Lauri is an anomaly, what he's doing basically never happens. 99% of stars look like they will be a star by year 3
Most stars aren't part of the Process tank jobs, that's gonna set Jalen back some cuz nows the first time he is getting called out for poor play. As for stars that look like stars after Y3 off the top of my head Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Jamal Murray come to mind. Also Miles Bridges, Mikal Bridges, Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram. Jarrett Allen, the list goes on...most of these guys like Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ignram they play on really young teams with little organization and structure and then they break out in a new environment or with more discipline and accountability. We can never be sure but I'm hoping Jalen is the same.
Maxey blew up in his 4th Year now....in his 3rd Year he looked like a good player..... Jokic actually blew up in his 6th Year due to Covid.......he was very good in his 4th Year onwards. 3rd Year is a decent precursor but it is not exactly the Year the Scoring takes off for everyone though.
The core is Sengun-Brooks-FVV The age match is not perfect, but is not terrible. Both FVV and Brooks are under 30, they'll have a few more years of prime, where Sengun will be entering his. You'll be saying 12 games is not enough to say that, and you'll be right. But that's 12 games of serious basketball, they matter infinitely more than the 3 years of trash. So these 35-40 pages of discussion in this thread prior to the season is completely pointless. You can't figure out anything from the AAU experience. These 12 games is the only data that matters. Things may change as time goes on, but based on all information currently available to us the core is Sengun-FVV-Brooks
LOL, so we need to give this scrub another contract AND potentially let them be either almost or completely done with that second contract and into his 3rd contract before admitting he sucks? WOW.
Maxey was a positive player already in year 2, the Jokic stuff obviously doesn't warrant a reply as he was like 16% above league average TS his 2nd year. Not many guys still suck in year 3 and then develop. Has it happened? sure, but the odds are very very low
The Year 3 is just a clichee, that is what I wanted to say, but we advanced fans are beyond that clichee, or we at least should be. If we take Jalen Green, he looked absolutely horrible with fundamentals in Year 1 and Year 2 that it take a lot to change him now. No matter if that is Year 3 or Year 4.
Yes but they look like stars to the general NBA fan. It's not true that 99% of future stars look like max players to their own fan base by year 3. For example, NBA fans were much higher on Sengun than Rockets fans last season. We're in the era of reverse homerism i.e. grass is greener on the other side because I don't watch the other side with a microscope.
Are there examples of guys who looked terrible for 3 years and then developed outside of Lauri? Sengun improved from year 1 to year 2, then year 2 to year 3. Jalen has not
Even Jalen Green is not terrible....but yeah Manu Ginobili or guys like that ......1,2 or 3 time All Stars but not perennial ones. You would see some mediocre stats in Year 3......terrible players are definitely not making anything. Green is a good player in the making.....his problem is if he makes the jump to being great or not. He is not assertive or aggressive enough....and not consistent at all, not one part of his game.
I'm sure there's some but I'm not interested in that discussion. Just wanted to highlight that a teams own fan base is almost never 99% sure a 3rd year player will end up being worth the max. There's too much bias for that to happen.
I don’t like this is essentially his first year type of argument but still it kind of is and his development or the lack of it this year, or even half way through the season will carry more weight for me in evaluating his future.
I think you're confusing "breaking out" with "hitting their prime." There's a pretty big difference. Most players hit their prime, AKA their most productive years, their peak, around age 25-30ish. But the "breakout year" almost always happens much sooner than that. The breakout year is something like what we're seeing with Sengun right now -- he's playing great but that doesn't mean he's hit his prime or his peak yet.
We don't have to give a contract to anyone. Jalen is under contract for next year and RFA after that. You may think he'll turn out great in the future, or you may think he'll suck forever, that doesnt make any difference as to what should be done. You should let him hit RFA, and gather one more year of data, without risk of losing anything.
It's unfortunate but Murray kept getting injured right when he was supposed to break out and become a star. His first real showing of allstar potential was when he was trading 50 point games with Mitchell in the bubble playoffs. Then he got a major injury and was out 2 years and then last year came back and was ramping up till the playoffs where he was dominant and absolutely playing at a star level. Then this year starts and he's expected to make an allstar push them whoops injured again. Poor guy can't catch a break but the talent is definitely there.
As they say Health is Wealth so health also being a factor in all that making of a star.....but I would call him a star absolutely. Durability is underrated around here.
If you're not judging Jalen till he's 28, that requires giving him at least 1 more contract and probably 2.
Murray is a very good player in regular season and a star in the playoffs. If your playoff average is 25 ppg 6.3 assists (53 games) you are a star. That dude had only like 2 bad playoff games.
The only untouchable player on the roster is Sengun so he is the "the core" at the moment. FVV, Brooks, and Tari are the next level. Unfortunately we wasted the last few years on the worst coach in NBA history so it is too early to write off any of the other young guys. Bari is showing signs he may eventually become the 3&D player he was advertised to be. The big question mark ironically is the guy Clutch called the core in the OP. I doubt Green ever becomes a true star player but it is too early to write him off completely due to the utter incompetency of the previous staff. It is way too early to make any judgements on Amen and Cam.
His point is that we have him locked up for 2 years to evaluate whether we extend him or not. That is not 28, but it makes your argument sound better. For a while there, I thought you were going to turn the corner and be more objective, but the old troll in you is back. Too bad I know there’s a real fan in there somewhere.
