I project Dusty Baker's WAR to be -13

Counterpoint: 100+ win teams aren’t signing the current version of Marwin and playing him in meaningful games.

 

I’ve pretty much seen enough of Dusty. He makes decisions in-game that AJ never would. Like the other day bunting Meyers to move a runner and NOT pinch hitting for Maldonado, who of course failed to score the runner from third.

The other thing that continually irritates me is too many off days for our regulars. AJ never rested our star players this much.

His bullpen usage is awful. Exhibit A, Brooks Raley being brought into games with runners on base. This is never a smart idea and has cost the Astros dearly many times. I realize his bullpen is a **** show, but this one really irritates me.

Finally, you never know who is batting where. AJ rarely changed the standard lineup unless a guy was getting an off day. With Dusty, I never know who is on deck unless I check the MLB app. This has to got to frustrate the hell out of our hitters. I imagine this might be one of the reasons why they go into long dry spells offensively.

I pretty much don’t see how Dusty is a better alternative than a lot of other managerial candidates. I really wish we could get AJ back, and Luhnow too. I’m still not sold on Click. I feel like instead of going bargain basement at the deadline Luhnow would have secured one of the top relievers, e.g., Kimbrel.

 

List those teams.

 

That move was more for morale of the infield...

...a good manager also doesn't play the bottom of the bench when he doesn't have to. Stuff like that got Baker in trouble in Chicago, Washington, and San Francisco.

 

I remember the crap Hinch got for letting the bullpen blow a lead in game 7 of the World Series when he had the best pitcher in baseball ready to go in the bullpen. The grass is always greener.

Shockingly, despite all the crap he gets from fans players like playing for Dusty.

 

There was no reason for Maton to be out there in the 9th.

 

Will Harris had an all-star caliber player that year. Remember Verlander gave up a homer on the first batter he faced as a reliever in over a decade.

 

They liked playing for AJ too. I criticized AJ for not leaving Greinke in Game 7 too, but more often than not he made the correct move. So many times where Dusty makes the wrong move, and a lot of it is NOT hindsight.

 

I didn’t say players didn’t like playing for Hinch. The person I was replying to said players didn’t like playing for Dusty which is just wrong. This board was also full of complaints about Hinch’s bullpen usage.

I have at no point said Dusty is a great in game manger. I’ve only said he’s not a -13 WAR manager and managers have way less impact on winning than people think.

 

Seems to be the manager's fault to have interesting bullpen and substitution patterns that has the best players on the bench.

 

Sooo.. does Dusty get credit for pinch hitting Castro there orrr

 

He does... Dusty gives and Dusty takes away.

 

Clutchfans: Everyone in the bullpen sucks
Also Clutchfans: Dusty keeps using pitchers who give up runs. He sucks at bullpen management.

Please show me something that demonstrated manager’s in game decisions have a large impact on outcomes. I have yet to find a serious statistical analysis showing this.

Here’s several that show the opposite:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-managers-are-headed-to-the-hall-of-mediocrity/

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/25691/baseball-therapy-the-thirty-run-manager/

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289768651_Major_League_Baseball_Managers_Do_They_Matter

The second concludes a manger might be worth a few wins, but also puts Dusty right in the middle at about no effect.

Dusty’s trends as a manger have followed baseball overall: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36853/best-bp-2017-dusty-bakers-outdated-reputation/

Any decisions he’s making are not happening in a vacuum completely isolated from the rest of the front office. He’s not a great in game tactical manager, but he hasn’t cost the Astros 13 games and his decisions have way less impact than all the randomness that happens in baseball.

 

Yep. But he also messed up by pitching Maton there. He's an idiot and we had a very fortunate bottom of the 9th

 

Hypothetically if the Astros won the World Series and Baker wants to return, what do you do? Give him 1 year extension or thank him for his service and move on?? The best for him should be him retiring as a champion but if he insisted on coming back, I would reluctantly give him a 1 year deal.

 

If they win the WS I think they keep him for continuity.

 

Don't you think most everyone in this board would have?

 

It doesn’t matter, but I think they’d give him another year. It would look terrible from a PR standpoint.