I Hate Casserly!!!!!

""We're five or six players away from being a good team," he said. "We're not that far away. We don't need to tear the whole structure down and start over."

Maybe our owner needs to get fired too.

 

I don't understand what McNair is waiting for. Put Capers out of his misery. He shouldn't be coaching in the NFL. Casserly is a lying incompetent boob. WTF is going on?

 

Sorry you're in a bad mood, so am I with the recent play of our home team (although I'm finding this the single most remarkable series of games I've ever seen a pro team play).

With regards to rushing big plays (20+ yards), it's kind of funny. This is prior to today's game.

Shaun Alexander-11
Tiki Barber-9
Warrick Dunn-9
Tatum Bell-8
Larry Johnson-8
Cadillac Williams-7
Thomas Jones-7
Tomlinson-6
Droughns-6
Steven Jackson-5
Willie Parker-5
Ronnie Brown-5
Chris Brown-5
Westbrook-5
Greg Jones-5
Willis McGahee-4
Edge James-4
etc., etc., etc., 28 total backs until...

Dom Davis - 2 (tied with 14 others)

Receiving:

There are 12 running backs with at least one reception of 40 yards, DD is not one of them.

He does have 3 of 20+, tying him with 8 others, behind 5 backs with 4 or more.

Now, through 12 games, the Texans have 702 offensive plays from scrimmage (an average of 58 per game), Dom Davis has touched the ball on 240 plays (208 rush, 32 receptions) in 10 games. I don't know how many plays the Texans ran in the two games he missed, but let's estimate a lower than the average at an even 50 per game. That is 602 total offensive plays in the 10 games Davis played. He touched the ball for 39.8% of the plays. He has had 2 runs of 20+ yards and 3 receptions of 20+ yards.

Let's take one of the more awful teams in the league, like us. That team can be Cleveland. Through 12 games, they have had 695 plays from scrimmage. Reuben Droughns has touched the ball 272 times (241 rush, 31 recept.) that's 39.1% of the Browns plays. He has 6 rushes of 20+ yards, 3 receptions of 20+ yards, and one of 40+ yards. In regards to the Texan's line, yeah, it's garbage, but I don't think it's much worse than Cleveland's

In regards to the Texans running DD all the time, let's see. I estimated he touched the ball on 39.8% of the Texan's offensive plays. Shaun Alexander touches the ball on 37.6% of the Seahawk's plays, Portis on 34.6% of Washington's plays, McGahee has 39.7%, and LT2 touches the ball on 40.2% of the Bolt's plays. Seems to me like the Texans kind of force feed Dom the ball just a tad.

Look, I'm really not trying to hate on Davis at all, in my opinion he's actually a good back who can do some nice things. Bush has got the potential to be really, really special.

 

Nice analysis. Why would you count receptions as touches, though? We don't know if those plays were designed for DD as opposed to just broken plays and dump-offs by Carr (before getting sacked). If you discounted receptions and focused on running plays, DD only accounts for 34.5% of those 602 plays (I'll use your assumption), yet Droughns still accounts for 39.1% of Cleveland's plays. For the season (prior to today), Houston has run the ball 322 times, Cleveland 301. DD accounts for 64.6% of all running plays; Droughns 80%. Therefore, Droughns has had more opportunities (behind a better line that CREATES BIGGER HOLES) to shine. And oh, Droughns, with 16% more carries than DD, STILL has the same number of TDs as DD. DD is projected by ESPN (prior to today's 139 yard performance) to end the season with 1,116 yards rushing. For a guy who missed 2 games and plays behind arguably the worst O-line in NFL history, that's really not bad.

 

I wish there was a way to factor in the performance of an O-line, like establishing an O-line beta or something (the way risk is weighted in business). That would really help in these type of discussions in terms of normalizing running backs stats. Too many factors involved, I guess.

 

ok, it looks like we're getting the overall number 1 pick. i'm a fan of Double D and i dont think we need to draft bush, even though he's such a tremendous talent. DD has played very well for this team. he's not a weakness of the texans but he's a strength. true, he's not a legitimate threat to take it all the way but he always weaves and keeps churning for yards when he touches the ball. I bet any team in the nfl would like to have a RB who can get about 1500 yds from line scrimmage like DD. if i were the gm, i would trade the number 1 pick for number 5 or 6th pick, 1st round next year, and 3rd round pick this year. i would draft a.j hawk for this pathetic texans defense. a.j hawk has look and ability of urlacher and ray lewis. he also provide some much needed leadership for the defense. i think capers would be gone and the new coach will implement a 4-3 def scheme. LBs would be above avg with hawk, wong, and greenwood at the starting positions. maybe, we need to be babin back at a the def end position b/c he's not suited at a pass rushing OLB. Back to the draft strategy, 2nd round pick would be a best available o-lineman. i would keep pitts at LT since i think he'll be fine there so far. wiegert needs to go b/c too many injuries for the past few years and mckinney needs to go as well imo. the three 3-round picks would be a solid DE prospect with a high motor, a nice tall CB with some height to play against the tall receivers (dunta would play against the speedy receivers), and finally TE who can be a threat to make first downs and be the safety guy for carr. 4th round pick, i would pick up another best available o-lineman. 5th, 6th, and 7th round picks, i would pick up best available players. definately, this team wont be playoff-worthy for at least 2 years.

 

(In my best Elvis voice) Uuhhhh, thank you, thank you very much for the kind words.

Now back to topic.

First of all, why would you not consider receptions as touches? Granted, we don't know how many of Davis' catches are dump-offs from a panicked Carr, but is that really relevent? That is one of the most important skills that a running back can have and admittedly Davis has it. It has also been a valuable weapon in the Texans' anemic offense, they'll take what they can get I'm sure.

Also, if you do remove the receptions from the statiscal analysis of both players, Davis does account for 34.5% of the Texans plays, but Droughns accounts for 34.6% of the Browns' plays, not 39.1%.

Also, your reasoning is wrong regarding to the percentage of rushing attempts taken by each respective player for their teams. Yes, Droughns has carried the ball on 80% of Cleveland's attempts, but Davis has taken a higher percentage of the Texans' carries than the 64.6% that you claim. Remember, the Texans' total attempts of 322 carries is through 12 games, wheras Davis has only played in 10. In the two games that Dom missed, we totaled 47 rushing attempts. Subtracting those from the total rushing attempts, we have Davis accounting for 75.6% of the Texans' rushing attempts in the games in which he played. Also, through the games that both players have played, Davis actually has more rushing attempts per game than Droughns (20.8 per game vs. 20.1).

Should we take Carr's mad scrambles out of the rushing attempt equations? Sure, let's. Carr (up until today's game) has 51 rushes. Trent Dilfer has 20. So, subtracting those from each team's totals, Cleveland has rushed 288 times. That puts Droughns at 83.7%. I don't know how many times Carr rushed in the two games that Davis missed, but let's say he did more than his average of 4.25 per game up to 5 each time. So that's 41 times in the games that Dom played. So that's 234 rushing attempts in the games that Davis played. That's a whopping 88.8% of the Texans' rushing attempts.

So, basically, Davis has rushed more times than Droughns has, and the sandwich has the same number of touchdowns, more rushes of 20+ yards or more (6 to 2), and a higher yard per game average (85.8 to 83.7).

Also, I don't think that the Texans' line this year is arguably the worst in NFL history (at least in respects to run-blocking). Heck, they rank in the top third in per-attempt average (oh my gosh, Arizona and Carolina both average 3.1 per carry, that sucks) and just about the middle (17 out of 32) in rushing yards per game.

Now in regards to pass blocking....well, they kind of suck. But really not a whole lot worse than Minnesota or St. Louis who both have 1st round picks as left tackle..

 

How much of this is DD? It's almost like a chicken or egg argument here. Also, how often is the O Line worst at pass blocking and above average in run blocking?

I agree with you that Bush will pull off more long runs than DD though.

 

As I stated earlier in this thread, don't get me wrong, I don't think Davis sucks. He is a good running back. But as far as I can tell, that's all he is, is good. I do know though that the Texans' per rush average is higher than Indy's, Tampa's & Buffalo's. I also don't think that Davis is as good as James, Williams, or McGahee.

 

The real question is: Is DD playing for his job now? Why all of a sudden is he averaging 6 yards a carry every week?



This is coming from someone who hasn't watched the games, mind you....I'm from out of town, and had to work...

 

The O-line is much better at run blocking than pass blocking. Dont know why, but they just protect the run a lot better, atleast from what i see.

DD not only runs the ball a lot, but he takes a lot of catches too from Carr. Both should be seen when comparing DD and Bush. Bush takes a lot of receptions and is a better reciever than DD. With Andre always getting doubled, Bush will complement him well.

1 TD every 15 touches by Reggie.

 

DD has really stepped up the past 2 games. Really fighting for that yardage. Gotta say, keep it up, might just keep his spot on the Texans.

 

Some of you guys keep promoting the 'use the pick and get better through more picks/trades' approach.

As though our current team was capable of not screwing that up.

I wonder where you guys get that from.

 

Look, I applaud your efforts, but we could go round and round on this all day. With a lot of your points, you're resorting to assumptions, and that just doesn't work, as a small change in numbers may impact the results in a huge way. I wanted to remove receptions since I feel they skew the data (data integrity is key). However, that in itself is an assumption as well. Unless we go game-by-game, play-by-play, we can both manipulate any assumptions and numbers to our advantage, and we'll never get anywhere. Let's stop the nitty-gritty, as we're getting away from the point.

Domanick Davis has been a model of consistency. In 3 years, he has rushed for 1,000 yards every season. Other running backs have amassed huge yardage one year and then have gotten injured for the season in another (Green, Holmes, McAllister). DD has not. In the past 3 years, only 9 players have rushed for more yardage. So why do the Texans need Reggie Bush? Furthermore, even if running back were a concern for the Texans, the defense should have first priority, anyway. In 3 seasons, the Texans have given up an average 364 yards/game, easily the worst team in that period.

Your answer must be double-spaced with 1" margins no larger than 12 point font. Partial credit will be rewarded. Please show any calculations.

 

vote Bush for Texans


Texans 50%

 

I appreciate that you appreciate all my attempts at due diligence.

Yes, I agree that Domanick Davis has been a very consistent running back that has gone far beyond the expectations typically reserved for a third-round skill position player. Originally drafted as a third down specialist and punt returner, he was thrust into the starting line up and performed admirably.

The whole point of all my posts was that I feel he is a decent running back on par with many other backs throughout the league.

Reggie Bush is truly something special.

Let me qualify all of this by saying that I lived 25 years in Houston & then attended USC, so there is definitely the possiblility that I am biased. Of course I attended during the Larry Smith & Paul Hackett (oh my God that sucked) years, so I never got to enjoy first hand the success that my Trojans are enjoying now.

That being said I have watched most of his games the past three years, and still find myself amazed by the things he pulls off. From his first game at Auburn where he did not do a damn thing, to his demolition of Jimmy Williams and Virginia Tech, to this probably final year for him at 'SC. The dude is astounding. Contrary to some beliefs that I see often on this board, he does pick up the blitz, he does run between the tackles, and he does run with power as well as agility.

With Bush, the Texans have the opportunity to use the freaking swiss army knife of football to carve up opossing defenses. When Bush gets the ball in the open field, he is a legitimate threat to go the distance every time. Davis cannot do that with any degree of consitency. Don't underestimate what a 20+ yard big play can do for your team. I don't feel that Davis, despite his statistical accomplishments, is considered a huge threat to most teams that we play against. Teams don't have to stack the box, there is very little unpredictability to our offense, and teams can blitz their linebackers at will because there is little fear that if Davis gets behind them that there will be any significant repercussions.

Yes, our defense is brutal (not in the good way), but over the past few years we have taken steps to address that. Dunta Robinson is excellent. Um. C.C. Brown appears to try hard, Travis Johnson is young, and Jason Babin has some of the cooler Seth Gecko-inspired tatoos that I have seen lately.

Seriously, don't you agree that our defensive statistics are a little skewed because they are on the field so freaking much? Also, I am not a defensive coordinator, but it seems that our personnell would be significantly more suited to a 4-3. Wong was a 4-3 'backer in Minn., Greenwood is small & fast (not really a guy that can shed guards that I can tell) and Babin seems to me that he would be a much more servicable DE than OLB. Travis Johnson was allegedly much more dangerous as a 4-3 tackle at FSU than a 3-4 nose. Robaire Smith did not completely bite when he was with Tenn. in the 4-3. I personally freaked out when we passed on Derrick Johnson because he "did not fit our scheme". Seems to me that you should adjust your scheme in relation to your talent & not vice-versa.

Oh well, it's late, what the hell do I know anyway?

 

No, he's absolutely correct.

He's correct if those six players are Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, LaDanian Tomlinson, Ray Lewis, Dwight Freeney, and Champ Bailey. See? Only six players away from being a good team

 

Clark Kent couldn't get us to the playoffs next year,so we need to take Bush and see what happens.That could get other players excited about coming here in free agency and we could get lucky somewhere along the line.I also remember people saying the same thing about Warrick Dunn not being a 20 carry back either and the Bucs bought it when he was there.The Falcons didn't listen to it and wow what do you know he can handle the workload,and Bush is much larger then Dunn and could add more muscle to handle the pounding.

 

Casserly has already ruined the franchise single handedly.

If he is drafting it doesn't matter what he does with the top pick, the overall draft will be a negative.

If Casserly stays on it may take another couple years for him to be fired, and by that time the game attendence will be about half what it is.

30+ draft picks- 9 starters, 2 impact players
0- free agent impact players
after 4 seasons draft needs- 12 starters
Buchanon- bust
Tony Hollings- bust
Babin- bust
Seth Wand- bust
All first day picks, plus we gave up 5 first day picks for the joy of having Buchanon and Babin - two players that couldn't start anywhere else.

I am not much of a Casserly fan.