Will somebody PLEASE figure out where the ON switch to this offense is and turn it ON! Hire an electrician if you have to.
Same applies to Baker era Cubs and Nationals. Dusty Baker is essentially the baseball version of George Karl. Highly respected, longtime coach, but... CHOKES at every stop. He is not even at Doc Rivers level.
Let’s assume we agree that Dusty is a total crap manager. The worst out there and costs his team more games than nearly any other manager. Now, please show me any serious analysis that shows even the worst manager can have a 13 game impact on a team.
Unless you want to go back and review the last 150 games again that's pretty much a loaded b.s. question. I've watched 99% of them and I know what I saw.
Can confirm, I've watched probably 95% of the games and Dusty's stupid decisions have definitely cost the team. MoRE ReSt!, Lineup construction, bullpen management, etc He is stubborn and either manages by a pre determined plan or his gut.
The most baffling thing is no longer happening at least... batting Straw in 1/2 slot with Tucker buried in the bottom of the lineup. Click took that option away from him. The Maton-mania is... just as bad. The extra inning management leaves a lot to be desired... that former Astros catcher managing in Seattle seems to have figured it out. But the rest issue... clinch then rest instead of having high stress games would seem to be the way to go...
Why is it a loaded question? I’m not arguing Dusty is a good or bad manager. I’m sure you can point to plenty of bad decisions he’s made over 150 games. I’m saying those decisions have very little actual impact on outcomes compared to all other factors. I’ve provided several analysis that show that. I’ve also provided analysis that show he has changed and decisions have followed overall trends. No one has done the opposite. The front office is analytics heavy and knows this too. Dusty was hired for PR and things other than his in game decisions. Whether Dusty is re-hired or not next year will be about PR and those other things, not his in game tactics. Be glad you aren’t a White Sox fan and the Astros didn’t hire LaRussa.
Tucker and Alvarez have had two of the highest percentages of plate appearances with men on base: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-tucker-is-hitting-seventh-and-thats-fine/ Dusty is not making the decision to bat Tucker where he is in isolation from or against the wishes of the front office and analytics people.
Based on Dusty's comments after the trade deadline... don't be so sure about that statement. The front office may give him the players and tell him the analytics, but in the end, the head coach makes the in-game decisions just like D'Antoni and O'Brien did even if against the wishes of the front office
I have no doubt Dusty was upset they traded Straw, or that he’s let influence some individual decisions. In the big picture I don’t think it means he’s ignoring the overall strategy set by the front office. If Dusty is batting Tucker 7th all on his own, then I will give him credit as it’s an analytically sound decision with this particular team. With the thread title and mentions of Pythagorean expected wins, I thought this thread was about trying to quantify Dusty’s impact on the team. I think this thread is really more an outlet to vent about the current losing streak and find someone to blame. As a fan, I’m frustrated too and it’s part of the manager’s job to take the blame. I don’t want to annoy people looking for that outlet or defend individual tactical decisions he’s made, so I think I’m going to bow out of the thread. I know Dusty will provide plenty of reasons to complain over the next 4 games and this thread will go on strong. I hope he continues to provide reasons for us to complain all the way through the World Series.
Current losing streak? I was already on the fire Dusty bandwagon when he was given the extension last year.
If we win it all, it will be in spite of him. But honestly I don't think this team is going very far, something is really not right with this bunch this year. Hope I'm wrong. If we DO win it all I pray Dusty retires. I was livid he got that extension.
For what it's worth, Hinch twice in his Astros career had a -8 or -9 on PYTH (2015, 2018). I don't think any of his years had more wins than the PYTH suggested. He is +3 in Detroit this year though.
2016, and 2017. Amazingly, that 2019 team matched its PYTH, even more remarkable, the 2018 team was better by PYTH than 2019.
2018 team was beat up and injured going into the postseason. 2019 is the best Astros team ever, right there with 2017 and 1998
