If china attacks Taiwan, what do you think America will do ?

FF, You had only two facts to back you up on your claim, one, China has internet censorship, two, only the minority of the population has internet access, then you pulled the conclusion out of your behind that any one in China with internet access must be shills for the Chinese government in order to slant the position of all Chinese posters on this board based on those inadequate facts, which, although revelant, not conclusional in any stretch. FF, You are the one that tries to lable people through logical inference without sufficient facts to back it up. You failed miserably and fell flat on your face.

Reading my comments make you feel I'm shilling for the government? Why don't you elaborate on that? Oh I get it, you are pulling things out of your a$$ once again.

Reading you comments make me understand that why Macarthysm was in place because people like you exist on this planet, who uses stereotypes and logical inference to frame people. This is the new millenium. Not the 50's. Wake up and stop being backward and stop glorify your opinion by calling other posters backward.

You said that you loved the 1970's Taiwan, which was under Chiang's totalitarian ruling, using your frog leaping logic, that means you are a supporter of dictatorship. How about the taste
of your feet in your mouth?

If you wanna argue, argue. If you can't argue, then shut up and walk away. Don't resort to Macarthysm to make your case.

 

thanks Chairman Mao

I thought you were dead.

 

This is getting way beyond childish. Joseph Jr. Macarthy.

 

Panda, arguing with you is pointless. You sing the party line consistently, you don't consider any other viewpoint, and you have a view of China that is quaint but myopic. You are short tempered, rude, and offensive. You should be happy I'm even talking to you. Most don't bother for the aforesaid reasons.


When it comes to an ability to thoughtfully analyze issues, you're a regular CHARLIE McCarthy.

 

You see, this is what worries me about China. Here I go and post plausible scenarios that all result in China's destruction, and they don't even bother reading them... (J/K)) ...

Their total inability to see the realities staring them in their faces has baffled me for years. Any war they got into with the US that was not quickly contained would almost certainly result in their *total* destruction, while at best they could only severely damage - but not destroy - the US. And yet they persist in engaging in fantasy strategising about invading that pissant little rogue province... Absolutely baffling.

It ain't worth it, guys. Quit dreaming, because the US will come to Taiwan's aid. Every and any US President would abide by that promise. Don't delude yourselves otherwise.

 

I told him that 8 pages ago. The US would nuke China over Taiwan. End of story.

 

More accurately, the PRC would try to nuke the US for intervening on Taiwan's behalf, because they have nothing that could defeat a CVBG, and then we would nuke them back, but... Same result.

These guys just don't listen.

 

What party lines? That Taiwan is part of China? that Chinese people should have a say in Taiwan because nearly all countries in the world acknowledge that Taiwan is their land? That there is no internet censorhip when it comes to applying for internet access in China? Oh yeah I say Taiwan is part of China when the world says so, I guess the world is also following the party lines. HEHE.

As for being short tempered, rude, and offensive, it called an eye for an eye. Take the heat if you want to insult others first and bear the consequences instead of whine like a baby.

About my view on China, of course it looks like quaint and myopic to you. Everything is quaint and myopic in rose colored glasses.

Yes I'm glad you are talking to me, the more you talk, the worse you look, and don't feel bad when I ask you to stop, out of a sense of avoiding more posts derogative to the quality of this thread.

And Joe Macarthy can kiss Charlie MaCarthy's a$$.

 

Originally posted by Friendly Fan:
"I am supremely confident that China will not do anything stupid regarding Taiwan, so this discussion is academic. Will the US do something stupid if China uses force? Absolutely. "

Yeah, the US is really stupid.

Are ya getting senile or self contradiction is your usual trait? or do you really think that US is stupid?

 

In the immortal words of urgh..Spacecity maybe:

Thanks for your input, Rambo!

 

P-dandy

I said a lot of things, one which was that the US would be at war with China if China took military action against Taiwan.

I also said I didn't think that would happen.

 

I'd like to concur. America WILL come to Taiwan's aid. Too much at stake not to.

But they won't have to, because the Chinese leadership know this, and so they won't make their move unless they were REALLY REALLY desperate. The CCP cadre sit pretty, make billions off corruption and graft stemming from their power, send their kids abroad and generally live it up. Why in the world would they ever put all that at stake? If they fight, they will lose. And if they lose the war, they'll lose EVERYTHING.

Thank god for materialism! It is only evil which can crush the power of Chinese ultranationalism. (and Taiwanese nationalism for what it's worth)...

To me, only the imminent demise of the Chinese Communist Party due to internal rebellion, or the subsequent rise of a new Chinese demogogue/military dictator seeking popular support, can bring about this armageddon scenario. And really no one in the world would like to see this.

The ideal situation in China is with a silent, peaceful revolution in the transition to democracy like the one they had in Taiwan under Lee Teng-Hui. But miracles like that don't happen so very often... So we'd all have to live with this fear for another good 40 years.

 

лÌìлµØ, my words and questions did work as you replied my post.

it is a bbs here, isn't it? when i siad your articles picked up from anywhere have neen really boring it is because we are waiting for your own words.

i said you have looked like a red guard in cultral revelution and i guess you could have been a red guard. i'm sorry for that.

as you know i 'm 7 yrs in 1979. i grew up after cultral revelution.
i don't like the govenment now but l wouldn't say l cannot support it because it is THE only govenment of mine which speaks for 13 billion chinese now. which govenment that speaks for 13 billion chinese you can support? CR? USA? or JAPAN?

BTW, how could you support the people of china when you said you would never speake any dialect of chinese? you may not be welcome to join any chinese group. and if you want more chinese people to support your opinion ,you must begin to learn any dialect of chinese.

 

actually, i do find your arguments not pandas' compelling. but to me, Lil and mr. peterson look more like shrills of mr.li deng huiand FBI than you.

why China is so far behind the rest of the modern world?
why do you always need my help?

because in this case,size do really matter. there are half million taiwan people to work or live in shanghai today. and shanghai is a more magic and modern city than any city of taiwan now. i doubt your children could use chinese well enough when China would be so far before the rest of the western world.

btw,answer my questions,tell me why? you must be a good student of chairman mao because you always
µÐ½øÎÒÍË£¬µÐÆ£ÎÒÈÅ¡£

 

panda, how did you spend the mid -autumn festival?

 

even if the war breaks out, it's not necessarily a nuclear war unless US nukes China first. i think it's going to be a long conventional war with no winner in the end like Korean and Vienam. but we all agree it's not likely to happen since Taiwan simply doesn't have the balls to go independent which is the assumption under which the war will break out. so these's absolutely no need to live with fear.

 

The odds of the US nuking China first in any war scenario are about as great as the odds of Botswana putting a man on the moon by the end of the year. We would send a couple of carrier groups to the area around the Taiwan Straits to prevent any amphibious invasion, and our air from S. Korea and Japan, along with naval/carrier-based assets would beat the crap out of the PLAAF. We would have no need whatsoever to use nukes.

The Chinese, on the other hand, would have no way to defeat a carrier group short of throwing nukes at it (forget about their subs, as we are already tracking their half-decent ones at all times anyway - they're dead the second we start shooting). They would quickly realize that unless they nuked our carriers, their invasion plans would be in the crapper, and would likely throw nukes at them. This would obviously escalate the situation, although I do not think to the point where we would use nukes against the mainland.

What would prompt that would be China's realization that even removing a carrier or two wouldn't save their invasion plans; they would have to completely knock the US out of the war, and they could only achieve that goal by nuking an American city. Probably either Hawaii or LA. Obviously - at least, to any American it is obvious - that we would respond in kind, and the game is over then. Unfortunately, the PLA leadership sees things differently...

In 2000 I think a report from the PLA high command leaked out indicating that their planning included just such attacks against US territory. This is not Tom Clancy here, this is their actual war plan - nuking the US. In their analysis, if they nuked an American city, we would be so terrified that we would come to the conclusion that it was not worth it, and we would back out of the war. (This was after 8 years of dealing with Bill Clinton, keep in mind). Now, to any American this is an obviously flawed assumption - of course we would strike back. We would totally annihilate China if they started nuking American cities, and we know it. Unfortunately, they do not seem to believe that we would actually do it...

All terrible wars have great miscalculations at their heart. I can only hope that the PLA planners have rethought their assumptions, because it is just those faulty assumptions which I fear might someday bring about such a war.

 

I don't see the PRC using nukes in any war scenario. That would be lunacy, especially when we get this missile shield operational.
I saw that the PRC issued this press release and it made me laugh.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2003-09/11/content_1076710.htm
Sure....all that stuff you're buying from the Russians is simply for the defense of China. From what, us?
Read my earlier post on what they've done so far, all designed to cover an invasion by preventing our CVBGs from intervening. They're even building something similar to our Arleigh Burke destroyers and Tico cruisers with the Aegis SPY radar to defend their anti-ship missile carrying ships from air attack.

And this is a Sovernmenyy class destroyer, of which the Chinese bought four from Russia. They carry the sea-skimming Mach 2.5 3M80E/Sunburn missile, which is very hard missile to kill and has a range of 160km. When it goes into the terminal phase, it accelerates to Mach 4, making it almost impossible to kill. It is specifically designed to destroy carriers in the Cold War Soviet context, but now, could be used against us if they decide to take Taiwan by force.





You can see the Sunburn canisters alongside the bridge and that will give you an idea of how big these missiles really are. You don't buy warships like this without having some kind of aggressive purpose, either by using them or the threat of using them.

Read this from Chinese Defence Today about the Sunburn missile:

 

true the sunburns are designed to defeat Aegis and sink carriers.
but the chinese are doing far more than just that... i'll just give a couple of examples (drawn from pentagon/senate reports, janes, etc.).

their licensed production of HUNDREDS of su-27s and acquisition of su-31s, together with the most advanced radars and missiles, is DESIGNED to defeat the US air elements based in Okinawa. They can already totally dominate the F-15s we have there now. (Hence the first deployment of the F-22s will be, you guessed it, Western Pacific!)...

their fitting of Israeli Python 3/4s and Russians AA-10/11s on their older planes plus the avionics upgrades and Russian AWACs acquisition will serve to significantly increase the capabilities of its second-line fighters, raising them to the level of Taiwanese F-16s and Mirages and negating much of the qualitative edge Taiwan and the US has in training.

Their acquisition of ultra-long range Russian AA missiles are designed take out US And Taiwanese Airborne Early Warning (AWACS).

Their acquisition of improved Kilo subs are designed to lurk at the entrance of the Taiwan Strait, where their stationary position (waiting for the CVBG to arrive) makes them nearly impossible to detect. Of course once they shoot they're dead, but they can take out a couple of ships before they go down.

Their new fighter-bomber (derived from the demantled Israeli Lavi program - effectively a super-F-16) is designed to get within range of CVBGs and deliver anti-ship ordance before an effective air response can take place.

Their acquisition of Russian anti-satellite missiles are designed to take out US space surveillance assets, which they track already.

Their design for many of their nuclear missiles have EXACTLY the range necessary to hit the west coast of CONUS and hence deter a US nuclear attack.

Their active pursuit of nuke-derivative electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) weapons (a la Goldeneye and Matrix), a weapon capable of taking out a CVBG, but not necessarily considered a nuke in terms of death tolls...

Oh, and did i mention the hacker "army" they've assembled to mount an attack on the information infrastructure of the U.S. govt in event of a war?

i think in the last few years, the pentagon and the senate committees have issued increasingly shrill warnings in reports about the extent and intentions of the Chinese arms build-up. it is devoted to one thing - to achieve local superiority off the coast of China against none other than the U.S. and to inflict disruptive, if not crippling, damage against a U.S. CVBG.

But all this.... for what?

They really ought to spend that money on helping some of their poorest people. Getting 100 million unemployed people off the streets sounds a lot more important than killing Americans or Taiwanese...

It's a no-win situation. They've developed all this weaponry, but they've missed the most important thing, getting their troops to Taiwan. They haven't got any amphibious assault capabilities worth mentioning! Do they expect Taiwanese leaders to just capitulate after they lob a couple of missiles? Or do they actually expect Taiwanese people to rise up against their own democratic govt and say "Oh beloved liberators, we'd love to join your repressive dictatorship!" LOL!

And if they cannot take Taiwan by force, and Taiwan sure as hell isn't going to submit without force, then why must they prepare for conflict against the U.S.? It's like in chess, they make a ton of moves and sacrifice a ton of pieces, knowing full well they ain't going to get a checkmate anyway. Wasting valuable resources better spent on its own people and what's more, giving them a ton of bad karma here in the U.S...

What they should be fostering is good relations with Taiwan and more importantly, good will amongst the Taiwanese. If they go the benevolent route, i believe they can achieve an EU-styled union within 15 years. at the current rate, i'd be surprised if they make any progress in 20 years time...

Why do they choose to fight the U.S. on its own terms (in a traditional war)? The U.S. can get better weapons any time we want. All we need to do is just turn on our awesome military-industrial complex... The Chinese ought to think asymmetrically. They're Chinese. Taiwanese are Chinese. Americans are not (at least mostly...). Use it to their advantage! Charm us! Woo us! Give us what we want (international recognition for example)! And in the end, they'll win us over as an ally simply because we're so close culturally, economically, and geographically. I bet most Taiwanese would rather be friends with a benevolent China and not pay billions to America every year as "protection fee". But then again, the Chinese have their problems too. They too have a military-industrial complex to feed. And if they don't have Taiwan as an enemy, where else are those big-shot Chinese generals going to find such a convenient excuse to line their own pockets?

 

just to add a little fuel to the fire...
this was reported in the Ming Daily (based in HK).

after legislating to control internet content to prevent "harm to national security", now they're moving to control...

TEXT MESSAGING!

apparently, they figured cell phones can be used to propagate seditious ideas... oh no! Dalai Lama quotes arriving by text! Christian music ring tones! Can't have that now, can we?