I have grown to LOVE Clint Mutombo

Possibly. Looks like it in the short term. But neither players career is defined right now.

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ding-clint-capela-improvement-future-all-star

Q: @kpelton Daryl Morey said on radio recently that it's highly unlikely for a player to make significant improvements to their game after their first three years in the league, noting Clint Capela as an exception to that. Do the numbers back up the claim? #peltonmailbag

KP: Appearing on the Dan Le Batard Show earlier this week, Morey said of Capela, "He really improved in his fourth year in the league, which almost never happens." Morey later added that "97 percent of players are pretty much set where their trajectory is going to be after their first three years."

Because Victor Oladipo made one of the largest leaps in NBA history during his fifth season, Capela didn't get as much attention as a candidate for Most Improved Player, but his development was certainly substantial. He went from a .577 player win percentage (the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player metric) to .670, more than doubling his WARP in the process.

Among fourth-year players, Capela's development was notable but not exactly historic. Looking at players who logged at least 1,000 minutes in both their third and fourth seasons, he ranks 43rd in improvement since 1977-78, though the fact that he improved so much while starting at such a high level is unusual. The other players who made larger jumps in their fourth seasons from a winning percentage of .525 or better are pretty strong company: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gilbert Arenas, DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gobert and Scottie Pippen.

Let's consider how likely this kind of development is to happen by a player's experience level. Here's the percentage of qualifying players (again, minimum of 1,000 minutes in both seasons) who improved their player winning percentage by 90 points or better:

Code:

Breakout Seasons By Experience
YEAR    PLAYERS    IMPROVE    PERCENT
1       658         82         12.5
2       843         70         8.3
3       847         50         5.9
4       834         42         5.0
5       758         35         4.6
6       673         34         5.1
7       596         19         3.2
8       516         19         3.7
9       416         19         4.6
10      315         3          1.0

The year here is the player's experience in the first season, so Capela belongs in the Year 3 category. Morey's 97 percent figure is probably a slight exaggeration, since players make Capela-like jumps twice as often as that would imply before we even consider the growth from non-contributor to regular that isn't considered here because the previous minutes total was too low.

It's also worth noting, as we explored earlier this season in a mailbag, that age is the better predictor of development rather than experience. That's obvious among inexperienced players when we run the same chart with age as of the end of the first season rather than years in the league.

Capela was coming off his age-22 season, so his dramatic improvement was about 50 percent relatively more likely when taking age into account rather than experience. Nonetheless, his substantial development makes Capela an exception to the rule.

Given Capela is still just 23 (he'll celebrate his 24th birthday later this month), it's possible he could have more room for growth. In particular, it will be interesting to see if the Rockets continue to extend his minutes during the regular season. After increasing from 23.9 per game during the 2016-17 campaign to 27.5 during the regular season, Capela is playing 31 a night so far in the playoffs. That has helped him boost his scoring average to 15.9 points per game, which along with his 12.8 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and high-percentage finishing makes him a viable All-Star candidate.

Code:

Breakout Seasons By Age
AGE    PLAYERS    IMPROVE    PERCENT
20     100          19          19.0
21     207          29          14.0
22     411          37          9.0
23     653          62          9.5
24     737          41          5.6
25     749          37          4.9
26     744          34          4.6
27     683          38          5.6
28     621          26          4.2
29     547          16          2.9

The number of quality young centers in the Western Conference will work against Capela's All-Star hopes. Already, Gobert (who was injured much of the first half) and Nikola Jokic missed out on this year's team, even with DeMarcus Cousins injured. So despite playing at an All-Star level, Capela will have a tough time being recognized as such.​

 

and now a multi year fat contract is waiting for him next year, taking about smart, i never get Why DH wouldn't just do that

 

He doesn't sound like the kid chasing money he just goes out there and plays. You can see he enjoys the game, he gets hyped up when he does a good play. I think even after his big pay day he still will improve. He better be a rocket next year.

 

Clintombo!

 

4 or 5, he was challenging every shot

 

He is the perfect fit for this team.

DD

 

Max him up MOREY