plans that forbid matching. Plus, in the long term we are better off not to add more overpriced players to our lineup. Can't let clutchcity become players ATM. If a player wants more than what he's worth, screw him! Let the other unrealistic teams add dead weight to their cap management. Look at the Lakers and Spurs, their cap situation is well structured, ain't no one on their roster is as blatantly overpriced as the Rockets and some other teams. And they won championships! Spend the major money on superstars and the leftovers on role players is the formula to win in today's NBA. It's like building a car with a Mercedez engine, a Volvo frame and Hyundai subparts. A Hyundai part like Posey ain't worth anything in Mercedez or Volvo's range. Let him go and rot in Memphis. Bye bye Posey, sorry to say I ain't gonna miss ya.
     
  13. WinkFan

    WinkFan Member

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    Frankly, Horry and Elie were a hell of a lot better than the guys we have now (MoT, Eddie, Rice, Boki). Horry and Elie were great defenders, while we don't have an average defender in the bunch if Posey is gone.
     
  14. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Have you heard JVG, Dawson or Les say positively this is true?

    I agree we are not serious contenders, so then why does paying 3 million next year to a 32 year old smarter than a 4.9 million to a 26 year old. Posey has a chance to grow with Yao and Steve--Pike does not. I do like the Pike signing--but he just isn't a long term building block. Why should Les even bother to sign Pike and just save even more money if we are just trying to build 3-4-5 years down the line--but losing one of your 4 best players who also happens to be 26 and happens to have a good work ethic for a very reasonable league wide salary for a starting forward just doesn't show long term committment--unless their are even bigger fish in the fryier.

    Of course we should use the first year, assuming that is the top end of 4.9 for next year. All substantive NBA contracts increase 10 to 12% per year, and the salary cap and luxury cap increase too. Thus in make most sense to what Posey would be due next year versus other players next year--they all escalate.

    And as far as "everyone" having 24 million, I have not heard a justification, and the Memphis paper initially said like 15 million which clearly wasn't accurate. I could be wrong, but the max salary should be 4.9+5.4+5.9+6.5 or 22.7 million. But whether I am missing something, and it really is 24 million, so be it, that 1.3 million over 4 years should not make the difference.
     
  15. canoner2002

    canoner2002 Contributing Member

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    This is not difference between 4.9 mil and 3 mil. As pointed out many times, signing Posey means paying extra lux tax, and signing Pike and staying under cap means receiving lux tax money. Overall it could be as much as $5 mil a year.
     
  16. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    A) we are not sure what the luxury tax will be so whether the 3 mil versus 4.9 makes a difference is a big unknown

    B) if all we had to is drop 1.7 million difference between Pike and Posey were better off with the much younger Posey and trading Rice, MoT or Cato for a cheaper player, with the 15% rule we can pretty much do this with Rice and a team even over the cap looking for an expiring contract. IF this 1.9 million difference is what is holding us back there are so many other ways to explore well worth it if it enables us to keep our 4th best player and best forward who happens to be the right age for the coree of the team. Otherwise we should have taken Pike's 3 million and either saved that money too or taken a flyer on a 22-23-24 year old with potential even if we don't know what we will get from them the next year or two.

    In sum in no shape or form does Pike provide the key elements of what Posey does now (along with our back-up 5 the other non guard to rebound well for his position and one of our best defenders) nor like Posey can he grow with Steve/Yao over time. Pike is real nice to have for the next 3 years and gives trade flexibility in the short term (Rice, Mobley)--but just doesn't fit in the long term plan if that is our focus.

    Finally, I guess mum has been the word from JVG, Dawson or Les--I would bet more than a 50/50 chance signing Pike is not the last move of the offseason that could impact our starting 5. Could be wrong--but that is what I would bet (match Posey, or major other move). Otherwise this is a tremendously demoralizing offseason for Rocket fans.
     
  17. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Desert Scar,

    You bring up some good points. I pretty much agree with all of them. Losing Posey will hurt the team only in that the Rice/Nachbar + Griffin/Taylor forward combos are all pretty soft at this time. There is not "grit" in there that this team needs and that is something Posey brought to the team. Good JVG "Team Defense" might cover up some of our shortcomings but in the long run we just need better players or those players (Nachbar & Griffin) have to improve.

    I think Hawkins can do a lot of things that Posey can do but by no means is Posey replaceable via Hawkins. Just a stop gap measure.

    I personally believe that Posey at the MLE is fine (especially at only 4 years). I think that is his worth. The only problem is that the Rockets dont want to go over the Luxary Tax and can't get the deal done because of it. Otherwise Posey's worth at the MLE is fine. If Moochie's 3 million a year contract was not on the books Posey would have been resigned for sure.

    I truely believe the Rockets WOULD go over the Luxary Tax threshold IF the player they were bringing in would be the "3rd Star Player" this team is looking for. In other words a difference maker type player, someone that will propel the team to the next level. But I don't see the Rockets going over the LT level for just a ROLE PLAYER which is exactly what Posey is.

    Bottom line is either we see significant player improvement on the front line or we have to make a trade. I would really like to see what Griffin brings to the table this year with JVG. If he ever is going to show signs of improving, this is the year to do it. I am expecting aaround a 10-10 year from him comperable to what Troy Murphy at Golden State did last year.
     
  18. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Unless you are Les, JVG or Dawson, sleeping with them, OR have their housed bugged, I think you should not be totally confident either way with what we do. I am certainly not confident about it, but my hunch is we drag Memphis along for being a thorn and then match.
     
    #38 Desert Scar, Jul 27, 2003
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2003
  19. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Deuce, well thought out post. I only have a minor contention. This is that when building a team you do need to protect your quality or potentially quality role players. If we can find the 3rd star great, but we have 2 superstars (or potential) in Yao/Francis and a very good 3rd scorer Mobley, now we need our 1st tier role players like Christie, Fox, a young Horry, young Bryan Russell, Mario Elie, Sean Elliot, etc, that are anything but a dime a dozen--I see Posey like this (doesn't have the talent of Elliot--but as much as the others). Also, guys like Chrsite, Elie, Russell and Bruce Bowen kept on improving their shot form, shot selection and confidence through approaching 30--with his work ethic I see Posey only getting more well rounded as an excellent role player. I actually think you have to try hard to acquire well rounded guys like this that provide a lot of intangibles (Elie, Christie, Fox, Russell, Horry, Elliott)--to have one on your team already and let him go for a market value or below contract w/o getting compensation just seems goinjg backwards.
     
  20. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I understand contracts escalate. But tell me one instance when people evaluate contract by looking just at the first year pay rather than looking at the average yearly pay.

    When you are talking about the market value of a player, you have to use the standard everyone uses. Otherwise you are comparing apple with orange.
     

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