Well we better. Because we sure as hell ain't gonna win many games on "talent". I think short of T-Mac making an impact for the 2nd half of the season, 50 losses seem pretty reasonable. And quite frankly, I'd prefer 50 losses over 40 losses. Because at least that means we can at least look forward to the possibility of John Wall.
Lol, people change opinions after every game. When we get a win, everyone's happy. When we lose a game, everyone jumps off the bandwagon.
If mcgrady returns we are an average team. If he doesn't pan out, I have little reason to believe we aren't amongst the league's worst. (yes i know people are going to bring up the 2 throw away games this squad+ron took the lakers in, and no this isn't a new opinion of mine based on a few pre-season games).
john wall is going #1. no ifs and buts. we're not going to get him unless we have a top 3 worst record in the L (unless stern loves houston, which we know he doesn't)
My final thought on the subject... In case some of you weren't paying attention last year, 6 out of 15 teams in the Western Conference lost at least 50 games last year. You have to assume that most of those teams will have improved somewhat. I don't see any teams in the West with bigger questions marks than Houston compared to where they were a year ago. We clearly have the potential to take the biggest fall in record based on what we have available right now. So, like I said before, hurry back Yao! We're going to lose at least 50 games this year. Goodnight everyone...
55 losses is a pretty staggering number when you consider only six teams in the league lost more than that, and five of them ended up changing coaches; the only one that didn't was the Clippers, because the Donald is too cheap to pay for a new coach. I tend to believe that Houston is a 35-40 win team this year (aka, a playoff team in the East). I base my judgement on 3 factors: 1. Rick Adelman's track record. You can't argue with 16 trips to the playoffs in 18 years, with only two losing seasons. It's like betting against the Jazz with Jerry Sloan; he finds a way to get his players in a position to win, every night. 2. Win Shares/Wins Produced. If you look all across the web, you can see that the Rockets are projected to finish with no worse than 45 Losses across several of the most accurate statistical projections: Basketball Reference, Dave Berri's Wages of Wins ,Basketball Prospectus. Now certainly they could be wrong, but more and more, I've come to trust some of the advanced statistics for basketball. 3. Heart/Hustle. I don't believe that you can discount this as easily as some here do. Jeff Van Gundy always loves to say that the gap between the best teams and the worst is not so significant on a day to day basis. Morey has done an excellent job in assembling players who play exceptionally hard every game; a tenacity that caught the Lakers off guard in the playoffs, and most likely, will continue to catch teams mailing it in during the regular season. The NBA season is long and grueling, and if you play hard for 82 games, I believe that getting into the 35-40 win range isn't too difficult.
Put a sack over your head and get some team spirit. This is preseason and you haven't even seen our starting line up yet!!!
I agree this team is going to lose a lot of games, maybe not quite 55 but 45-50 is my guess. I was very discouraged by what I saw in tonight's game. This team just does not have enough talent to compete in the western conference now. We're probably going to struggle to keep up with teams like the Thunders and the Grizzlies.
Caldwell Jones actually lives a couple miles from me........I'll see if he's interested in joining our crew
We won't lose 50+ for several reasons: 1. Team chemistry - Rockets are notorious for having good team chemistry. Only teams with crappy locker room vibes lose that many games. 2. We have enough talent to win 40+ games because of reason number one and because there's plenty of other crappy teams that don't gel like the Rockets do. Plus, we have enough talent to prevent a 50+ losing record. 3. TMac will be back during the regular season and will provide liftoff. 4. Shane Battier is the consummate professional (ok, that sounded like a Clydism) but you know what I mean. He's good at pulling guys together and winning. So, our realistic scenario is a 42-42 09-10 season with Yao returning next season and maybe some off-season shuffling. Then we'll be back to 50+ wins.
I agree somewhat with your numbers ... 55 seems like a lot for an Adelman team. There's going to be injuries during the season that will force Adelman to put out a lineup out there that is less talented than the lineup that is healthy. Or there may be a player dealing with an injury that makes him less effective. It's the nature of the beast. Every team goes through it but we are at a disadvantage because our first unit has already been comprised before the season even started with McGrady and Yao. We're down to relying on our second and third unit. Hustle will only take you so far ... talent eventually catches up with you in such a long season.
Haha, just caught that I mentioned we have enough talent twice in #2. These long hours suck. No work-life balance. I gotta proofread my posts better.
Not going to argue with you there. I feel that this team will struggle. I don't feel brooks is going to be nearly as effective penetrating or shooting. Teams are going to leave hayes to help on brookes, which will not happen when yao is in the lineup. With the lane taken away from him, brookes outside shooting will suffer as well. Scola will have more touches, i feel that he is capable of putting up 15-18 points a night. The problem is that there are so manay dominiante post defenders that was defeding yao last year would be defending scola now. I say his shooting percentage is gonig to decrease. Tmac, like you said, no one knows what its gonig to be like. We thought he was good last year....then we found out he was playing hurt. I am kinda afraid that if i get my hopes up to high, i am going to be disappointed. But if he does return to form, like you said he is older now and probably will not be able to carry a team by himself like he did 3-4 years ago. So i say will miss the playoffs and gaining the 9th or 10th spot. But a 55 loss season? i would say we win a bit more than that. i say around the 40 win mark.
The Shane and Trev combo ain't gonna work. T mac might help, but do you people remember how D Wade was like right after his knee surgery? He only played a handful of games and he was 24 at the time. T slack is 30, theres no way he can play at the level we want him to play.
Have you watched the Rockets play the last couple of years? They've been without Yao and/or McGrady at various times and have performed pretty well. They'll have McGrady back this year. Does the development of the young, talented players on the team not figure into your assessment at all? Most of the top players in the league didn't come into the league as top players. They had to develop. You could have looked at last year's lineup at different points in the season with the same "how many are among the best at their position" rationale and come to the same conclusion that you have with this year's roster. But as a team they were among the best in the NBA. I don't think going through the roster and comparing each player to the others at his position is going to be a very effective or accurate way of assessing the team. The team has lost some talent and shouldn't be as good as last year, but saying they'll lose 50 games is ludicrous.
As depressing as it is to face, I actually think you are about right; throughout the summer I have been predicting the win total to be in the 30-40 range. The Rockets are in the West where this season especially, teams are loaded with size and talent. The Rockets are a bit short on those two. Nevertheless, I think this will be a fun team to watch. They will scrap and claw their way through the season. And, of course, I hope they surprise us.
I said "possibility", not definitely. At least with 50 loses, our chance at the top pick isn't infinitesimal like it is with 40 losses. And there's always the possibility that Wall gets injured a bit and drops his stock.
