Of course it's speculative, any and all projections are speculative and therefore subjective. You can call my views simplistic if you want and they might be. Point I was making is that Barnes at the very least has the tools to be a great defender while Sengun doesn't. I've said it before, but when it comes to physical traits Sengun is very, very mid. It's nice that you bring up Giannis, Embiid, and Jokic because a big part of why I'm unconvinced about Sengun becoming a franchise type superstar is because he lacks any sort of elite physical trait. Giannis basically has the physique of a demigod, Embiid is easily in the top 1% in combination of mobility and size, and Jokic is easily in the top 1% with his mass. On top of the, the latter 2 have reliable shots. Meanwhile, Sengun is on the struggle bus from the charity stripe where no one is guarding him. Which for a player like him and in the current era of spacing, both are incredibly valuable traits for both the player and his team. Saying "the only things... is better" is hugely understating how important that is in today's NBA.
You are talking about traits. I am talking about objective data. I think the latter is a more reliable information to judge a player. I mean, look at Jalen Green. He has all the physical tools to be a superstar. Look at Luka Doncic, he is just a fat dude. Which one is better? BTW, Barnes's 3pt shooting was terrible in his first two seasons. Why can't Sengun improve?
When a player is young, I look at traits and trends more than their stats. What are their potential weapons? How are they improving and how are they not? How are their bodies maturing? Green’s biggest weakness that I see right now is that he’s not mentally tough or that at the very least, he lacks mental endurance. Can he overcome it? Maybe, maybe not. Why do I think Barnes will improve his long ball while staying much less convinced about Sengun? Easy, FTs. Barnes has trended towards continued improvement and Sengun has been consistently less than desirable at something that should have amounted to free points.
So you think Jalen's new deal is gonna be less than 7M a year? Wanna have a 100 usd tip jar bet Jalen's new deal is gone a be more than 7M a year? Kispert is only a 3 not a D, he doesn't rebound and he doesn't assist either, it's very telling a on a wizards team that needs shooters that most he gets only 22 mins a night. He is also already 24 and has 0 potential left. Jalen is only 21, the only issue with him is his shooting if he somehow fixes that he suddenly becomes one of the top rookies of his class.
They are all young only 21 yr old. Mobley was a lot better than Barnes starting out but Barnes and Sengun outpace Mobley due to their hard work.
Statistically, they trade blows in various categories. Points: Sengun Rebounds: Sengun Assists: Barnes TO: Sengun Steals: Barnes Blocks: Barnes FG%: Sengun 3P% Barnes FT%: Barnes TS%: Sengun ORtg: Barnes DRtg: Sengun They seem very close in current production. Sengun is a year younger, but I think most NBA people would say Barnes has better raw physical tools as compared to others who play his position(s). I think that positional value would probably be the deciding factor were a redraft held today, in favor of Barnes--for most teams. (It might depend on who landed the pick because they're pretty close.)
I never said Sengun couldn't improve, only that Sengun hasn't show me much that gives me hope his shooting will improve. He still has a lot of time to prove me wrong and I hope to be proven wrong.
Jalen is 22. I said Ayo's next deal probably beats Jalen since he looks like he's outperforming his current deal at the moment and he'll be in a better position to negotiate the next one not being a second round pick in RFA that was making 1.5 million. I have no idea what Jalen's next deal is going to look like. Say Jalen's trajectory continues linearly like it has this year, so gradual improvement in all areas other than scoring/efficiency which still doesn't really improve. I'm landing on 3/30 with year 3 as a team option (adjusted to whatever the equivalent of that will be under the new cap) but that seems simultaneously too high and too low. The bust-y high pick but maybe still some hope for potential second contracts are usually pretty low. Like a year or two at less than the midlevel more often than not. The Pistons were kind of encouraged with Bagley after trading for him and he got 3/37 then they needed to attach assets to dump it less than a year later.
He nails his 4th year Maxey style is the only way for Green to go.....anything else and he is just not getting the deal his agent would have wanted. This Beta chick guy truly.
That's not a good comparison then since you are comparing Ayos 2nd deal to Jalen's first deal right? 30/3 is still higher than Dosumu's deal which immediately proves you wrong.
I said Ayo's next deal, i.e. not the deal he's on right now. It's not apples to apples. If he was a first round pick on rookie scale he'd be coming up for RFA in a year and a half. Not looking to get some security in RFA after being in the league for two years and having made $2 million. In any event I'm really not that invested in Ayo and Kispert. Their advanced numbers are comparable to or better than Jalen's and when I've seen them play I see how I think they can work more long term in the NBA. If I watched them anywhere close to as much as I've watched Jalen my opinion might be different. Like I noted earlier, I think Jalen was 19th on my re-draft list but if you want to bump him up to 13th I'm not going to really argue you are wrong. I'm 100% taking guys like Reaves, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy over Jalen, though. I simply don't think Jalen is anywhere close to a good player, which the numbers back up, and don't think it's going to ever come together for a multitude of reasons. I get the theoretical version of Jalen that could be great and exactly what the Rockets need but don't see it happening.
Barnes and Sengun are close and I can see that going either way. Anyone acting like it's not close is either heavily overrating or underrating one of these two. It is definitely close. I lean towards Barnes but I don't feel strongly about it. Side note, I'm surprised so many people are still so high on Mobley.
I'm in the same boat on the first statement. I think it's pretty close between Barnes and Sengun. I've got Barnes slightly ahead but it's close. If you asked me in December I probably would have said Alpe. I'm still a Mobley fan. He kind of fell off the radar, especially after being out, and his progress stalled a bit but since he's come back this season the Cavs have continued to roll winning 9 of 10 with the only L a 2 point loss against Philly. He's been playing well and is 8 of 13 from 3 in his last 7 games. You don't want to get too carried away on such low volume but his form is looking respectable and if that's real to where he can hit ~35-40% on 2 or 3 pretty open catch and shoot attempts a game that raises him a level. Wouldn't shock me at all if he's back to #1 in this class going into the summer.
Did you know that Sengun shot 81% FT in Turkey the season before he came to the NBA? Did you know that Barnes's 62% FT in college? For some reasons, Barnes got better in the NBA (although it's still below league average). Sengun got worse in the NBA. I don't think it has anything to do with shooting touch or work ethics. Also, Sengun's midrange accuracy from 3'-16' is much better than Barnes. If you want to talk about MVP level big men's 3pt shooting, both Embiid and Jokic are below average 3pt shooters. They are just good enough to keep the defense honest. There's no reason to believe that Sengun can't do the same. The difference between a big man and a wing is that the big man can score more efficiently up close. The wing has to be very good at outside shooting to compensate for the deficiency at closer range. You are comparing two different types of players and prioritizing the categories that are more suitable for the wing. Why don't you compare rebounding and at rim rate, which are more suitable for a big man. If you did what I did and compare their overall production, you'd see that Sengun has a better overall offensive impact.
Pretty sure the Cavs run has more to do with Mitchell going super saiyan than anything Mobley has done. Hitting high percentage on low attempts don't really mean much let's talk when he taking 4-5 threes a game cuz that's the time he will have stretch benefit for his team.
I honestly don’t care what Sengun did in Turkey at this point. It’s been his 3rd year and I’ve seen no improvement. Meanwhile Barnes has improved. Both Jokic and Embiid shoot significantly better than Sengun from 3pt and FT. No one respects him from either locations. I am prioritizing those categories because I have said time and time again that if Sengun doesn’t establish respectable range, he will never become a superstar in my opinion. Has nothing to do with big vs wing. Never said Sengun didn’t have a bigger impact currently on offense. I have only said that I believe Barnes has a chance to end up as a 2 way superstar while I have doubts that Sengun would end up as a superstar.
Spida is their MVP no question. He should start getting serious league MVP consideration. They started this run with Mobley and Garland out. Still you can't discount that Mobley is playing well with a big role on a red hot team. 2-3 attempts per game on solid % is within range of Jokic and Embiid and is enough of a threat to not be able to overhelp off of and have to somewhat legitimately close out, especially considering that he makes good quick decisions with the ball. If you combine that with top tier lob threat, top ~5 defensive player, and making good decisions/limited mistakes and that's a top 20-30 player. If this recent shooting stretch is kind of real that's very attainable. To get to a top 10-15 player some combination of semi-legitimate post game, off the dribble creation, and/or good 3% on more contested and higher volume will need to come. There have been flashes but that's a more optimistic outcome so I wouldn't blame anyone for not buying that possibility.
